Gifts are surprising, but Nu and Nord come to the rescue! The future of the weight loss drug market still makes many players drool.

As one of the leading players in the weight loss drug market, Eli Lilly's flagship weight loss drug Zepbound's sales performance in the third quarter fell short of expectations, causing investors to worry about the prospects of the weight loss drug market. Luckily, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's subsequent announcement of Wegovy's sales performance relieved investors. The weight loss drug market still has vast potential, with most institutions predicting that the market size will reach billions of dollars by the end of this decade. In addition to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, which currently dominate the weight loss drug market, many pharmaceutical companies are intensifying their research and development of weight loss drugs in order to grab a share of this high-potential market. Eli Lilly's Zepbound sales falling short of expectations scared the market, but Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's Wegovy performance reassured the market. Eli Lilly's 2024 third-quarter performance, announced at the end of October, showed that sales of its flagship weight loss drug Zepbound (with the active ingredient tirzepatide) fell short of market expectations, causing investors concerned about the prospects of the weight loss drug market. The financial report showed that Eli Lilly's third-quarter revenue was $11.439 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year. However, the sales of Zepbound, the most anticipated product, were only $1.26 billion, far below analysts' expectations of $1.76 billion. Mounjaro, a diabetes treatment drug with tirzepatide as the active ingredient, also had lower sales than expected at $3.11 billion in the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $3.7 billion. Eli Lilly attributed the lower-than-expected sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro in the third quarter to wholesalers cutting their inventory of these two drugs. The pharmaceutical giant stated that increased supply allowed the company to fulfill delayed orders from wholesalers in the second quarter, leading to an increase in the wholesalers' inventory of Zepbound and Mounjaro. In the third quarter, these wholesalers used some of their existing inventory rather than purchasing more from the company, suppressing the sales of the two drugs. During the third-quarter earnings call, Eli Lilly executives insisted that the potential demand for drugs like Zepbound remained strong. CEO Dave Ricks stated, "The reason is there is too much channel inventory. I think that's something we actually can't control and don't want to try to control. But the reality is that Lilly's downstream customers - the wholesalers, the retailers - are making their own decisions about what level of inventory they want to hold against 12 different presentations." Dave Ricks pointed out that wholesalers are dealing with financial pressures and other limiting factors, and they must also address limits on cold chain capabilities to ensure the quality of the drug from manufacturing to delivery. He added that Lilly has not yet started its so-called "demand-stimulating activities," which include advertising and promoting Zepbound, and the company will start these efforts in November. Other Lilly executives also mentioned that the company is heavily investing in its direct-to-consumer website, which offers remote medical prescriptions and direct delivery of certain drugs, to expand the patients' access channels. Some Wall Street analysts also agreed with Eli Lilly's explanation. Citigroup analyst Geoff Meacham stated, "The culprit is inventory destocking of Zepbound and Mounjaro, not weak demand." RBC Capital Markets healthcare stock strategist Jared Holz also pointed out that destocking - selling existing drug inventory rather than adding more inventory - was surprising, especially given the high demand for these drugs. Jared Holz added that Lilly has invested $10-15 billion this year alone to expand its capacity, which should "help reverse some of the trends reported." However, some analysts disagree with Eli Lilly's statement. Barclays analyst Carter Gould said that inventory factors may only explain "a small part," approximately a 20% decline in drug revenue. Following Eli Lilly's third-quarter financial report on October 30, its stock fell over 6%. As one of the "two leaders" in the weight loss drug market, Eli Lilly's Zepbound sales performance also raised concerns among investors about signs of weak demand for weight loss drugs. However, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's financial report released a week later provided a reassurance to the market. The report showed that Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's third-quarter net sales were DKK 71.311 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year. Among them, the popular weight loss drug Wegovy (with semaglutide as the active ingredient) had a sales of DKK 17.304 billion in the quarter, a 79% increase year-over-year, far exceeding the market's expected DKK 15.6 billion. With more insurance companies agreeing to pay for the drug, even though the price has decreased, Wegovy's sales in the U.S. market still increased by approximately 50%. Buoyed by strong drug sales, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B also raised its full-year performance guidance. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B expects, at fixed exchange rates, full-year 2024 sales to grow 23%-27%, compared to the previous expectation of 22%-28%; and full-year operating profit to increase 21%-27%, compared to the previous expectation of 20%-28%. The weight loss drug market still has vast potential, with the prospect of reaching billions of dollars in size!The development momentum of the global weight loss drug market is continuously strengthening. Many pharmaceutical companies have realized the huge potential of the weight loss drug market and have invested resources in drug research and development in order to compete in the market. At the same time, traditional pharmaceutical companies are expanding their market share by developing new drugs and increasing production capacity.The market currently generally expects that the size of the weight loss drug market is expected to reach around one trillion US dollars by 2030. BMO Capital Markets predicts that by 2030, annual sales of weight loss drugs will reach 150 billion US dollars, higher than the bank's previous forecast of 100 billion US dollars. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also raised its forecast for the global weight loss drug market size in 2030 from the end of last year's prediction of 100 billion US dollars to 130 billion US dollars in May of this year. Financial services company Leerink Partners predicts that by 2032, the global weight loss drug market size will rise to 158 billion US dollars. Healthcare analysis company IQVIA pointed out in its outlook for the next five years released earlier this year that in 2023, people worldwide spent 24 billion US dollars on weight loss drugs, and this number is expected to rise to 131 billion US dollars by 2028. This implies a 27% annual growth rate, higher than the previously predicted 13% annual growth rate. Michael Kleinrock, Senior Research Director at IQVIA's Institute of Data Science, said that the increase to 131 billion US dollars will depend on how long patients continue to use weight loss drugs and whether these drugs can be used to treat other diseases, or if pharmaceutical companies develop new direct-to-consumer sales models. Many pharmaceutical companies are pouring into the race, which players are worth paying attention to? 1. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B As one of the leaders in the weight loss drug market, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B has achieved great success with GLP-1 class drugs, especially semaglutide. However, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B clearly hopes for more, and the company's most attractive potential product is the revolutionary weight loss therapy CagriSema. CagriSema is a compound preparation composed of semaglutide and a glucagon-like peptide analogue called cagrilintide. Cagrilintide is a long-acting glucagon-like peptide analogue that works by slowing gastric emptying and promoting satiety in blood sugar regulation to prevent postprandial blood sugar levels from rising. Previous studies have shown that cagrilintide is more effective in lowering blood sugar and weight than semaglutide alone. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B expects that CagriSema will achieve a weight loss of at least 25%, and without any additional side effects compared to the previous generation weight loss drug Wegovy. The company states that CagriSema will effectively address the problem of "weight regain after stopping the drug" and become the most effective weight loss drug to date. Analysts at the globally renowned pharmaceutical data consulting firm Evaluate Pharma forecast that 2025 will be the year of CagriSema. The organization's sales forecast for CagriSema is $20.5 billion by 2030 (indications include obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases). The estimated net present value (NPV) of CagriSema is $81.3 billion, promising to become a new flagship asset and ensuring the revenue growth of Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B after the patent protection for Wegovy expires in 2032, thereby ensuring the company's leading position in the weight loss drug market. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's orally administered weight loss drug Amycretin is also worth noting. Preliminary phase I study data presented by Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) annual meeting in September showed that in overweight/obese non-diabetic adults, daily oral administration of Amycretin had good tolerability and safety, with an average weight loss of 13.1% in just 12 weeks, compared to a placebo group with an average weight loss of only 1.1%. Additionally, at the end of the treatment, patients in the Amycretin group had not yet reached a weight loss plateau, indicating that their weight could continue to decrease. 2. Eli Lilly Eli Lilly's GLP-1/GIP/GCG triple-target agonist Retatrutide under development is considered the next generation product to replace semaglutide. Trial data shows that compared to semaglutide, Retatrutide's Phase 2 data is even more impressive - in Phase 2 clinical trials, the average weight loss rate with Retatrutide starting from baseline (initial weight) was 17.5% at 24 weeks and 24.2% at 48 weeks. Eli Lilly believes that Retatrutide is expected to further improve efficacy based on semaglutide and the highest expected dose can reduce weight by 22-24%, mainly through fat reduction. The company registered the ninth Phase 3 clinical trial of Retatrutide on October 28, with head-to-head comparisons with semaglutide for weight loss. The Phase 3 clinical trial plans to enroll 800 obese patients and is expected to be completed in April 2027. Additionally, the orally administered small molecule GLP-1R agonist Orforglipron developed by Eli Lilly has shown to be equally impressive in weight loss efficacy in trials. Phase 2 clinical data shows that once-daily oral Orforglipron resulted in an average weight loss of 14.7% in overweight or obese adults at 36 weeks. Although the oral version requires daily dosing, patients evidently have higher compliance. Eli Lilly registered another Phase 3 clinical trial for weight loss of Orforglipron in September this year. The aim of this Phase 3 clinical trial is to.The purpose of the study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Orforglipron as a maintenance treatment for weight reduction. The plan is to enroll 480 obese patients, with an expected completion date of January 2026.Lilly is still considering expanding the test subjects of its popular weight loss drugs to individuals who are not currently overweight but at risk of gaining weight. Lilly's CEO Dave Ricks stated that the company is planning to study the effects of its anti-obesity drugs in individuals who currently have a BMI (Body Mass Index) that is not classified as overweight. Currently, Lilly's Zepbound and experimental weight loss drug Orforglipron are being tested on patients with a BMI of 30 or higher, or a BMI of 27 and above with weight-related health issues. Dave Ricks believes that, especially for Orforglipron, this drug may provide more moderate weight loss compared to other treatment methods, so it may be necessary to lower this threshold. 3. Amgen American pharmaceutical giant Amgen (AMGN.US) is testing a weight loss drug called MariTide. A small-scale early clinical trial showed that patients taking the highest dose of 420 mg of MariTide lost an average of 14.5% of their weight in 12 weeks. In contrast to currently marketed weight loss drugs, MariTide seems to help patients maintain weight loss for a longer period after discontinuation. Moreover, MariTide's dosing frequency may be lower than existing drugs - Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound require weekly injections, while MariTide can be injected once a month or even longer. A lower dosing frequency may be a major selling point for MariTide, as many patients do not want frequent injections. 4. Viking Therapeutics The progress of Viking Therapeutics' weight loss drug VK2735 has attracted market attention. In early November, the company announced that participants taking 100 mg of VK2735 in a study lost an average of 8.2% of their weight in 28 days, compared to a 6.8% weight loss in patients taking a placebo. This indicates that their experimental drug VK2735 at higher doses may be more effective in reducing weight than early formulations, laying a solid foundation for its competition with heavyweight drugs from Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, Lilly, and others. 5. Zealand Pharma Danish biotechnology company Zealand Pharma announced in September that its GLP-1/GLP-2 dual receptor agonist Dapiglutide showed positive results in a Phase 1b trial. In addition, the company announced in June that its long-acting insulin analogue Petrelintide showed positive top-line results in a Phase 1b trial. This may distinguish itself in the competition with Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B and Lilly's weight loss drugs, providing a potentially high safety alternative for obese patients intolerant to GLP-1, with a potential market size far exceeding GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Zealand Pharma pointed out that a series of clinical data and studies currently show that compared to GLP-1 drugs, Petrelintide has the potential to provide the same weight loss effects with better tolerability, offering a better weight loss experience. Additionally, the drug can retain more lean muscle mass, achieving higher quality weight loss. 6. Altimmune Pharmaceutical company Altimmune (ALT.US) announced in late June that the latest clinical trial data showed that their GLP-1/GCG dual receptor agonist pemvidutide achieved best-in-class results in promoting weight loss while maintaining lean body mass. The trial results showed that at week 48, only 21.9% of the weight lost in patients treated with pemvidutide was attributed to lean body mass, while 78.1% was attributed to fat. Prior to this, although GLP-1 weight loss drugs had outstanding weight loss effects, there was a problem where not only fat was lost but also lean body mass - for example, around 40% of the weight lost with semaglutide at week 68 was lean body mass. Therefore, Altimmune's positive data may help them gain an advantage in the weight loss drug market in the future. 7. Roche In early December last year, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (RHHBY.US) announced the acquisition of American private clinical-stage biotechnology company Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion in cash, and will acquire three clinical-stage assets with best-in-class potential in obesity and diabetes held by the company, including: CT-388, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for the treatment of obese patients with or without type 2 diabetes; CT-996, a small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist aimed at treating obese patients with or without type 2 diabetes; CT-868, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for overweight or obese patients with type 1 diabetes. However, data released by Roche in September showed that the highly anticipated weight loss candidate drug CT-996 had a high proportion of temporary side effects in the early trial phase. In terms of efficacy, Roche stated that obese non-diabetic patients taking CT-996 once daily lost an average of 6.1% of their weight in four weeks (adjusted for placebo). It is reported that all 25 trial participants experienced mild to moderate side effects, or adverse events in industry terms. Roche explained that the first phase of the trial followed the standard practice of increasing drug doses, a process known as titration, faster than planned for later trial stages.In order to quickly discover any unforeseen side effects. The company stated that the frequency of adverse events "is consistent with rapid titration and early development", "these data support further research on CT-996 in studies with longer duration, larger sample size, and slower titration speed".Bonjour! Comment a va aujourd'hui?