Yuanta Securities: Still cautious on the outlook for Hong Kong stocks next year, expecting the Hang Seng Index to reach a preliminary target of 21,500-22,000 points.

Yuexie Securities (01428) is collaborating with the Hong Kong Polytechnic University to conduct a "Hong Kong stock market sentiment survey," in-depth research on investors' views and trends on the future market. Zhi Yaohui, Director of Research at Yuecai Securities, believes that although the Hang Seng Index is expected to break the "four-year decline" (the Hang Seng Index recorded annual declines from 2020 to 2023), the market outlook for 2025 is not clear. Especially after Trump's re-election as President of the United States, there is a high level of uncertainty in the future global political and economic situation. The view on Hong Kong stocks for next year remains cautious, with the initial target for the Hang Seng Index next year being 21,500-22,000 points. Zhi Yaohui said that if there is a breakthrough in Sino-US relations and there is a glimmer of hope in the mainland economy, especially in the property market, in the most optimistic scenario, the Hang Seng Index may challenge 25,000 points. In addition, he is optimistic about new energy, energy storage, cloud computing/services, and mainland telecommunications stocks, while he continues to be optimistic about the development of the AI industry chain in the US. Associate Professor Zhao Jing of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University announced the results of the Hong Kong stock market sentiment survey. Regarding the overall performance of investors' securities investment returns from 2024 to the present, 68% of investors believe that the performance is average, with an average profit margin of less than 10%. As for investors' expectations of the average volatility of the Hang Seng Index, the majority (43%) believe it is between 18,000-20,999 points, followed by 15,000-17,999 points, accounting for 24%; investors still have the most confidence in technology stocks (60.7%), followed by mainland banking stocks (25.6%), while real estate is the least favored sector by investors (47.1%); investors believe that the most influencing factors in the trend of Hong Kong stocks are mainland economic policies (73.0%), followed by the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States (64.1%); investors' proportion of investing in Hong Kong stocks is 72%, a significant increase compared to last year, while investment in US stocks is 19%, slightly lower. Zhao Jing believes that in terms of the future global macroeconomic outlook, the election of Trump as President of the United States is believed to have a significant impact on geopolitical trends over the next four years; tariffs on imports and exports and inflation are likely to increase, adding pressure to the stock and property markets; the rapid development of artificial intelligence will help improve productivity in various industries, and industries suitable for artificial intelligence will benefit more. Chen Weiming, Senior Sales Manager at Yuexie Securities, shared investment strategies and prospects for the derivatives market. He believes that with the Republicans regaining control of the White House and both houses of Congress, there is a risk of further downward pressure on the Hong Kong A-share market in the short term. Retail investors can utilize "stock" futures or "weekly" options with lower entry barriers to implement a "bearish" strategy. Futures and options each have their own advantages and disadvantages, futures are not affected by time value decay or decreases in implied volatility, and are more straightforward; long positions in "weekly" options can be opened with less capital, and have strong short-term explosive power.