Tianfeng Building Materials Industry's 25-year strategy: Emphasize proactive changes on the supply side and patiently wait for demand to pick up.
24/12/2024
GMT Eight
Tianfeng released a research report stating that the current prosperity of the building materials industry is still on the left side, but with the improvement of front-end data and the continuous promotion of policies such as debt-to-equity swaps and inventory clearance, the bottom signal may gradually be approaching. Consumer building materials: the turning point in sales is imminent, and a new round of growth is expected with the release of existing demand. Cement: The 25-year supply-side reform is expected to accelerate, and profit growth elasticity may be optimal. Fiberglass: The peak period of phased ignition has passed, and demand is expected to increase in the new energy field. Glass: Industry cold repairs are expected to accelerate, and attention is focused on the supply-demand dynamic balance.
Tianfeng's main points are as follows:
The agency believes that the current prosperity of the building materials industry is still on the left side, but with the improvement of front-end data and the continuous promotion of policies such as debt-to-equity swaps and inventory clearance, the bottom signal may gradually be approaching. Cement and fiberglass are expected to start to increase in price in 2024, and the supply side is expected to continue to exert efforts in 2025, supporting the continued recovery of prices. Considering the low base and industry differences, the profit elasticity of cement may be optimal. Consumer building materials have the best long-term growth potential, and after the stabilization of new construction, the driving effect of existing demand on performance is expected to become more prominent. Some C-end companies achieved revenue growth against the trend in 2024, reflecting strong alpha, and continued optimism about the long-term improvement in the profitability and operational quality of high-quality leading companies.
Consumer building materials: The turning point in sales is imminent, and a new round of growth is expected with the release of existing demand
Since the end of September, China's real estate policies have intensified, and the fundamentals of the real estate market have shown marginal improvement. It is expected that in November, the month-on-month sales area may achieve positive growth, and the fundamentals of new construction may gradually stabilize. The sales of second-hand houses have achieved accumulative growt...Infrastructure construction and real estate demand are lower than expected, raw material and coal prices have increased beyond expectations, production capacity has been put into operation beyond expectations, and the calculations in the article have a certain subjectivity."Por favor, dime la verdad."
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