Bitcoin's "milestone moment": ETF options debut, poised to shake off the "high volatility" label.
20/11/2024
GMT Eight
Alex Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency financial services firm, stated that with the options related to BlackRock, Inc.'s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US), which has an asset size of up to $43 billion, officially entering the U.S. stock market, it may significantly reduce the volatility of Bitcoin and expand the investor base for the original Bitcoin entity. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have long been associated with the label of "high volatility," which is why Wall Street investment firms are reluctant to directly hold entities like Bitcoin and instead choose to allocate to ETF assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum with relatively lower volatility to cover the importance of cryptocurrencies.
However, with the options surrounding the world's largest asset size Bitcoin ETF - BlackRock, Inc.'s iShares Bitcoin ETF - officially launching, Bitcoin is expected to shake off the long-standing high risk label of "high volatility" and gradually move closer to the "low volatility" trading attributes of traditional asset classes (such as gold, U.S. bonds, and commodities), thus attracting more investors to invest in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
It is understood that Nasdaq Stock Exchange began trading options for the iShares Bitcoin ETF on Tuesday. Since 2024, the value of the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has doubled, currently hovering above $90,000, near its all-time high. On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin surged following the launch of ETF options, breaking through $94,000 to set a new all-time high, surpassing the previous high set on November 13th.
"As time goes on, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to be more widely held, and volatility will also be significantly reduced, with options helping to suppress volatility. As the downward trend in volatility takes shape, people will be able to take larger positions in their allocations," Thorn, research director at Galaxy Digital, said in an interview with the media on Tuesday.
Nasdaq (Nasdaq Inc.) began offering options for the iShares Bitcoin ETF for the first time on Tuesday. Thorn stated that if volatility decreases, more investors will view Bitcoin as a major asset with fundamental utility value, rather than just a high-risk bet. He said that option strategies will enable hedge funds and other financial institutions to better hedge the high volatility risk of Bitcoin, increase liquidity in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs, and also impact retail trading patterns in a bull market. He added that as Bitcoin gradually converges with traditional financial assets, the cryptocurrency industry must also consider how to maintain controlled development.
While Thorn predicts that options will help reduce Bitcoin volatility in the long run, volatility is still attracting some speculators to gamble on Bitcoin.
In January of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the trading of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (i.e. Bitcoin ETFs) on the U.S. stock market, which was the initial catalyst for the sharp rise in cryptocurrency prices this year. Following successful cooperation between BlackRock, Inc., the world's largest asset management firm, and the Nasdaq Stock Exchange for ten months to fully launch the Bitcoin ETF into the market, and with obstacles cleared by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), options trading around the BlackRock, Inc. iShares Bitcoin ETF was eventually launched.
Can the "Wild Bitcoin" continue to "soar"?
In 2022, Bitcoin and other digital assets suffered a disaster that exposed some sharp practices and fraudulent behavior, leading to a series of major negative events, such as the collapse of the FTX exchange empire owned by Sam Bankman Fried. But as of now, market participants' fervor for Trump's support of cryptocurrencies has overshadowed their memory of these risks.
Statistics show that the total market value of global cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, has surpassed $3.2 trillion, with Trump's election as U.S. president and his imminent return to the White House after a four-year break prompting cryptocurrency enthusiasts to collectively bet on a more friendly and relaxed regulatory outlook revealed by the new U.S. government led by Trump, which could bring new prosperity to various sectors of this risky asset class. Trump embraced digital assets comprehensively during his campaign and expressed his desire to make the U.S. the "cryptocurrency capital" and "Bitcoin superpower."
Compared to the already reached total market value of $3.2 trillion, the market value of cryptocurrencies surpassed that of one of the seven major tech giants in the U.S., Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), last week. Globally, in the stock market rankings, it ranks only behind NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), meaning that if the cryptocurrency market were considered a stock, its market value would only be second to NVIDIA Corporation and Apple Inc., far ahead of Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C, Meta, Tesla, Inc., and Saudi Aramco, among other top global public companies.
The market value of Bitcoin is currently hovering around $1.8 trillion, by far the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Ned Davis Research, a Wall Street investment firm, recently upgraded Bitcoin to a "long-only trade" and believes that Bitcoin is expected to soar to over $120,000 in the spring of next year. The strategy team at Ned Davis Research stated, "Due to the optimistic sentiment regarding Trump's victory, cryptocurrencies are booming, and we believe that at least before Trump takes office, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise.""There is almost no resistance on the path of increase."Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that after Trump wins the US presidential election, the price of Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Jan Van Eck, CEO of leading asset management company VanEck, also predicts that the price of Bitcoin could eventually reach $300,000.
Market participants say that cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (such as Bitcoin ETFs in the US stock market) are also being heavily purchased by investors, which may indicate that Wall Street Financial Institutions, Inc. are buying in bulk, as Financial Institutions, Inc. typically prefer to avoid holding volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Asia benefits from the $800 billion rebound ignited by the US "crypto hot spot.
A record-breaking cryptocurrency rebound wave originated in the United States is leaving a deep mark on the cryptocurrency markets in Asia, with the value of Bitcoin holdings in places like Bhutan soaring to over $1 billion, and the scale of digital asset trading in Korea increasing significantly.
Statistical data shows that since Trump's victory in the US election on November 5th, the overall market value of cryptocurrencies has surged by over $800 billion, as he aims to transform the US into the global center of the industry, stimulating a flourishing global digital asset trading environment.
Multiple "crypto hot spots" in Asia are being permeated by optimism as some jurisdictions in the region are at the forefront of cryptocurrency adoption, whether it be for investments, hedging against weakening local currencies, or cheaper and faster remittances.
In Bhutan, the state-owned investment firm Druk Holding & Investments has accumulated a significant amount of Bitcoin as rewards for running a computer network supporting digital currency ledgers. These so-called "Bhutanese Bitcoin mining operations" are powered by the kingdom's abundant hydroelectric power from the Himalayan mountains.
Research firm Arkham Intelligence's data shows that since the US election, the value of Bhutan's Bitcoin reserves has grown by over $200 million, reaching $1.1 billion, which is equivalent to about 36% of the country's GDP. Ujjwal Deep Dahal, CEO of Druk Holding & Investments, said that the value of these cryptocurrency assets in Bhutan cannot be confirmed as they are crucial for "core internal asset management and diversification strategies." Druk Holding & Investments began large-scale Bitcoin mining in 2019.
In Korea, speculators tend to accept smaller, riskier tokens rather than just the market leader Bitcoin. According to CCData, the country's largest dedicated exchange, Upbit, saw its share in global cryptocurrency transactions jump by a full two percentage points from November 5th to November 10th, reaching 4.3%. This indicates that Trump's push for a cryptocurrency rebound has attracted more Koreans into the cryptocurrency trading market.
Other ripples of the super-rebound led by the US cryptocurrency market leader include Cronos doubling in price after the election, Cronos being the utility token of Crypto.com based in Singapore, one of the largest digital asset exchanges. In Japan, Metaplanet's stock price rose by about 60% this month, as the market is optimistic about its strategy of accumulating Bitcoin through debt and equity financing. Last week, the Tokyo-based Monex Group officially announced that its cryptocurrency exchange operator, Coincheck Group, plans to merge with a long-pending special purpose acquisition company and eventually go public in the US in December.