CITIC SEC: The supply-demand gap of molybdenum may continue to expand and the molybdenum price central tendency is increasing.

CITIC SEC releases a research report stating that under the background of industrial upgrading and energy transformation, the demand for advanced steel materials such as high-end molybdenum-containing stainless steel in the wind power, automotive, and petrochemical industries is expected to steadily increase. It is estimated that the global demand for molybdenum metal will increase to 322,000 tons by 2026, with a corresponding CAGR of 4.0% from 2023 to 2026. On the supply side, declining ore grades and geopolitical factors will continue to constrain molybdenum mining. It is expected that overseas supply will shrink, domestic expansion projects will have limited incremental capacity in the short term, and the widening supply-demand gap is expected to drive the central price of molybdenum upwards, recommending leading companies in the molybdenum industry. Key points from CITIC SEC: - Manufacturing industry upgrading, the proportion of high-end molybdenum-containing stainless steel is expected to increase. - Under the international consensus of energy transformation, the demand for advanced steel materials in the wind power, automotive, and petrochemical industries remains strong. - Domestic contributions are the main source of additional molybdenum mining, while overseas supply is shrinking. Investment strategy: Under the background of industrial upgrading and energy transformation, the demand for high-end molybdenum-containing stainless steel and advanced steel materials in the wind power, automotive, and petrochemical industries is expected to steadily increase. It is estimated that the global demand for molybdenum metal will increase to 322,000 tons by 2026, with a corresponding CAGR of 4.0% from 2023 to 2026. On the supply side, declining ore grades and geopolitical factors will continue to constrain molybdenum mining. It is expected that overseas supply will shrink, domestic expansion projects will have limited incremental capacity in the short term, and the widening supply-demand gap is expected to drive the central price of molybdenum upwards. Risk factors: Unexpected delays in the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry, slower growth in downstream demand, unexpected increases in molybdenum production, risks of frequent natural disasters in mines, and risks of escalating geopolitical conflicts.