Silicon Association: Monocrystalline silicon wafer supply is turning towards a situation of demand outstripping supply, a new round of price increases is ready to be launched.

On December 26th, the silicon industry branch announced that this week, the price of silicon wafers has remained stable. The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130m/256mm) has stayed at 1.05 RMB per wafer; N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130m) have maintained an average transaction price of 1.16 RMB per wafer; N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/150m) have kept an average transaction price of 1.4 RMB per wafer. Some specific sizes have seen a slight decrease in prices, but this has not had a significant impact on the overall prices. The supply of silicon wafers is shifting towards being unable to meet demand, so discussions are currently underway for a new round of price increases in both the upstream and downstream sectors. The main reason for the temporary stability of silicon wafer prices this week is the bargaining between the upstream and downstream sectors. Specifically, the acceptance of new price quotes for N-type G10L and G12 specifications is high, but the capacity for G12R has faced difficulties in raising prices due to a rapid switch in production in the previous period, with downstream demand not catching up in time. This week, frontline enterprises have started to increase their production rates, and monthly output expectations will also be raised. There are two main reasons for this: firstly, downstream demand is increasing, and the previously accumulated silicon wafer inventory is almost depleted; secondly, profit situations have improved, as calculated based on current raw material prices, with major companies experiencing a significant improvement in profitability. Specifically, the production rates of two frontline enterprises have been increased to 60% and 55% respectively this week, while the production rate of integrated enterprises is maintained between 50%-60%, and the remaining enterprises have adjusted their production rates to between 40%-80%. This week, the prices of battery modules have remained stable, with M10 monocrystalline TOPCon battery cells maintaining a transaction price of 0.28 RMB per watt; 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules maintaining a price of 0.68 RMB per watt. This week, Tongwei's battery prices have increased to 0.285 RMB per watt, and this price is likely to be accepted next week. There is a differentiation trend in the end-of-year prices of components, with prices for distributed systems showing an upward trend and prices for centralized systems fluctuating at the bottom. In public bids for large ground-mounted solar power stations, there are still instances of prioritizing price over quality, and the premium created by brand effect needs to be raised. Based on the above analysis, the phenomenon of supply shortages in silicon wafers is becoming increasingly apparent, therefore a price increase is a high probability event. The focus going forward will be on whether the price increase in the upstream sector can effectively transmit to the component sector.