Minsheng Securities: The global new energy vehicle market has vast growth potential. It is recommended to pay attention to the midstream bottoming out phase in the next 25 years.

Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that by 2025, it is predicted that global electric vehicle sales will reach 23.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Among them, domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%; European sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%. In the midstream segment, attention should be paid to the bottoming out of the sub-segment, with the price fluctuations of lithium hexafluorophosphate stabilizing, clearly indicating a bottoming out signal, and leading companies' market share continuing to expand; top companies' production capacity expansion stagnating, and the industry's supply release rate significantly slowing down. With cost effectiveness and continuously optimized comprehensive performance accelerating penetration, in the future, iron lithium will move towards high voltage direction for faster iteration; the current supply and demand relationship has improved, and prices are expected to start to recover after reaching the bottom. Minsheng Securities' main points are as follows: Demand: The global battery market has vast potential Global demand for new energy vehicles is growing. Domestically: The effect of the local policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones is gradually showing results, and the continued steady efforts of the scrappage renewal policy are greatly driving the growth of the car market. Europe: The new energy car market in Europe is weak, with sales in the main markets polarized; policy and infrastructure impacts are evident, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to rebound. United States: Consumer structure changes, with young consumers showing higher acceptance of new energy vehicles. Global: The global market for new energy vehicles has broad growth potential, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 28% in 2026. Minsheng Securities predicts that by 2025, global electric vehicle sales will reach 23.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Among them, domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%; European sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%; and American sales will reach 1.8596 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%. It is forecasted that by 2026, global electric vehicle sales will reach 27.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Among them, domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 19.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18%; European sales of new energy vehicles will reach 4.176 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%; and American sales will reach 2.2315 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Midstream: Bottom of the cycle, seizing the bottoming out opportunities Batteries: Chinese companies occupy a dominant position, with market shares in Japan and South Korea declining year-on-year, and Contemporary Amperex Technology's market share further increasing to 36.8%. Lithium hexafluorophosphate: With price fluctuations stabilizing, indicating a clear bottoming out signal, leading companies continue to expand their market share; the expansion of top companies' production capacity has stagnated, and the industry's supply release rate has significantly slowed down. Separators: The decrease in raw material costs and intensified market competition jointly lead to price bottoming out, with short-term pressure on company profits, a significant decline in market share of leading companies; top companies' production delays, overall capacity release rhythm slowing down. Negative electrode: Price trends bottoming out, differentiation of high, medium, and low-end prices; low market concentration, competition among second and third-tier companies; iron lithium positive electrode: Accelerating penetration with cost effectiveness and continuously optimized comprehensive performance, iron lithium will move towards high voltage direction for faster iteration in the future; the current supply and demand relationship has improved, and prices are expected to start to recover after reaching the bottom. Low-altitude economy: Emerging productivity represents, industrialization is on the threshold Policy: Local governments respond intensively to the central government's call. Industry: Strengthening of technology + resource attributes, aircraft whole machine and parts will achieve significant volume increase with the opening of terminal scenarios; the whole machine: configuration matching scene, technology iteration never stops; motor: evolving towards high power density, independent brands moving upwards; batteries: independently controllable globally leading, solid-state batteries may be the ultimate direction; engines: hybrid technology is indispensable, multiple routes coexist. Investment advice: Main chain: battery link, key recommendations Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), Sunwoda Electronic (300207.SZ), Eve Energy Co., Ltd. (300014.SZ); lithium hexafluorophosphate: key recommendation Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709.SZ), and attention recommended Tonze New Energy Technology (002759.SZ); negative electrode: key recommendations Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ), Hunan Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ); lithium iron phosphate: key recommendations Hunan Yuneng New Energy Battery Material (301358.SZ), attention recommended Fulin Precision (300432.SZ), Hubei Wanrun New Energy Technology (688275.SH). Low altitude: recommended attention on Zhejiang Wanfeng Auto Wheel (002085.SZ), China Design Group (603018.SH), Nanjing Les Information Technology (300915.SZ), etc. Risk warning: Demand falls short of expectations, new technology falls short of expectations, and price competition exceeds expectations.