Guoyuan: Self-driving industry welcomes new opportunities for development. Pay attention to investment opportunities in related electronic component manufacturers.

Guoyuan released a research report saying that Tesla is expected to produce Robotaxi in 2026 and start mass production in 2027. If the Model 3/Y passes approval in China and Europe in Q1 2025, they will be the first to experience autonomous driving functionality, potentially becoming autonomous driving taxis. Other new energy vehicle manufacturers are also following suit with Robotaxi, which is expected to drive demand for electronic components such as in-vehicle cameras, storage chips, wireless charging modules, SoC, intelligent cabins, and PCBs. Guoyuan's main points include: In-vehicle cameras (CIS): The advancement of autonomous driving levels is driving the demand for in-vehicle cameras and CIS. The main increase in cameras comes from forward vision, showing a trend towards multi-orientation and high pixels. Binocular and trinocular cameras are becoming mainstream due to higher accuracy, and 8MCIS has a better data capture capability compared to 1-2M, driving demand for high pixel forward vision CIS. Storage chips: DRAM is gradually upgraded from LPDDR4 of L1/L2 to GDDR6 of L4/L5, with L5 bandwidth about 9 times that of L1; NAND is upgraded from eMMC of L1/L2 to PCIe of L4/L5, with L5 capacity about 20 times that of L1. The number of NorFlash components is increasing from a dozen to dozens, and the demand for intelligent car EEPROM reaches 30-40 components. The proportion of automotive storage chips in automotive semiconductors will increase from 8% in 2023 to 10-11% in 2028. Wireless charging modules: To achieve full automation in autonomous driving, the issue of wireless charging still needs to be addressed. Tesla has submitted four magnetic resonance charging technologies, which may be the answer. Currently, the power of wireless charging devices is similar to AC charging piles, and as costs gradually decrease, they will have a substitution effect in the medium to long term. Research teams have developed a 100kW wireless charging device, which may replace some DC charging piles in the long term as technology matures and costs decrease. SoC: The shift of cars to centralized domain controller architecture is driving demand for SoC usage. The global and Chinese SoC market size CAGR for ADAS applications is expected to reach 24% and 23% from 2024 to 2028. In the development of advanced intelligent driving functions, larger computational power SoC chips (100TOPS) are needed to support new algorithms and more advanced vehicle EE architecture (central computing + regional control). Intelligent cabins: Intelligent cabins provide a comprehensive experience for passengers in terms of safety, intelligence, efficiency, and pleasure through human-machine interaction, networked services, and scenario expansion. The realization of these functions requires the involvement of display devices and communication modules. As functionality increases and the penetration rate of intelligent cabins rises, it will drive demand for related components. The global intelligent cabin market size CAGR from 2022 to 2025 reaches 10% and 12%, with China leading the world with an 11% penetration rate in 2022, and the gap is expected to widen in the coming years. PCB: The process of electrifying cars is deepening, and it is expected that by 2030, automotive electronics will account for 50% of the overall cost of cars, driving a continuous increase in PCB usage. In terms of segmented products, the data transfer speed required for intelligent cabins and ADAS is high, which will further increase the usage of multilayer boards and HDI, especially with HDI usage CAGR of 16.5% from 2022 to 2028, higher than the overall PCB growth rate of 7.1%. The second highest is soft board, with a CAGR of 9.1%, and multilayer boards at 7.1%. Recommended Focus: CIS: Will Semiconductor (603501.SH), Smartsens Technology (688213.SH), GalaxyCore Inc. (688728.SH) In-vehicle storage: GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. (603986.SH), Ingenic Semiconductor (300223.SZ), Dosilicon Co., Ltd. (688110.SH) Wireless charging modules: Luxshare Precision Industry (002475.SZ) Magnetic materials: TDG Holding (600330.SH), Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-tech (000970.SZ), Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.SH) Analog chips: SG Micro Corp (300661.SH), Suzhou Novosense Microelectronics (688052.SH), 3peak Incorporated (688536.SH) Intelligent cabins: Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics (003021.SZ), Huizhou Desay SV Automotive (002920.SZ) PCB: Olympic Circuit Technology (603920.SH), Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (603228.SH), Wus Printed Circuit (002463.SZ) Risk Warning: Upside risks: Acceleration of autonomous driving progress; early approval of autonomous driving by governments; accelerated launch of wireless charging functions Downside risks: Macroeconomic downturn; slower progress of autonomous driving by new energy vehicle manufacturers; slower than expected launch of wireless charging functions; other systemic risks