Wanlian Securities: The large consumer public funds' heavy positions continue to decline in 24Q3, with an increase in the allocation of household appliances.
19/11/2024
GMT Eight
Wanlian Securitiesreleased a research report stating that the heavy position ratio of the 24Q3 consumer sector continues to decline, currently at a historical low. Among the different sub-sectors, except for home appliances which increased their allocation, the rest of the consumer sub-sectors decreased their allocation. Food and beverage, home appliances, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery are at an overweight level. Consumer consumption is still in a weak recovery state, but recent government policies are favorable for repairing household assets and easing debt pressures, thereby enhancing consumer ability and benefiting the consumer industry.
The heavy position ratio in the consumer sector has declined, with the overweight ratio showing a slight recovery. In 24Q3, the heavy position ratio of the consumer sector slightly decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 8.15%, still at a historical low. The proportion of heavy position market value in the consumer sector has increased, with a ratio of 20.03% (an increase of 0.25 percentage points), and the overweight ratio has risen to 7.17% (an increase of 0.98 percentage points).
By industry: Apart from an increase in the heavy position ratio of home appliances, the rest of the consumer sub-sectors decreased in allocation. Food and beverage, home appliances, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery are at an overweight level. The heavy position ratio in home appliances has slightly increased, while the heavy position ratios in other industries have decreased. In 24Q3, the overweight ratios for home appliances and food and beverage were relatively +0.39 points and +0.20 points, respectively; the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continued to decrease in overweight ratio by 0.32 points but remained at an overweight level; the overweight ratio for light manufacturing increased by 0.93 points; while textile and apparel, retail, social services, and beauty and health care sectors saw a decreased overweight ratio, staying at a low allocation level.
For individual stocks: Among the top 20 stock holdings in the market, the consumer sector occupies 5 positions. The heavy position ratio of the consumer sector in the top 10 stocks has mostly to do with food and beverage. In 24Q3, among the top 20 stock holdings in the market, the consumer sector occupied 5 positions, with food and beverage in 4 positions and home appliances in 1 position.
The top 10 stocks with the greatest increase in heavy positions in the consumer sector include 5 food and beverage stocks (Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor, Anjoy Foods Group, Anhui Yingjia Distillery), 3 home appliance stocks (Midea Group Co., Ltd, Gree Electric Appliances, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls), 1 agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stock (China Hainan Rubber Industry Group), and 1 social services stock (Centre Testing International Group); while the top 10 stocks with the greatest decrease in heavy positions include 4 food and beverage stocks (Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Anhui Gujing Distillery, Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock), 3 home appliance stocks (HAIER SMARTHOME, Beijing Roborock Technology, Hisense Visual Technology), and 3 agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stocks (Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, Guangdong Haid Group).
Key areas of focus:
Food and beverage: Food and beverage, as essential consumer items, are resilient and have stable performance. With the recovery of consumer demand and investors' confidence, the food and beverage sector is expected to see a valuation recovery. It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the high-end, mid-high-end, white spirits, beer, dairy products, seasonings, and snack sectors.
Social services: Benefiting from policies supporting expanded service consumption and the recovery of leisure travel scenes, it is suggested to focus on leading companies in the catering, tourism, scenic spots, and hotel sectors.
Beauty and health care: With the promotion of Double Eleven sales and consumption stimulus policies, the consumption data of the beauty industry has shown impressive growth recently. It is recommended to focus on leading domestic cosmetics companies with strong research and development, product quality, and marketing capabilities.
Risk factors: Risks include policies not meeting expectations, consumer recovery falling short of expectations, and macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations.