Union Consultancy: This week, the upstream report of rising energy in photovoltaic silicon wafers and silicon materials is sufficient, but downstream demand is weak, suppressing module prices.

On December 26th, Jiabang Consultancy released the prices for the PV market. The transaction volume of polycrystalline silicon was running low this week, still mainly transitioning from previous orders to the next round of negotiations for signing new contracts, with some small orders coming from temporary low-priced scattered orders and trader orders. This week, domestic silicon prices stabilized, and the mentality of buying high and not buying low may eliminate the negative impact of poor downstream demand on the price of polycrystalline silicon. Silicon Materials Sector This week's silicon material prices: the mainstream transaction price for single crystal recycled material is 37 Yuan/KG, while the mainstream transaction price for single crystal dense material is 35 Yuan/KG; N-type material is quoted at 40 Yuan/KG. Trading Dynamics The transaction volume of polycrystalline silicon was running low this week, still mainly transitioning from previous orders to the next round of negotiations for signing new contracts, with some small orders coming from temporary low-priced scattered orders and trader orders. Supply Relationships Polycrystalline silicon futures were listed today, and manufacturers had generally reached a consensus at the beginning of the month to stabilize prices, vigorously promote production reduction and suspension to lay the groundwork for the current price; as of the time of writing, the first day saw a high opening, higher than the benchmark price of 38,600 Yuan/ton; taking inventory into consideration, there may be opportunities for arbitrage with some low-cost silicon materials in the summer of 24Q2-Q3, and it is expected that a significant amount of inventory will flow to the futures market, tightening the circulation of the spot market, and the marginal supply and demand of silicon materials will significantly benefit from the listing of polycrystalline silicon futures and a decrease in the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of silicon materials; the price of silicon materials in 25Q1 may reach a turning point, but it still needs to be viewed cautiously considering the risk of a further slowdown in downstream demand during the slow season; if the path of rising polycrystalline silicon is opened up, it is not ruled out that, under the mentality of buying high and not buying low, the overall prices of the industry chain may be raised, but all of this is predicated on the resilience of the consensus among silicon material manufacturers to maintain low-production capacity. Price Trends Domestic silicon material prices stabilized this week, and the mentality of buying high and not buying low may eliminate the negative impact of poor downstream demand on the price of polycrystalline silicon. Silicon Wafer Sector This week's silicon wafer prices: the mainstream transaction price for P-type M10 silicon wafer is 1.10 Yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price for P-type G12 is 1.65 Yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 silicon wafer is 1.05 Yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price for N-type G12 is 1.40 Yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price for N-type G12R silicon wafer is 1.12 Yuan/piece. Inventory Dynamics The inventory of silicon wafers has been cleared well, with downstream battery high production combined with the continuous low operating conditions at the silicon wafer end, This week's external silicon wafer inventory has fallen back to around 2.5 billion pieces, providing rigid support for the price increase for some sizes. Supply and Demand Dynamics The supply and demand for 183N and 210N types remains tight, as the supply side is approaching the implementation date of the self-discipline convention in January 2025, it is expected to increase the constraints on production output, while the demand is further strengthened by the variable of the bullish sentiment downstream, leading to an improvement in the supply and demand margin and enhancing the upward momentum of prices; some manufacturers have already raised prices for silicon wafers of various sizes in January, and will continue to observe the actual acceptance level of customers. Price Trends Intra-week, the prices of silicon wafers have stabilized, with some manufacturers showing strong intentions to raise prices, increasing the likelihood of a gradual increase after the obvious effects of inventory clearance, however, the constraints of the self-discipline production reduction alliance may lead to disputes over profit distribution after the price rebound. Battery Wafer Sector This week's battery wafer prices: the mainstream transaction price for M10 battery wafer is 0.270 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for G12 battery wafer is 0.270 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for M10 single crystal TOPCon battery is 0.275 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal TOPCon battery is 0.280 Yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price for G12R single crystal TOPCon battery is 0.260 Yuan/W. Supply and Demand Dynamics Based on stable inventory levels and price increases in the upstream sector, battery wafer manufacturers also have intentions to raise prices, with some leading specialized manufacturers raising the price of N-type 183 by 0.05 Yuan/W, but under the pressure of multiple factors such as extended holidays for downstream components and subdued demand, the difficulty of bargaining increases. Price Trends This week, prices for various specifications have stabilized, and there are challenges in raising prices for battery wafers. Component Sector This week's component prices: the mainstream transaction price for 182 monocrystalline PERC components is 0.69 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for 210 monocrystalline PERC components is 0.70 Yuan/W, the transaction price for 182 double-sided monocrystalline PERC components is 0.70 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for 210 double-sided monocrystalline PERC components is 0.71 Yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price for 182 double-sided monocrystalline TOPCon components is 0.72 Yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price for 210 double-sided HJT components is 0.86 Yuan/W. Supply Relationships With the downgrading of component production in December, both domestically and internationally nearing the holidays, demand is relatively sluggish, and component manufacturers' order intake for the first quarter of the year is not optimistic, with many manufacturers expecting early holidays or extended holidays; there is a phenomenon of contrasting component prices, with hot quotes and cold actual transaction prices. Price Trends This week, prices for various types of components have stabilized, with the mainstream manufacturers offering a price range of 0.63-0.70 Yuan/W for double-sided M10-TOPCon components; for double-sided G12-HJT components, the mainstream manufacturers' price range is concentrated in the range of 0.65-0.80 Yuan/W, with HJT special offer inventory components priced below 0.65 Yuan/W; the cold market for distributed generation has left various types of discounted components in a situation of circulation at super-low prices but with no takers; some manufacturers have reduced the prices of high-power TOPCon components by 0.01-0.03/W, with clearance sales considerations. Overall, the text provides a detailed analysis of the prices, trading dynamics, supply relationships, supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and inventory dynamics in the PV market for various components and materials.