Sub-association: New energy vehicle market retail sales reached 581,000 units in the first two weeks of November, a year-on-year increase of 66%.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from November 1st to 17th, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 581,000, a 66% increase compared to the same period last November, and a 7% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 8.909 million, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year. From November 1st to 17th, domestic passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 654,000 new energy vehicles, a 71% increase compared to the same period last November, and a 20% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume for the year reached 9.933 million, a 38% increase compared to the same period last year. From November 1st to 17th, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.106 million, a 30% increase compared to the same period last November, and a 3% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 18.942 million, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. From November 1st to 17th, domestic passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 1.271 million vehicles, a 37% increase compared to the same period last November, and a 22% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume for the year reached 22.447 million, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. In November 2024, the national passenger car market showed strong growth in retail sales. In the first week of November, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars was 57,000, a 29% increase compared to the same period last November but a 3% decrease compared to the previous month. In the second week of November, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars was 77,000, a 31% increase compared to the same period last November and a 10% increase compared to the previous month. From November 1st to 17th, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.106 million, a 30% increase compared to the same period last November and a 3% increase compared to the previous month; The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 18.942 million, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year. At the end of November, the market remained strong, with strong policy support. Rumors of subsidies reaching their limits in some areas accelerated consumer transactions, and actual local subsidies, which are funded by special national bonds, are expected to continue until the end of the year. Therefore, the retail performance in November was very good. Under the encouragement of the national scrappage and replacement policies in various regions, recent car purchases have seen strong growth. In particular, the subsidies for electric vehicles under the replacement policy are 1000-5000 yuan higher than those for gasoline vehicles in many areas, and the subsidy gap between the two types of vehicles is small, reflecting a trend towards fair competition between gasoline and electric vehicles. This is a significant highlight of local policies. The national scrappage policy provides strong support for new energy vehicles, and after the subsidies for gasoline and electric vehicles in local policies become more balanced, the pressure on dealers' survival is alleviated. In November 2024, the sales of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers gradually strengthened. In the first week of November, the daily average wholesale volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 67,000, a 41% increase compared to the same period last November and a 45% increase compared to the previous month. In the second week of November, the daily average wholesale volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 86,000, a 34% increase compared to the same period last November and a 4% increase compared to the previous month. From November 1st to 17th, domestic passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 1.271 million vehicles, a 37% increase compared to the same period last November and a 22% increase compared to the previous month; The cumulative wholesale volume for the year reached 22.447 million, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. The trend in manufacturer sales in November continued to be strong. The replacement policy began to take over from the scrappage subsidy policy, igniting the market; the scrappage policy favors new energy vehicles, although its impact is limited. The stimulating effect of the replacement policy for passenger cars in various regions is expected to be greater than that of scrappage, and the stimulating effect on gasoline vehicles is significant. Expect powerful continuation policies for scrappage and replacement in 2025, with exemptions for individual income tax for car buyers, promotion of new energy vehicles to rural areas, tax exemptions for compliant pure electric vehicles with a range of less than 200 kilometers, encouragement for marriage car purchases, etc. In October 2024, automobile production increased by 5%, with 1.43 million new energy vehicles and a penetration rate of 48%, and automobile consumption increased by 4%. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.5396 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the consumption of automobiles reached 445.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 4.0944 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39.896 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Among them, the consumption of automobiles reached 3.9921 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 35.9039 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. In 2024, automobile production demand will continue to grow steadily, consumer expectations will improve, high-quality development will be solidly promoted, and the automobile industry will continue to rebound. Currently, the price of commercial housing in 2024 is 9,862 yuan per square meter, which is very close to the peak of 10,437 yuan per square meter, much higher than the 6,323 yuan per square meter in 2014, and much higher than the peak sales price of cars in 2017 of 7,892 yuan. The real estate loans have been significantly reduced, and real estate investment is mainly supported by residents' down payments and prepayments, which have a certain impact on the funds for car purchases. The relationship between car sales and real estate sales in 2023 was 37 square meters of housing to 1 car, which continued to decrease to 32 square meters of housing to 1 car in 2024, showing a slight improvement in the relationship between housing and car sales compared to the peak of 70 square meters to 1 car in 2020, which is more reasonable. Due to debt pressure, the demand for cars is relatively low, and as the only consumer product that has not been universally adopted by Chinese urban and rural households, the overall trend in the national passenger car market has been warming up in recent years, with consumer car purchases gradually improving. With the passenger car replacement policy starting to take over from the scrappage subsidy policy, the car market in October was ignited; the scrappage policy favors new energy vehicles but has limited scale. Recently, the stimulating effect of passenger car replacement policies in various regions is expected to be greater than that of scrappage, and the stimulating effect on gasoline vehicles is significant. Looking forward to powerful continuation policies for scrappage renewal and replacement renewal in 2025, exemptions for personal income tax for car buyers, promotion of new energy vehicles to rural areas, exemption of vehicle purchase tax for compliant pure electric vehicles with a range of less than 200 kilometers, encouragement of car purchases for marriage, etc.Encouraging childbirth, purchasing cars, and implementing more improvement measures can stimulate car consumption and promote economic growth.The trend of domestic insurance for commercial vehicles in the country is good, with obvious destocking. According to the data from the National Financial Bureau on compulsory insurance, the data for domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance has experienced strong growth before 2021, but recently entered a phase of slow growth. Due to the complex interference of the Spring Festival factors, the domestic compulsory insurance for commercial vehicles in January and February of this year performed relatively poorly, but in March, it rebounded significantly after the holiday, with the data for compulsory insurance from April to October continuing to decline. From January to October of this year, the domestic insurance for commercial vehicles achieved 2.32 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease; sales of commercial vehicles achieved 225,000 units in October, a 5% year-on-year decrease and a 1% decrease month-on-month. In recent years, the export market for fuel commercial vehicles has surged, while the domestic market for fuel commercial vehicles has plummeted, resulting in a significant disparity in demand between domestic and foreign markets. In October 2024, sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 435,000 units from January to October, an 87% year-on-year increase; in October 2024 alone, it reached 55,000 units, a 64% year-on-year increase. From January to October 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in the overall commercial vehicle market reached 19%, with a penetration rate of 25% in October, an increase of 11 percentage points compared to October of the previous year, reflecting a relatively strong performance in markets such as new energy light commercial vehicles under policy promotion. Analysis of the lithium battery market for new energy vehicles in October 2024 In October 2024, the installation of lithium batteries reached 59.2Wh, a 51% year-on-year increase. The installation of ternary batteries was 12.2GWh, a 1% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 21%, lower than the same period; while the installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 47GWh, a 75% year-on-year increase, accounting for 79%, with a slower growth in ternary batteries. From January to October, the installation of lithium batteries reached 406GWh, a 38% year-on-year increase. According to the calculation of qualified certificate battery volume, the production volume of qualified certificate products for new energy vehicles in October 2024 was 1.28 million units, a 51% year-on-year increase. From January to October, it reached 8.69 million units, a strong 39% year-on-year increase, including 4.71 million units of pure electric passenger vehicles, an 18% year-on-year increase; 3.53 million units of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles, an 81% year-on-year increase; and 410,000 units of pure electric special vehicles, a 46% year-on-year increase, indicating favorable production data. The competition landscape of battery companies is characterized by the relatively strong features of Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited. Currently, the gap between BYD Company Limited and Contemporary Amperex Technology remains large, with BYD Company Limited's market share increasing from 15% in 2020 to 25% in 2024, and reaching 26.9% in October; while Contemporary Amperex Technology's market share in October decreased to 43%, and the market share of other battery companies also showed a significant differentiation trend. The battery companies have shown signs of a slowdown in the concentration effect of leading companies, with the proportion of the top two companies remaining at 70% this year, down slightly from 72% in 2022, leaving around 30% of the market share for other companies. In the past two years, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries have been highly prosperous, leading to a rapid growth in battery demand, while the proportion of batteries used in new energy vehicles has decreased. Due to the slowdown in the growth of the export market for electric cars, the demand for battery installations in electric cars has continued to grow slower than the total growth in domestic vehicle production. Due to the high prices of nickel and cobalt, differentiation in growth between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has emerged. With the growth of longer-lasting products, ternary batteries still have a market, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has continued to rise due to price reductions. The adjustment of policies to increase the range of electric vehicles in the first half of this year has affected the market, leading to a shrinkage in low-end small electric cars, a soft trend in pure electric vehicles, and a continued strength in extended-range and plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, the policy of scrapping and replacing old passenger cars in July and the implementation of trade-in policies in September have been particularly favorable for micro electric cars, leading to a strong growth in pure electric vehicles in September and October, with a significant increase in the proportion of batteries per kilogram to 125-140 watt-hours.