Canalys: In the third quarter, the shipment of PCs in the United States increased by 7% year-on-year to reach 17.9 million units.

Canalys data shows that in the third quarter of 2024, PC shipments (excluding tablets) in the United States increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 17.9 million units. Among them, laptops were the main driver, with a 9% year-on-year increase in shipments. Looking ahead, the recovery of the US PC market is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than previously expected, due to the weakening momentum of the Windows replacement cycle and the adverse impact of macroeconomic policies. It is estimated that the total PC shipments in the United States in 2024 will increase by 6%, reaching close to 70 million units, and then the growth rate will slow down to 2% in 2025 and 2026. In the second half of 2024, commercial demand remained strong, with a 12% increase in shipments in the third quarter in the commercial market. The replacement upgrade for Windows 11 is still ongoing, and the performance of the commercial market is expected to remain strong, at least until early 2025. Canalys analyst Greg Davis said: "While previous growth mainly came from the consumer market, the commercial market has become the dominant sector of the US PC market. As we enter the second half of the year, both large and small businesses are significantly increasing their PC refresh efforts for Windows 11 devices. In the consumer sector, seasonal promotions around Black Friday and Cyber Monday will help drive shipment growth in the fourth quarter." Although Microsoft and its partners will be working throughout 2025 to raise awareness of the end of Windows 10 services, Canalys expects that a significant portion of device updates will occur after the service termination date. This is because the current transition speed is relatively slow, especially with only 10 months left until the final deadline in October 2025, and many existing users are still using Windows 10. Expectations for the PC market in 2025 and beyond have also been revised downward due to potential policy changes that the new government may implement. Canalys analyst Greg Davis said: "With the dust settling from the 2024 US presidential election, US macroeconomic conditions are not expected to be as stable in the short term as they have been in the past one or two years. There are reports that import tariffs may be imminent, which will have a significant impact on the PC market." Research from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) indicates that proposed tariffs could lead to price increases of up to 46%, bringing downside risks to market forecasts. Supply chain signals indicate that there may be a buildup of inventory at the beginning of 2025 to cope with expectations of price increases, leading to seasonal adjustments in shipment volume next year. Davis further pointed out: "Looking ahead, budget cuts in government departments are a potential risk, particularly in the federal government and education sectors in PC procurement. Although the budget for 2025 is unlikely to be affected, we expect a decline in technology spending in these areas in the future."