Preview of US Stock Market | "Three major stock index futures rise together, Powell's speech is about to strike."

1. Before the US stock market opened on Thursday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.12%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.09%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 1.32%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.40%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.99%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.37%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.34%, to $68.66 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.35%, to $72.53 per barrel. Market news At 4 o'clock in the morning, Powell's speech came as a heavy blow. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a dialogue at 4:00 am Beijing time tomorrow, making his first public speech since the November FOMC meeting, possibly giving his opinions on recent economic data. Yesterday's US CPI data met expectations, increasing the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The market is watching whether Powell's speech will release more signals. Uncertainty increases in rate cut prospects, Federal Reserve officials urge caution. Several Federal Reserve officials reiterated on Wednesday that they are uncertain about how much the Fed needs to reduce rates, highlighting the difficulty policymakers face in trying to determine the right environment to maintain economic stability. Kansas City Fed President Schmid said, "While it's time to start easing monetary policy now, how much further rates will decline, or where they may ultimately settle, remains to be seen." Comments like Schmid's have become a mantra for Federal Reserve officials. Many believe that the neutral rate - a level of interest rates that neither promotes nor hinders economic growth - may have risen since the pandemic, but no one is confident about its position. IEA warns: Global oil market will face over a million barrels of oversupply next year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that due to the energy transition leading to continued low demand from Petrochina, the global oil market will face an oversupply of over 1 million barrels per day next year, buffering the impact of turmoil in the Middle East and other regions on oil prices. The IEA said in a monthly report on Thursday that as of September, China's oil consumption has shrunk for six consecutive months, with growth this year at only 10% of the 2023 level. For the past 20 years, China has been the engine of the global oil market. The agency stated that if OPEC+ decides to continue with plans to restore production at the next meeting, global oversupply will become more severe. IEA Director of Oil Industry and Markets, Toril Bosoni, said in an interview on Thursday that China's oil demand may have already peaked. Bullish momentum! US dollar index near 2-year high, gold falls to 8-week low. Despite US inflation data supporting the likelihood of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, the sharp rise in the dollar has kept pressure on gold prices, leading to four consecutive days of decline. At the time of writing, the price of spot gold has not changed much, at $2574.55 per ounce. The US dollar spot index remained stable after reaching its highest level since 2022 on Wednesday. Silver rose slightly, palladium remained flat, and platinum fell. Gold prices fell 1% in the previous trading session, then stabilized on Thursday after hitting an 8-week low. Expectations that the election of President Trump will boost corporate profits at CKH HOLDINGS have pushed a measure of the dollar to a two-year high. The strengthened dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more expensive for most buyers. Witness a milestone in cryptocurrency! Total market value exceeds $3.2 trillion, surpassing Microsoft Corporation, reaching a historic high. The cumulative market value of the global cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, has surpassed the epic $3 trillion mark and has already reached $3.2 trillion in the early stages of Asian trading today. The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, after four years, is about to return to the White House, prompting cryptocurrency enthusiasts to collectively bet that the new US government led by Trump will bring a more friendly and relaxed regulatory environment, potentially bringing new prosperity to this category of risky assets. In the early stages of Asian trading on November 14, the overall market value of the cryptocurrency market reached a historic high of $3.2 trillion. Compared to the already reached total market value of $3.2 trillion, the cryptocurrency market value has surpassed Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US). Risk ignored by the US stock market? J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Trump's tariff plan may trigger stagflation issues. David Kelly, Chief Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that Trump's aggressive tariff plan could slow down the global economy and put upward pressure on US inflation, highlighting risks that were largely overlooked during the stock market rebound after the US election. Kelly said, "The first sign is that the tariff measures will be very aggressive and there is almost nothing that can cure stagflation. Stagflation means inflation rising while the economy is slowing down. Countermeasures will only make the whole world worse. The tariff issue will trigger many conflicts. If you hit someone's nose, they will hit back. That's why they call it a tariff war." Individual stock news Cisco Systems, Inc.(CSCO.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, full-year sales guidance slightly conservative. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 ending October 26, Cisco Systems, Inc. saw a 6% year-on-year decrease in sales to $13.8 billion, beating analyst expectations of $13.77 billion; adjusted net profit was $3.7 billion, down 19% year-on-year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.91, beating analyst expectations of $0.87. Looking ahead, Cisco Systems, Inc. expects second-quarter sales to be between $13.75 billion and $13.95 billion, better than analyst expectations of $13.74 billion; the company also expects full-year sales for fiscal year 2025 to beSales will be between $553 billion and $563 billion, higher than previously forecasted, but the midpoint of the forecast range is below analysts' expectations of $559 billion.Dada Nexus Ltd. Sponsored ADR (DADA.US) Q3 order volume accelerates, JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A achieves a new peak in online order volume during the Double 11 period. Instant retail and delivery platform Dada Nexus Ltd. Sponsored ADR's third-quarter financial report shows that the company's Q3 revenue was 24.294 billion yuan, compared to 26.218 billion yuan in the same period last year. Basic and diluted loss per share was 0.19 yuan, compared to a loss of 0.16 yuan per share in the same period last year. By business segment, Dada's instant delivery platform Q3 revenue increased by 38.6% to 14.992 billion yuan, compared to 10.816 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in orders for same-city instant delivery services provided to various chain merchants. JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A's Q3 revenue was 9.302 billion yuan, compared to 15.403 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease in online advertising and marketing service revenue, as well as a reduction in fulfillment services and other income due to the delivery fee exemption program for orders over 29 yuan launched since February 2024. Central bank rate hike boosts profit margins! Mizuho (MFG.US) Q2 profit surges 62%, first time launching a 100 billion yen share buyback plan in 16 years. With strong loan demand and a boost in profit margins after the Japanese central bank raised rates in July, Mizuho Financial Group Inc Sponsored ADR's net profit increased by 62% in the second quarter, and the annual guidance was raised. Data shows that the group reported a net profit of 277 billion yen from July to September, higher than 170 billion yen in the same period last year. Profits in the first half increased by 36% year-on-year to 566.1 billion yen. Looking ahead, the third-largest bank in Japan by asset size raises its net profit expectation for the fiscal year ending March 31 from 750 billion yen to a record 820 billion yen (approximately 52.6 billion USD). Mizuho also announced a share buyback of up to 100 billion yen, the first in 16 years, and raised its dividend expectations for this year by 15 yen to 130 yen. Youdao Inc ADR Class A (DAO.US) third-quarter financial report: Net income of 1.57 billion, quarterly profit hits a record high. Netease Inc Sponsored ADR Youdao Inc ADR Class A achieved third-quarter net revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a 2.2% increase year-on-year. Operating profit reached 110 million yuan, marking the first time a profit was achieved in the third quarter and the highest quarterly profit in history. Operating cash outflow narrowed to 85.4 million yuan, a 71.0% decrease year-on-year. During the reporting period, Youdao Inc ADR Class A continued to focus on advantageous courses, with learning service net revenue of 770 million yuan. By controlling costs and expenses reasonably, the overall health of the business improved significantly. Net revenue from digital content services reached 510 million yuan, contributing substantial operating profit while covering costs and operating expenses. Foxconn Q3 net profit increases by 14%, AI server business drives high growth expectations for the year. The world's largest electronics contract manufacturer, Foxconn (officially known as Hon Hai Precision Industry), expects its artificial intelligence server business to achieve strong growth next year and maintains expectations for "significant" sales growth in 2024. The company predicts that AI servers will account for 50% of its total server revenue. As a major supplier to Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), its third-quarter profit increased by 14%, exceeding expectations, and sales in October reached a new monthly high, with fourth-quarter revenue expected to grow year-on-year. Bilibili, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class Z (BILI.US) third-quarter gross profit of 2.547 billion yuan, a 75.62% increase year-on-year, with daily active users and monthly active users reaching new highs. Bilibili, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class Z achieved a total net operating revenue of 7.306 billion yuan in the third quarter, a 25.85% increase year-on-year; gross profit was 2.547 billion yuan, a 75.62% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 34.9%, up from 25.0% in the same period last year. Among them, mobile game revenue was 1.823 billion yuan, an 84% increase year-on-year; advertising revenue was 2.094 billion yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year. In addition, the average daily active users reached 107.3 million, compared to 102.8 million in the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2024, total net operating revenue reached 19.097 billion yuan, an 18.04% increase year-on-year; gross profit was 5.986 billion yuan, a 58.27% increase year-on-year. JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (JD.US) third-quarter net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 11.731 billion yuan, a 47.82% increase year-on-year. JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A achieved total revenue of 260.387 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 5.12% year-on-year; net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 11.731 billion yuan, up 47.82% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were 4.02 yuan. In the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 811.833 billion yuan, an increase of 4.27% year-on-year; net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 31.505 billion yuan, an increase of 51.63% year-on-year; and basic earnings per share were 10.44 yuan. Netease Inc Sponsored ADR (NTES.US) Q3 revenue of 26.2 billion yuan, R&D intensity reaches 16.9%. NetEase ISponsored ADRQ3 net income was 26.2 billion yuan, with the net profit attributable to the company's shareholders under non-GAAP accounting standards reaching 7.5 billion yuan. Research and development investment during the quarter was 4.4 billion yuan, with a research and development investment intensity of 16.9%, leading the industry; deferred revenue was 15.5 billion yuan, a 14% increase compared to the previous quarter. From January 10, 2023 to September 30, 2024, the company repurchased approximately 1.6 billion US dollars of American depositary shares, with repurchases of 500 million US dollars in shares in Q3 of 2024, a 98% increase from the previous quarter, sending a positive signal and further boosting market confidence.Important Economic Data and Events Preview At 21:30 Beijing time: US initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending November 9th, US PPI year-on-year for October. At midnight Beijing time the next day: US EIA crude oil inventory change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending November 8th. At 20:00 Beijing time: Speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Brainard. At 20:00 Beijing time: Speech by 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin. At 04:00 Beijing time the next day: Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell. At 05:15 Beijing time the next day: Speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams. Earnings Preview Friday morning: Applied Materials (AMAT.US) Friday pre-market: Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US)