Silicon Industry Branch: Industrial silicon supply is expected to decrease in November, and polysilicon will continue to maintain a cumulative inventory status.

On November 15, the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the supply and demand analysis of the silicon industry in October. According to Antaike statistics, industrial silicon continued to accumulate inventory in October, with supply exceeding demand by 90,000 tons. The supply in October (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon) was around 500,000 tons, while demand (including export forecasts) was around 410,000 tons. By the end of October, the inventory of the industrial silicon industry was around 870,000 tons, still at a high level. It is predicted that in November, due to the shutdown and reduction of production by manufacturers in the southwest during the dry season, the output will decrease to around 420,000 tons, with a total supply of 460,000 tons (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon); downstream organic silicon capacity will be put into operation, polycrystalline silicon companies have maintenance and production reduction plans, aluminum alloy companies are operating normally, and the overall domestic demand is around 340,000 tons, with exports at 60,000 tons. It is estimated that supply will decrease and demand will slightly decrease in November, with supply exceeding demand by around 60,000 tons. According to Antaike statistics, the cumulative supply and demand balance of polycrystalline silicon in October 2024 increased by 30,100 tons. The supply of polycrystalline silicon (including import forecasts) was around 136,600 tons, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon (including export forecasts) was around 106,500 tons. By the end of October, the cumulative inventory of polycrystalline silicon was around 358,000 tons, at a relatively high level. Based on the production scheduling of upstream and downstream companies in November, there are expectations of production adjustments for polycrystalline silicon and downstream silicon wafers, and it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will continue to maintain an accumulation of inventory in November, but the extent of the accumulation will decrease, with an increase of around 28,000 tons. According to statistics, on the supply side, the actual supply of silicon wafers was 43.6GW. The battery production in October was 51GW, remaining flat compared to the previous month. The export volume of silicon wafers in October was around 2.5GW, and the apparent demand for silicon wafers was around 54GW. According to supply and demand balance calculations, the inventory absorbed in October was around 10.4GW. By the end of October, the cumulative inventory of silicon wafers was around 8.2GW (including raw material inventory of battery companies), and the inventory of silicon wafers has dropped to around one week level, with the overall supply and demand relationship basically at a reasonable level. If downstream battery companies maintain their production load, it is expected that the inventory of silicon wafers in November will further decrease. According to the production scheduling plans of silicon wafer companies, it is expected that the production of silicon wafers in November will be around 42GW, a decrease of 1-2GW compared to the previous month. The inventory of silicon wafers in November will continue the trend of absorption, with an overall consumption of inventory of around 8GW. The supply and demand relationship in the silicon wafer segment has significantly improved, but there are structural contradictions between different sizes of products, with large-sized silicon wafers slightly in excess compared to small-sized silicon wafers. In the medium to long term, if battery companies continue to maintain high production loads, the structural supply and demand imbalance at the silicon wafer end is expected to be resolved by the end of the year.