Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, with "terrifying data" expected to strike tonight.

1. Before the market opened on November 15th (Friday), the three major US stock index futures fell together. As of the time of publication, the Dow Jones futures fell by 0.36%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.50%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.73%. 2. As of the time of publication, the German DAX index rose by 0.17%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.04%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.11%. 3. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil fell by 1.02% to $68.00 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.01% to $71.83 per barrel. Market News "Frightening data" strikes tonight. The "frightening data" on the US retail sales monthly rate for October will be released tonight at 21:30, with market expectations of 0.3%, further highlighting the steady growth of US consumption. Powell's hawkish stance poured cold water on the December rate cut expectations, leading to a rise in the dollar and a sell-off in gold prices. Will tonight's "frightening data" cause more market turmoil? Beware of unexpected data causing significant market volatility. Powell turns hawkish! Two-year US Treasury yields rise, traders reduce bets on December rate cut. Following Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks, the yield on sensitive US government bonds rose. The two-year US Treasury yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.36%. Meanwhile, traders reduced their expectations of a December rate cut, with the probability of a December rate cut at the Fed's meeting falling to less than 60% in derivatives trading, down from about 80% a day earlier. Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment-grade and macro strategy at CreditSights, said, "The current market risks reflect a two-sided Fed policy path. Powell's comments were more hawkish as he took a risk-management approach to future policy." Powell stated in his Thursday speech that the US economy had not signaled a need for an urgent rate cut, although he did not comment on the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting. Forecasts completely wrong! $7 trillion fund movement surprises Wall Street. Wall Street analysts had predicted that a rate cut by the Fed and the subsequent rise in stock and bond markets would prompt investors to withdraw cash from money market funds on a large scale. However, their predictions were completely wrong! Despite rate cuts and a surge in the stock market, companies and households continue to pour cash into money market funds, leading to these accounts holding total assets exceeding $7 trillion for the first time this week. These funds are used to purchase US Treasury securities and other short-term instruments, and investors have become accustomed to benchmark interest rates above 5%, highlighting the attractiveness of rates above 5% to investors. Economists warn of weakening of three major "bull market drivers," signaling the end of stock market euphoria? American economist David Rosenberg warned clients in a report on Wednesday that the main factors driving a significant rise in the US stock market over the past 30 years are nearing extremes, indicating that future returns will be significantly lower. Rosenberg specifically pointed to recent trends in valuations, interest rates, and taxes. According to Rosenberg, these factors have reached their limits, which could put downward pressure on corporate earnings and, consequently, stock prices. Rosenberg said, "The stock market's momentum has little left." Speculative enthusiasm for Bitcoin cools, traders await next steps from Trump. Since Donald Trump won the US presidential election, speculation surrounding Bitcoin has cooled in both the spot and derivative markets. On Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated there was no rush to cut rates, the largest digital asset Bitcoin briefly fell below $87,000 per coin, dropping 3.79% intraday, around $6,500 lower than the record high set on Wednesday. In the derivative field, K33 Research stated that the premium on Bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange relative to the spot market price has declined. US institutional investors use these contracts to hold positions in the underlying cryptocurrency. Data from Amberdata showed a surge in outstanding contracts for put options with a strike price of $80,000 within 24 hours. BlackRock, Inc. launches US large-cap stock ETF, betting on large companies continuing to dominate the market. BlackRock, Inc. launched an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) iShares Core S&P 500 Index Top 20 UCITS ETF, which invests in the top 20 largest US companies, allowing European investors to target US large-cap stocks at a lower cost. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.2% and is listed on the London Stock Exchange, Amsterdam Stock Exchange, and Xetra. The launch of the fund coincided with positive views on the US stock market expressed by BlackRock, Inc. portfolio managers at the company's 2025 Outlook Forum last week. Despite high US stock valuations, BlackRock, Inc. managers believe that US exceptionalism, strong economic and corporate earnings growth, will continue to play a significant role. Individual Stock News RLX Technology, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (RLX.US) reports growth in revenue and net profit in the third quarter. RLX Technology, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A released its unaudited financial report for the third quarter of 2024, showing a significant growth in key financial metrics. In the third quarter, the company's non-GAAP earnings per share (EPADS) were $0.03, with revenue reaching $1.078 billion, up 51.59% year-on-year, and an increase of $2.94 million from the previous quarter. Adjusted net profit under non-GAAP measures increased by2.6 billion RMB, an increase of 22.9% month-on-month and an increase of 30.0% year-on-year. In addition, the sum of the company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term bank deposits, short-term investments, long-term bank deposits, and long-term investment securities reached $2.189 billion. The net cash generated from operating activities was $22.3 million.Application materials (AMAT.US) Q1 revenue guidance fell short of expectations, triggering chip demand concerns. Applied Materials' fourth-quarter revenue grew 5% to $7.05 billion, exceeding expectations of $6.95 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.32, also exceeding the expected $2.19. The company also released disappointing revenue guidance, indicating that some semiconductor customers may delay orders. Applied Materials' Q1 revenue guidance is below Wall Street's expectations, suggesting weak demand for the company's chip manufacturing equipment outside of artificial intelligence chips. Although there is strong demand for cutting-edge equipment for artificial intelligence chips, softness in certain markets has led to slower spending, impacting demand for companies like Applied Materials. According to data compiled by LSEG, Applied Materials expects Q1 revenue to be around $7.15 billion, lower than analysts' average estimate of $7.22 billion. The Biden administration promotes semiconductor localization, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) receives $6.6 billion in funding under the "Chip Act". The Biden administration has made significant progress in bringing semiconductor production back to the US mainland. The US Department of Commerce announced that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR will receive $6.6 billion in funding under the "Chip Act," the first legally binding award under the act. In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is also eligible for up to $50 billion in loans, with at least $10 billion to be disbursed this year. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized that this agreement is crucial for US national and economic security, ensuring the return of cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing business to the US. The "Chip and Science Act" provides $39 billion in grants, $75 billion in loans and loan guarantees, and a 25% tax credit to attract semiconductor manufacturing back. It is reported that the FTC plans to investigate anti-competitive practices in Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) cloud computing business. According to sources, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is preparing to investigate anti-competitive practices in Microsoft Corporation's cloud computing business. The agency is investigating allegations that the software giant may abuse its market power in the productivity software field by implementing punitive licensing terms to prevent customers from transferring their data from Azure cloud services to other competitive platforms effectively. The strategies under review include significantly raising subscription fees for departing users, charging high exit fees, and allegedly making its Office 365 products incompatible with competitors' clouds. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY.US) is accused of delaying cancer drug approvals, facing a $6.7 billion lawsuit. US pharmaceutical giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was hit with a $6.7 billion lawsuit on Thursday, accusing it of deceiving former Celgene shareholders by delaying federal approvals for three drugs. Just a month and a half before this new lawsuit, a US federal judge unexpectedly dismissed an early version of the case. The lawsuit alleges that Bristol-Myers Squibb Company intentionally delayed seeking drug approvals, including its flagship cancer drug Breyanzi, to cause additional losses of $9 per share in cash for holders of "Contingent Value Rights" (CVR). The lawsuit alleges that Bristol-Myers Squibb Company did this to intentionally avoid significant capital expenditures, even suspecting that this was done to avoid paying an additional $9 per share to CVR holders. Tyson vs. "Internet Celebrity Boxer" Paul attracts attention from all! Netflix (NFLX.US) will receive "unprecedented traffic". Former heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson and social media celebrity turned boxer "internet celebrity boxer" Jake Paul's highly anticipated boxing match on Friday is one of the latest marketing moves by Netflix, which will livestream the heavyweight boxing match in full, continuing to profit from the streaming craze of sports events. This "intergenerational showdown" has all the elements to become a popular cross-genre series, with 58-year-old legendary boxing champion Tyson representing the glory of the older generation of boxers, while 27-year-old Paul, who has gained fame and money on YouTube early on, has attracted a younger generation of social media fans and young boxing enthusiasts. General Motors Company (GM.US) self-driving department Cruise admits to submitting false reports and is fined $500,000. The US Department of Justice announced that General Motors Company's self-driving car subsidiary Cruise admitted on Thursday to submitting a false report to influence a federal investigation, and will pay a $500,000 criminal fine as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. Cruise did not disclose key details of a crash in October 2023 involving a self-driving taxi in San Francisco that hit a pedestrian who had already been hit by another car and dragged her 20 feet. Under the three-year agreement, Cruise must cooperate with the government's investigation, implement a safety compliance plan, and provide annual reports to the US Attorney's Office, with penalties if they fail to comply.If Cruise fails to comply with regulations in the next three years, the prosecutor's office can proceed with charges against him.Important Economic Data and Events Announcement At 21:30 Beijing time: US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US October Import Price Index (%) and US October Retail Sales Rate (%). At 22:15 Beijing time: US October Industrial Production Rate (%). At 23:00 Beijing time: US September Business Inventory Rate (%). At 02:00 the next day Beijing time: US total number of rigs in the US as of the week ending November 15th. At 22:00 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voting member, Boston Fed President Collins delivers opening speech at the 68th Economic Conference of the Bank. At 23:30 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voting member, Boston Fed President Collins interviews with Bloomberg TV. At 02:15 the next day Beijing time: FOMC Permanent Voting Member, New York Fed President Williams delivers opening remarks at an event. At 04:30 the next day Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly position report.