CRIC Real Estate Research: After the new policies, the average turnover rate of the top 20 cities "rose first and then fell", with just-needed projects accounting for nearly 60% of the hot-selling projects.

Ke Rui Real Estate Research released a report stating that after the implementation of the policy on September 30th, the new housing market continued to heat up, with a month-on-month increase of 46% in October in the top 100 cities, a slight year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching a new high for the year in absolute terms. Focusing on the micro-project level, the inventory turnover rates of projects in 20 cities are still above 30%, better than the weekly average in September. Looking at the changes in the average inventory turnover rates of 20 typical cities after the new policy on a weekly basis, it basically shows a trend of "high first, then low": according to CRIC monitoring data, after the implementation of the new policy, the average inventory turnover rate of 20 typical cities rose to a high point of 68% in the 43rd week (October 21st to October 27th), and then steadily declined. In the most recent week, the 46th week (November 11th to November 17th), it was only 32%, still higher than the weekly average level before the new policy in September. Focusing on the product grades of 69 hot-selling projects since October after the new policy, Ke Rui Real Estate Research found that the number of demand-oriented projects priced at 0.8-1.2 times the average price of the city reached 39, accounting for as high as 57%, with middle-end, high-end, and luxury projects each accounting for around 10%. The activity of the demand-oriented customer group is high, and the inventory turnover rate of demand-oriented projects in the near and far suburbs of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing has significantly increased. Looking at the micro-project level, hot-selling demand-oriented projects are mainly concentrated in the core city's near and far suburbs. The following table lists the inventory turnover rates of some demand-oriented projects before and after the new policy. It can be seen that, thanks to the stimulus of the new policy, the demand for demand-oriented projects in the near and far suburbs of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Chongqing has steadily increased. In Shanghai, for example, after the new policy, the first-time and first-improvement visits and subscriptions with unit prices of 40,000-70,000 RMB per square meter have been increasing. Projects such as Poly Xishao in Songjiang Dongjing, Dahua Park Bai Cui in Baoshan Gongfu, and Longhu Fengxian in Fengxian Nanqiao have all seen inventory turnover rates of over 70% in October and November, an increase of 10-30 percentage points from before the new policy. Product innovation (fourth-generation housing) + stimulus of pre-sale homes attracts middle-end and high-end customer groups back to the new housing market Middle-end, high-end, and luxury projects are attracting customers back through product innovation, especially the recent popularity of "fourth-generation housing" projects in Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, and other places. These projects have gradually entered the market, improving the actual occupancy rate while providing residents with a harmonious, healthy, and comfortable living environment, which cannot be compared to second-hand homes. In Nanjing, for example, the Jiangyun Yuyue project is located in the oversupplied Jiangbei area. It started reservations during the National Day holiday month, offering the final selling price as the actual transaction price to attract customers to make reservations. The first launch was a priority sale of a foreign-style house. It sold out within half an hour with a reservation rate of four times, followed by the successive launch of high-rise and low-rise products. The heat continued into November, with over 100 units sold. The project's sales success can be largely attributed to product iteration. The project was the first fourth-generation residential product in Jiangbei, with a high actual occupancy rate and terrace giveaways far exceeding competing products in the same area. The initial launch of a 143-square-meter ocean-view apartment with a lofted living room design and an outdoor terrace added space, creating a completely new living experience for customers. In Wuhan, the sales speed of fourth-generation housing projects in the same area is significantly higher than non-fourth-generation housing projects. The projects listed below, such as City Investment Jinsha Mansion, the Shahu Tianjing project, and the Zhongjian Yipin Hanyun Mansion, are all fourth-generation housing projects. The City Investment Jinsha Mansion is the first quasi-fourth-generation housing project within the second ring road of Wuchang. With an occupancy rate of about 90%, unit sizes ranging from 103-142 square meters, and reasonable prices, the main price range is 2.15-3.2 million RMB. The inventory turnover rate in November reached as high as 47%, significantly higher than in September. In the Shahu area, the Shahu Tianjing project not only offers advantages in product with a high actual occupancy rate of 98-105%, but also is situated along the lakefront, with mature supporting facilities. By introducing quality educational resources, the project was able to sell out all 212 units opened for sale by the end of October. Some projects attract corresponding customer groups within the area through differentiated product strategies to achieve high sales. Taking the project in Guanyinqiao, Chongqing as an example, the project mainly offers units ranging from 92-123 square meters in size, with a total price range of 2.1-2.9 million RMB per unit, accurately targeting the improvement customers within the area, achieving a high inventory turnover rate of 90%. In addition to the above-mentioned product innovation and differentiated product strategies, some projects in weak second and third-tier cities such as Qingdao, Chongqing, and Changzhou rely on rapid construction progress to sell as pre-sale homes or quasi-pre-sale homes, enhancing customer confidence in the product. In Changzhou, for example, since October 2024, of the top 10 projects by number of units sold, there were 6 pre-sale homes/quasi-pre-sale homes projects, while some projects further increased sales by offering home furnishings and parking spaces as gifts. In summary, thanks to the stimulus of the new policy, the inventory turnover rates of projects in various cities have stabilized and increased, with a trend of "high first, then low" significantly better than the average in September before the new policy. Looking at hot-selling projects, the revitalization effect of demand-oriented projects in the near and far suburbs priced at 0.8-1.2 times the city average price is particularly significant, accounting for nearly 60% of 69 hot-selling projects. Among these hot-selling projects, the demand-oriented, middle-end, and high-end projects mainly rely on product innovation - such as the creation of fourth-generation housing - to gradually enhance residential comfort and create competitive advantages through differentiated product strategies. Accelerating construction progress for pre-sale and quasi-pre-sale delivery also helps to reduce customer concerns about purchasing, bridging the gap between new and second-hand homes. Looking ahead, Ke Rui Real Estate Research believes that after the new policy on September 30th, the relaxation of policies in various regions has not decreased but increased, to a certain extent, which will continue to consolidate the hard-won recovery results. As the year-end approaches, if developers can actively rescue themselves and increase marketing efforts on the basis of policy benefits, the proportion of new housing transactions will continue to expand.