Alliance consulting: It is expected that by the end of this year, TOPCon's production capacity will exceed 900GW, and it will remain mainstream for the next five years.

According to TrendForce, the evolution of photovoltaic technology has always revolved around the underlying logic of "cost reduction and efficiency improvement". The evolution and innovation of various technologies also reflect the stage development of the industry and factors such as market demand. TrendForce believes that the rapid cost reduction and efficiency improvement brought by N-type technology has led to the rapid growth of N-type products. By the end of 2024, the production capacity of N-type cells is expected to reach about 1078GW, accounting for 76% of the total. TOPCon, as the most mature and cost-effective technology in the N-type category, has clearly become the mainstream technology trend for the next 5 years and a solid choice for market-leading companies. According to TrendForce data, TOPCon production capacity is expected to surpass 900GW by the end of 2024. N-type technology future development roadmap: TOPCon/perovskite stack cell With the rapid iteration of battery technology, N-type TOPCon has undoubtedly firmly established itself as the mainstream and the competitive landscape has been reshaped. TrendForce indicates that starting from 2025, leading companies will enter the TOPCon 2.0 era, accelerating technological iteration. Looking at the iteration and development trend of TOPCon technology, it is expected that TOPCon 2.0 will mature and go into mass production with the double-sided Poly technology. Meanwhile, leading manufacturers have been researching and developing TOPCon 3.0 technology, mainly focusing on perovskite or BC stack cells. Amidst the backdrop of various technologies like BC, HJT, perovskite, etc., the future technological direction of the PV industry is of great interest. Stack cells are seen as the preferred solution for the extended life cycle of TOPCon, as the industry generally believes that continued improvement in conversion efficiency will rely on stack cell technology. The crystalline silicon/perovskite stack cell, as the mainstream technology for the next generation of high-efficiency CECEP Solar Energy cells, has a theoretical maximum efficiency of up to 43%, far surpassing the limit of single-junction solar cells (33.7%). It has clear advantages in improving PV conversion efficiency and reducing kWh costs. The structure of stack cells can effectively integrate the advantages of different materials, enhancing the overall efficiency and stability of the cells. According to TrendForce analysts, there are currently two main stack cell solutions. One is the BC and perovskite route, where the stack BC needs to widen the gap with the double-sided Poly to establish its competitive advantage in efficiency. The other is the TOPCon stack perovskite, which has a significant potential for improving theoretical conversion efficiency, making it more advantageous compared to other technologies in terms of efficiency improvement, product applications, and technological development prospects. Considering the current trend, TOPCon will remain the mainstream technology for the next 5 years. After entering the stack era, as a base cell more suitable for stack cells, the TOPCon+perovskite stack cell technology will continue to show strong vitality.