The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has dropped to the lowest in a month, showing continued resilience in the labor market.

As of last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped to the lowest level in a month, consistent with occasional signs of slight cooling in non-farm employment data, but still in line with overall resilient market expectations for the U.S. labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that for the week ending December 21, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by about 1,000 compared to the previous week's statistics, seasonally adjusted to 219,000 people, better than the general expectation of economists of 224,000 people. The latest data on continued claims for unemployment benefits hit the highest level in over three years, showing that it is taking longer for unemployed individuals to find work. The continued decrease in initial claims for unemployment benefits indicates that businesses opting for layoffs are still very few, with many companies still preferring to retain high-quality employees through wage increases. These two latest data points outline a slightly cooling labor market, but there is still no sign of a "labor crack" crisis in the U.S. economy. Data shows that for the week ending December 14, continued claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased by 46,000, seasonally adjusted to approximately 1.91 million, hitting the highest level since November 2021, exceeding the general expectation of economists of 1.88 million people. This data aligns with other economic indicators showing that it is becoming increasingly difficult for American job seekers to find work compared to the high inflation period of the past two years. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated last week that the U.S. labor market remains "in good shape," but policymakers at the Federal Reserve are closely monitoring any signs of deterioration in the labor market. Powell said in a press conference after the rate decision that the U.S. labor market is slightly cooling, but it will not trigger concerns of a collapse in the labor market or an economic recession. A series of economic data this year, including strong consumer spending, persistent service inflation, stable overall unemployment rate, and consistently lower-than-expected initial claims for unemployment benefits, show significant inflation in the U.S. and a relatively healthy labor market. Although the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut as expected by the market, the latest "dot plot" shows that expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have been significantly reduced from four times in the previous quarter to two times, with expectations for 2026 rate hikes and the market's focus on the "neutral rate" also raised, forcing the market to reprice rate cut expectations. Some Federal Reserve officials are even starting to weigh in on Trump's policy expectations, as indicated by the "dot plot" showing a hawkish stance on rates, the Fed's economic outlook showing PCE inflation far above the core logic of the previous quarter's expectations, and Fed officials expecting the pro-economic growth policies implemented by Trump will help sustain U.S. unemployment rate stability after his inauguration, rather than trend downward as expected by the market. Following the release of the dot plot and Powell's press conference, pricing of futures contracts for rate cuts next year also decreased significantly, even starting to price in no rate cuts next year. A recent forecast by Deutsche Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts next year and the loose cycle will largely stagnate. Economist Elisa Wenig of Bloomberg Economics stated after the release of Thursday's unemployment claims data, "The overall number of initial claims for unemployment benefits this year is lower, reflecting a low uptake rate of unemployment benefits - some people are unable to claim benefits because they do not qualify, and those who do qualify lack the motivation to apply for benefits as they believe finding work is still relatively easy. The increasing number of continued claims for unemployment benefits means that laid-off workers are facing longer periods of unemployment, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market."