Passenger Vehicle Association: From December 1st to 22nd, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the market reached 1.692 million units, an increase of 25% compared to the same period last year.

On December 25, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data. From December 1 to 22, retail sales of passenger vehicles in the market reached 1.692 million units, a 25% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 14% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reached 21.95 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year. From December 1 to 22, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 1.77 million units, a 30% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 1% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale reached 25.886 million units, a 7% increase year-on-year. From December 1 to 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 817,000 units, a 60% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 4% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reached 10.413 million units, a 43% increase year-on-year. From December 1 to 22, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 913,000 units of new energy vehicles, a 56% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 1% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale reached 11.631 million units, a 39% increase year-on-year. 1. The national passenger vehicle market started off strong in December 2024 In the first week of December, the daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in the market were 63,000 units, a 32% increase compared to the same period last December, and an 11% increase compared to the previous month. In the second week of December, the daily retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 83,000 units, a 36% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 17% increase compared to the previous month. In the third week of December, the daily retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 87,000 units, an 11% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 14% increase compared to the previous month. From December 1 to 22, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the market reached 1.692 million units, a 25% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 14% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reached 21.95 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year. Encouraged by the national scrappage and renewal policy and the subsidies for trading in old vehicles for new in various regions, recent car purchases have shown strong growth. Especially the higher subsidies for electric vehicles in various regions compared to gasoline vehicles, and the smaller gap in subsidies in many places, have achieved a trend of fair competition between electric and gasoline vehicles, which is a significant highlight of local policies. The national scrappage and renewal policy has a strong focus on new energy vehicles, and after the balance of local policies, the pressure on dealers' survival is improving. The scrappage and renewal work supported mainly by central funds at the end of December and the cessation of subsidies due to insufficient funds in some regions will all promote car purchases at the year-end, leading to a bustling market in the first two weeks of December. The increase in regions temporarily suspending subsidies in the past two weeks is conducive to shifting consumption from this year to January next year, achieving a better balance. Currently, the goal of the scrappage and renewal policy is to consume the peak retention volume of gasoline vehicles from 2015 to 2020 within six months. This short timeframe is not enough to consume the retention volume of over a hundred million vehicles, and the price gap created by the policy's additional effects can easily trigger strong market wait-and-see sentiments. We also hope that the country can clarify the follow-up subsidy policy early, stabilize consumer sentiment as soon as possible, and achieve stable and sustainable consumption. Considering the pressure of weak sales at the beginning of 2025, we expect the implementation of a policy in January to reduce the vehicle purchase tax for first-time buyers of gasoline vehicles by half, balancing the benefits of the replacement and first-time buyers, allowing middle and low-income first-time buyers to enjoy policy benefits when buying cars as well. 2. The sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers nationwide started off strong in December 2024 In the first week of December, the daily wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers were 71,000 units, a 55% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 6% increase compared to the previous month. In the second week of December, the daily wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 82,000 units, a 26% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 1% increase compared to the previous month. In the third week of December, the daily wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers reached 90,000 units, a 16% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 2% decrease compared to the previous month. From December 1 to 22, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 1.77 million units, a 30% increase compared to the same period last December, and a 1% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale reached 25.886 million units, a 7% increase year-on-year. The sales trend of manufacturers in December is relatively strong. The replacement policy is starting to take over the scrappage subsidy policy, igniting the market; the scrappage policy is better for new energy vehicles, and its effects will gradually diminish in the future. However, the stimulus effect of the replacement policy is greater than that of the scrappage policy, especially for gasoline vehicles. 2024 is a big year for car consumption, while 2025 is a small year for car consumption. Specifically, the Spring Festival of 2025 falls on January 28, 13 days earlier than 2024, overlapping with equipment maintenance and holiday arrangements for companies, tax authorities, and vehicle management offices, leading to some pre-Spring Festival car purchases being completed at the end of 2024. Due to the good sales completion rate of leading enterprises this year, it is expected that a large-scale transfer of sales from December to January next year will occur, which will have a good balancing effect on sales at the end and beginning of the year. The destocking efforts of the passenger vehicle industry this year are exceptionally strong, as joint venture automakers continue to destock, combined with recent overall cautious production, resulting in a strong destocking trend in domestic manufacturers and channel inventories of passenger vehicles from January to November. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by 210,000 units (increasing by 50,000 units) compared to the same period last year from January to November. The channel inventory of overall domestic passenger vehicles decreased by 520,000 units (increasing by 30,000 units) compared to the same period last year. Destocking has become the mainstream strategy. However, from November to December, it is a seasonal period for increasing inventories in the passenger vehicle market, as demand for car purchases is strong from winter to the Spring Festival. Therefore, there is a reasonable demand for inventory in December, and dealers are stocking up quickly in December, reflecting an improvement in channel confidence. 3. Nationwide passenger car market inventory at the end of November was 3.2 million units, with a 50-day supply The national passenger car market is still in a strong destocking cycle this year, starting actively from the beginning of the year and extending to August, followed by a passive destocking phase from September to November. With the diminishing impact of factors such as the retreat of anticipation brought by expected stimulus policies and the release of consumer enthusiasm driven by the scrappage policy, manufacturers expanded production in November to stimulate the market, and the trend for new energy vehicles in November was good. By the end of November 2024, the national inventory of passenger cars reached 3.2 million units, an increase of 230,000 units from the previous month, and a decrease of 720,000 units compared to November 2023, suggesting a continued trend of destocking.Compared to November 2022, sales were 740,000 units lower in November 2024. The current sluggish fuel car market has brought overall caution to manufacturers, with significant production improvements before the year-end sprint. The existing inventory support for sales days at the end of November 2024 is estimated to be 50 days when combined with future sales, compared to 72 days in November 2022 and 62 days in November 2023, all showing a significant decrease. Overall inventory pressure is not great.4. Characteristics of Domestic Insurance for Commercial Vehicles in November 2024 According to data from the National Financial Bureau on compulsory insurance, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in January-November 2024 reached 500,000 units, an 80% year-on-year increase; in November 2024, it reached 63,000 units, a 69% year-on-year increase. From January to November 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in the commercial vehicle market reached 19%, with the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in November reaching 25%, a 9 percentage point increase from November last year. The performance of the new energy light commercial vehicle market and others is relatively strong under policy support. Domestic commercial vehicle insurance data experienced strong growth before 2021, but entered a period of slow growth in the past two years. Due to complex factors such as the Spring Festival, domestic commercial vehicle insurance performance was temporarily lackluster in January-February this year, but saw a significant increase in March after the holiday period. From April to November, the data for commercial vehicle insurance continued to decline. From January to November in 2024, domestic insurance for commercial vehicles achieved 2.57 million units, a 2% year-on-year decrease; in November, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 250,000 units, a 7% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month. In recent years, the export market for fuel vehicles has seen explosive growth, while the domestic market for fuel vehicles has plummeted, creating a significant contrast in demand between domestic and international markets. 5. Analysis of the National Charging Station Market in November 2024 According to data analysis from the China Charging Alliance compiled by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the total number of public charging stations reached 3.46 million in November 2024, with an increase of 69,000 stations compared to the previous month, which was 31% slower than the same period last year; the cumulative increase of public charging stations in 2024 was 734,000, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. Currently, there are 8.89 million private charging stations with a 91% increase of 398,000 stations in November compared to the previous month; the cumulative increase of private charging stations in 2024 was 3.02 million, a 36% increase from the same period last year. The average monthly charging amount per public charging station was 1,503 kWh, which was a good increase from 1,348 kWh in November last year. In recent years, Chinas charging infrastructure has developed rapidly and has built the largest, most widely distributed, and most diverse charging infrastructure system in the world. Currently, based on the calculation of one public charging station being equivalent to three private charging stations, the ratio of charging stations to electric vehicles in the incremental market in China in 2024 has reached a 1:1 level, which is several times higher than that of other countries in the world. However, there are still issues with the current charging infrastructure system, such as inadequate layout, unreasonable structure, outdated technologies of old charging stations, uneven service, and insufficient regulation, all of which need to be improved. The rate of customers regretting their purchase of electric vehicles has increased in some lower-tier regions. As the scale of the industry continues to expand, the adjustment difficulty is small, and there is great potential for electric vehicles to grow. The result of the moderately advanced development of charging stations is underutilization, and the overall operation of charging facilities is inevitably losing money. Currently, the ratio of the incremental volume of pure electric passenger cars to public charging stations is 1.5:1. If one public charging station serves at least three vehicles, the charging system for pure electric passenger cars is basically a 1:1 relationship, which is considered relatively good. In terms of the operation of charging companies, the performance of leading operators is relatively strong. GAC Energy's average monthly charging amount in November reached 7,358 kWh, showing consistently good performance each month. NIO's charging stations achieved a charging amount of around 2,388 kWh. On the other hand, some old charging stations only had an average monthly charging amount of over 100 kWh, while major charging companies had monthly charging amounts in the thousands. The difference in charging amounts varies greatly, ranging from several times to tens of times. Tesla's data has remained stable each month, showing excellent performance. With the rapid growth trend of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles in the future, it is necessary to further construct a high-quality charging infrastructure system, update old and low-power AC charging stations, and increase the upgrade of high-power DC fast chargers to better meet the needs of the people for purchasing and using new energy vehicles, and to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation and the construction of a modern infrastructure system.