Is the weight loss drug market huge? "The Lancet" predicts that the overweight population in the United States will increase significantly.

Researchers say that if the current trend continues, the number of overweight and obese people in the United States will increase significantly over the next 25 years, and new weight loss therapies will not be sufficient to curb this trend. A study published in the medical journal The Lancet on Thursday shows that by 2050, nearly 260 million people in the United States will be overweight or obese, putting pressure on the healthcare system and driving up healthcare costs. The incidence of obesity in adult males is projected to rise from 76% in 2021 to 81%, while in females it is expected to increase from 73% to 82%. Despite slow progress in recognizing obesity as a disease in healthcare institutions, it increases the risk of various dangerous and common health consequences, including diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. Marie Ng, co-author of the study and associate professor at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, says that the success of weight loss drugs should not overshadow the need for actions such as promoting healthy eating and exercise, which are crucial in slowing the development of the crisis. Ng said, "All these factors together have led to a continued increase in the obesity rate over the past thirty years. If these factors persist, the obesity crisis may worsen." Both obesity and overweight are defined by body mass index (BMI), a measure calculated based on height and weight. Obesity has more serious effects than being overweight. GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy from Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) and Zepbound from Eli Lilly and Company (LLY.US) have been shown to help patients safely lose weight while reducing some related health risks. The use of these drugs is hindered by supply shortages, inconsistent insurance coverage, and monthly injection costs of around $1000. Ng stated, "It is very important that fair access is secured if we are to leverage these drugs." She added that the long-term effects of using these drugs in a large population remain uncertain. Ng pointed out that in the 30 years leading up to 2021, the obesity rate in the United States doubled, due to factors including an increase in high-calorie foods, sedentary lifestyles, and reduced access to healthy foods, particularly in low-income communities. According to the study, it is estimated that by 2050, around one-fifth of children and at least one-third of adolescents will have obesity. The study shows that while the southern states are expected to remain among the most affected, by 2050, the largest increase in male population is projected in Colorado and New Mexico, while Kansas and Colorado are expected to have the largest increase in the female population. Ng stated that no region will be exempt from the expected increase in weight. She said that obesity is "not just a problem in a particular state, but a problem for the entire country."