Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Stops 6 consecutive declines! International gold prices surge by 1.6%, may rise to record levels next year (with concept stocks)

On November 18th, after experiencing 6 consecutive declines, the international gold price once again rose. As of the time of writing today, the London gold is now reported at $2612.23 per ounce, up 1.6%. It is worth noting that this year, the international gold price has continued to rise and has continuously set new historical highs, with the London gold accumulating a rise of over 30% from January to October. However, since November, the international gold price has been continuously declining, with the largest drop approaching 10% from the peak. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs Group stated that due to purchases by major central banks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to rise to record levels next year. According to Wind analysis, the strong performance of the gold price this year is mainly influenced by factors such as the global interest rate reduction cycle, geopolitical risks, and large-scale purchases of gold by central banks. Since November, there has been a rapid decline in the gold price, first due to major political events in the United States. Previously, due to the uncertainty of political events, market risk aversion sentiment had been on the rise, with gold benefiting from its safe-haven properties attracting a large number of investors and getting a strong boost. After the events unfolded, the safe-haven appeal of gold significantly weakened, and the stock market, bitcoin, and other markets were boosted, further leading investors to sell gold. Since the major political events in the US, cryptocurrencies have surged as expectations that the new US governments policies will boost digital assets. The total assets of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF surpassed $40 billion for the first time last week. This surge coincided with a significant outflow of funds from the world's largest physical gold-backed ETF - SPDR Gold Shares. In addition, the continued "hawkish" signals released by the Federal Reserve have also had a negative impact on the gold price. Although recent US economic data has been mixed, overall it has been positive, with the market generally believing that the US economy is likely to achieve a soft landing. Furthermore, recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Chair Powell have led the market to speculate that the Fed is not willing to continue cutting interest rates significantly. Looking ahead at the gold price, Goldman Sachs Group stated that due to purchases by major central banks and interest rate cuts in the United States, the price of gold is expected to rise to record levels next year. Goldman Sachs has listed gold as one of the first choice commodities for trading in 2025, and indicated that the price of gold may continue to rise during Donald Trump's presidency. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, stated in a report, "Buy gold." The analysts reiterated that the price of gold will reach $3000 per ounce by December 2025. They stated that the structural driving factors behind this prediction include an increase in demand from central banks, and as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, funds flowing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will cyclically boost the price. Goldman Sachs analysts also mentioned that an escalation in trade tensions could revitalize speculative positions in gold. In addition, growing concerns about the sustainability of the US fiscal situation could also boost the gold price. They pointed out that major central banks - especially those holding significant reserves of US Treasury bonds - may choose to purchase more gold. Guotai Junan believes that in the medium to long term, with Trump returning to office, inflation and credit factors will be key factors supporting the continued strong performance of gold. First, as a hedge against inflation, theoretically, the re-inflation expectations caused by "Trump 2.0" will form a long-term bullish trend for gold. Secondly, from a fiscal credit perspective, gold is more resistant to national credit risks than the US dollar. The expectations of tax cuts and a widening fiscal deficit under "Trump 2.0" may increase the credit risk of US bonds to a certain extent. Continuous fiscal expansion and rising deficits may dilute the credit of the US dollar. Based on the above reasons, Guotai Junan believes that the macroeconomic factors of "Trump 2.0" will not diminish the bullish factors of the gold price in the medium to long term, and that gold has a certain value for long-term allocation. Related stocks: Zijin Mining Group (02899): In the first three quarters of 2024, Zijin Mining Group achieved operating income of RMB 230.396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%; net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 24.357 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.68%. The company stated that the significant increase in performance was mainly due to the steady improvement in the company's production and operation management capabilities, increased production of main ore products, and effective cost control; at the same time, the company's ability to judge the metal market has further improved, fully benefiting from the rising metal prices. Shandong Gold Mining (01787): Morgan Stanley's report stated that against the backdrop of rising gold prices, Shandong Gold Mining continues to enjoy a strong profit trend, with production growth coming from further resumption of operations at the Linglong mine and the expected start-up of the Ghanaian Kaitino (Cardinal) project in the last quarter; thirdly, it comes from the contribution brought by the subsidiary Yintai Gold (Shanjin International Gold) with a 28.89% stake (formerly known as 000975.SZ). LAOPU GOLD (06181): In the first half of 2024, LAOPU GOLD saw revenue and net profit growth rates of as high as 148% and 199% respectively, amidst high gold prices and a downturn in the gold jewelry industry since Q2. The company's growth performance has been particularly impressive. With strong product strength, the company's brand successfully broke through on social content platforms such as Xiaohongshu, and consumer numbers rapidly increased.