Material circulation Association: In October, BHI slightly increased, and the national building materials home market continues the prosperous season of "Golden September and Silver October". (Note: The translation may not be exact, as the original text seems to be a headline or fragment of a sentence.)

On November 15th, the China State Construction Engineering Corporation Materials Circulation Association issued a statement, stating that the national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index (BHI) for October was 127.65, a month-on-month increase of 0.97 points, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.77 points. The sales of building materials and home furnishings of scale-above stores nationwide in October amounted to 1444.03 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 1.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.71%; the cumulative sales from January to October were 12,298.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.62%. The national building materials and home furnishings market in October continued the strong seasonality trend, with consumer demand further stimulated by the "trade-in for new" and a package of incremental policies, leading to a slight increase in BHI in October. Firstly, analyzing the national real estate market situation: since the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 proposed to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market", the four major first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have optimized their purchase restrictions policies, and core second-tier cities have basically lifted purchase restrictions. In addition to the policies implemented since the end of September, such as reducing down payments for first and second homes, reducing interest rates on existing home loans, reserve requirements, and interest rates, the favorable policies continue to be released. In the new housing market sector, in October, real estate developers accelerated the pace of launching new projects, leading to an increase in the average housing prices in one hundred cities; during the National Day holiday, the visitation and subscription volume of real estate projects in several core cities increased significantly, driving a substantial increase in sales area in October. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in October 2024, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities nationwide was 16,532 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 2.08%. As for the second-hand housing market sector, the expected recovery brought about by policies has led to an increase in transactions of second-hand homes in core cities, shrinking negotiation space for owners, and a narrowing in the month-on-month decline of the average prices of second-hand homes in one hundred cities nationwide in October. The data shows that in October, the average price of second-hand homes in one hundred cities in the country was 14,360 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, a 0.1 percentage point narrower decline compared to September, and a year-on-year decline of 7.27%. The national building materials and home furnishings market in October, closely related to the real estate market, continued its strong season trend, with sales in scale-above building materials and home furnishing stores increasing by 0.97% month-on-month, maintaining at a high level. Since the end of September, the effects of the "trade-in for new" subsidy policies in various regions have been accelerating, combined with the effects of the National Day holiday and the "extended Double Eleven" festive season, consumer demand for building materials and home furnishings continues to be released, and market activity continues to rise. Secondly, analyzing the situation of various sub-indices of BHI: the sub-index "popularity index" performed well this month, with a value of 184.87, a month-on-month increase of 55.92 points, ranking first. This month, various counties and districts have successively implemented detailed rules on subsidies for the home improvement sector of the "trade-in for new" policy, combined with the peak consumption period during the National Day holiday, companies have seized sales opportunities through a variety of colorful marketing activities, leading to a substantial increase in market foot traffic; however, the year-on-year decline of 34.70 points in the "popularity index" this month indicates that the trend of online traffic is becoming increasingly prominent, making it increasingly difficult to attract foot traffic to stores. The sub-index with the highest month-on-month decline this month is the "manager's confidence index", as this leading indicator had a value of 107.54, a month-on-month decline of 52.36 points, and a year-on-year decline of 4.59 points. As the market is about to enter the traditional winter off-season, it is reasonable for the "manager's confidence index" to decline in advance due to the difficulty in sustaining the growth trend of "Golden September, Silver October". According to the PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI in October was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after five months, indicating that with the stronger implementation of the comprehensive incremental policies and the gradual manifestation of the existing policies, the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilizing, and corporate confidence is also being boosted. Furthermore, it is recommended that building materials and home furnishing enterprises deeply understand the strategic intent of the "two news" (large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in for new consumer goods) policy, especially the "trade-in for new" policy. The benefits to enterprises are not only driven by "depreciation upgrades", but also promote consumption upgrades and promote long-term measures for green and low-carbon development. Enterprises should seize the current trend of higher-end, more intelligent, environmentally friendly, and personalized demands through the four aspects of "able to consume, willing to consume, convenient to consume, and daring to consume," and effectively enhance the new quality productivity of the industry.