Crossing 2025, Can The Year‑End Rally Extend To The Close? Review Of This Week’s Ten Brokerage Strategies

December 28 — With only three trading days remaining, 2025 is approaching its conclusion. This week saw the Shanghai Composite extend its streak to eight consecutive gains, China’s ETF assets surpass RMB 6 trillion to set a new record, and the offshore renminbi briefly trade beyond the 7.0 threshold. Against this stream of positive developments, major brokerages offered varied perspectives on how the market may finish the year and which sectors could lead in 2026. Below are the distilled views from ten leading brokerages.

CITIC Securities highlights that among 360 industry and thematic ETFs, 39 reached new highs in December. Established themes such as telecommunications and non‑ferrous metals reflect the logic of North American AI infrastructure and resource demand, while newer themes like commercial aerospace — including defense‑related exposure — have attracted active capital during market turbulence. Other quietly advancing sectors, including chemicals and engineering machinery, point to China’s manufacturing shifting from cost advantage toward pricing power. From a portfolio standpoint, CITIC recommends a structural approach for the cross‑year period: prioritize sectors with improving long‑term returns on equity and rising investor attention, such as chemicals, engineering machinery and new energy, while monitoring renminbi appreciation and related opportunities; brokerages and insurers are cited as balanced allocations under this framework.

Guotai Haitong frames the market’s progress as a broader restoration of social confidence and capital mobilization. The macro policy pivot in September 2024 eased domestic concerns, and since April 2025 China has navigated trade frictions with greater confidence, reflecting stronger governance capacity. Unlike the contractionary phase from 2019 to 2024, the current cycle features greater external confidence, internal stability and an end to asset contraction. With long‑term rates having fallen and fixed‑income yields compressing, the withdrawal of high‑yield, low‑risk non‑standard assets is driving a structural reallocation toward equities. Policy and institutional reforms — from delisting and anti‑fraud measures to incentives for dividends and M&A — have improved investability and reduced volatility, encouraging long‑term capital to increase equity exposure. Guotai Haitong sees industrial restructuring and capital‑market reform as mutually reinforcing forces that could sustain a transformation‑led bull market, while noting risks from an overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainty.

Industrial Securities interprets the renminbi’s recent strength as a combination of dollar weakness and year‑end settlement flows, with passive and expectation‑driven appreciation both at play. In the near term, settlement demand may continue to support the currency and help synchronize a spring market uptick. Over the medium term, the reversal of domestic deflationary pressures and improving returns on Chinese assets could underpin a more sustained renminbi appreciation, which in turn would attract capital back into China. Industrial outlines four channels through which currency appreciation affects sector allocation: lower import costs benefiting upstream resource‑intensive industries; reduced foreign‑currency debt servicing costs aiding sectors with significant dollar liabilities; stronger domestic purchasing power supporting consumption and cross‑border spending; and foreign capital inflows reinforcing growth‑oriented sectors. The brokerage highlights AI hardware, advanced manufacturing, non‑ferrous metals, and consumption areas such as duty‑free and hospitality as potential beneficiaries.

Dongwu Securities offers ten thematic forecasts for A‑shares in 2026, projecting continued upward pressure on broad indices with higher volatility, cyclical style rotation between growth and value, and a first‑half leadership by technology growth. The firm anticipates dividend‑oriented styles to regain prominence in the second half, expects AI‑related end‑user devices to replicate prior hardware rallies, and identifies strategic technology areas under the 15th Five‑Year Plan — including embodied intelligence, fusion, quantum, 6G and hydrogen — as primary industrial themes. Dongwu also flags a likely mid‑year commodity peak and potential volatility for small‑cap styles, while forecasting limited Fed easing in the first half and a narrowing negative PPI range.

Zhongtai Securities characterizes the week’s advance as a high‑level structural rebalancing: indices reached new highs while individual stock performance diverged. Market breadth remained moderate, and turnover expanded as cyclical sectors, led by non‑ferrous metals, drove gains. Zhongtai attributes the rally to a phase‑specific repair in risk appetite supported by RMB strength and improved external liquidity expectations. The firm expects the pre‑Spring Festival window to offer further upside and recommends selective buy‑on‑dip opportunities, with emphasis on technology themes such as robotics, commercial aerospace and nuclear power, overseas compute and semiconductor supply chains, non‑bank financials and targeted consumption segments.

Guojin Securities observes that the market’s recent advance is broadening beyond a single AI narrative into a rotation that includes domestic demand, price‑pass‑through chains and emerging industrial themes like commercial aerospace. Guojin notes that price increases across supply chains reflect raw‑material cost pressures and the early effects of anti‑involution policies, with some firms choosing production discipline and coordinated price adjustments to restore industry margins. The brokerage identifies industrial resources and equipment exports, domestic manufacturing recovery plays, consumption recovery channels and non‑bank financials as the principal investment lines for 2026, while cautioning on downside scenarios if domestic recovery disappoints.

Huaxi Securities emphasizes that multiple pools of capital are positioning early for a potential “spring frenzy,” driven by easing overseas policy uncertainty and the proximity of domestic policy events such as the Spring Festival and Two Sessions. Institutional flows, including insurance and pension allocations, have shown signs of front‑running, and ETF net subscriptions have accelerated. Huaxi highlights the role of A500 ETFs as a key source of incremental year‑end funds and points to record margin balances as evidence of revived risk appetite. The firm recommends focusing on policy‑backed growth themes, price‑recovery beneficiaries and consumption catalysts, while noting macro and geopolitical risks.

China Galaxy describes the current market phase as a nascent cross‑year “mini frenzy,” with the Shanghai Composite recording eight consecutive gains and turnover exceeding RMB 2 trillion. The brokerage sees continued structural opportunities in non‑ferrous metals, lithium, free‑trade zone plays and aerospace, and regards RMB strength as enhancing the appeal of domestic assets. China Galaxy advises a balanced approach that retains defensive allocations while selectively participating in long‑term themes such as AI, new energy, fusion and advanced manufacturing.

Kaiyuan Securities frames the recent eight‑day advance as part of a broader environment where PPI recovery, anti‑involution measures, dollar weakness and rising AI hardware demand create favorable conditions for chemicals, new‑energy materials, electronics and non‑ferrous metals. The firm recommends maintaining a technology‑plus‑PPI orientation while monitoring consumption pockets and cross‑year thematic opportunities such as commercial aerospace and satellite supply chains. Key risks include abrupt policy shifts, liquidity stress and geopolitical developments.

Zheshang Securities concludes that the market’s stepwise ascent reflects a medium‑term “slow bull” trajectory, though short‑term drivers require validation. The firm advises investors to preserve positions, avoid chasing recent leaders, and add selectively on weakness. Zheshang favors lagging sectors with room for catch‑up, such as brokerages, and recommends a bias toward stock selection over index exposure, focusing on undervalued names that have formed technical bottom signals.

Across these brokerages, common threads emerge: the market’s year‑end strength is underpinned by improving liquidity, policy support and renewed capital flows, while sector leadership is likely to rotate between technology, industrial resources and consumption as macro and currency dynamics evolve. The consensus view favors selective, structurally oriented positioning into 2026, with attention to policy execution, external liquidity and geopolitical risks as the primary downside considerations.