Cui Dongshu: From January to October, 2.32 million domestic commercial vehicles were insured, a 3% decrease from the same period last year.

On November 14th, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that according to the data from the National Financial Bureau, the data of commercial vehicle insurance in China has experienced strong growth before 2021, but has recently entered a low-speed growth phase. Due to the complex interference of the Spring Festival factors, the domestic commercial vehicle insurance for 1-2 months this year has temporarily performed poorly, but in March it has rebounded strongly after the festival, with insurance data declining from April to October. From January to October this year, domestic insurance for commercial vehicles reached 2.32 million units, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year; in October, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 225,000 units, a 5% decrease year-on-year and a 1% decrease month-on-month from September. In recent years, the export market of fuel vehicles for commercial vehicles has surged, while domestic fuel vehicles have plummeted, resulting in a significant disparity in demand between domestic and foreign markets. From January to October 2024, sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 435,000 units, an 87% year-on-year increase; in October 2024, it reached 55,000 units, a 64% year-on-year increase. During the same period, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in the commercial vehicle market reached 19%, with the penetration rate reaching 25% in October, an 11 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year, showing a relatively strong performance driven by policy incentives. 1. Analysis of national commercial vehicle market insurance data In recent years, the domestic commercial vehicle market has shown a rapid decline in demand. From the high sales in 2020 to the policy adjustment period in 2021, and the downturn in 2022-2023, from January to October this year, domestic insurance for commercial vehicles reached 2.32 million units, a 3% decrease year-on-year; in October, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 225,000 units, a 5% decrease year-on-year and a 1% decrease month-on-month from September. The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market this year is relatively stable, with monthly trends similar to those in 2021, with more fluctuations from January to March. Due to abnormal insurance data, there are significant month-on-month fluctuations in data. In October this year, commercial vehicle sales reached 225,000 units, showing a continuous decline in recent months, with demand picking up only slightly after March. The comprehensive inventory increase for the period from January to December 2023 should reach 420,000 units, which is at a historically high level. The remaining inventory of manufacturers' sales-insurance-export from January to October 2024 is 100,000 units, showing a slight decrease. Inventory surged by 41,200 units in June 2024, decreased by 21,100 units in July, decreased by 27,700 units in August, decreased by 38,300 units in September, and decreased by 26,500 units in October, gradually alleviating inventory pressure. 2. Analysis of sales of commercial vehicles from Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation From January to October 2024, sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 435,000 units, an 87% year-on-year increase; in October 2024, it reached 55,000 units, a 64% year-on-year increase, showing a relatively strong performance in the market after continuous subsidies were phased out. In 2023, new energy commercial vehicles showed a low level from January to April due to the withdrawal of subsidies, followed by strong growth from May to December. From January to February 2024, they returned to normal monthly trends, and from March to October, there was a good growth trend after the festival, especially in September and October, where new energy sales continued to reach new highs, showing a good performance. 3. Penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles From January to October 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in the commercial vehicle market reached 19%, showing a good improvement compared to the previous year. In October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 25%, an 11 percentage point increase compared to October last year, showing a relatively strong performance. From 2019 to 2021, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles remained around 3%, reaching 9% in 2022 and 11% in 2023, and reaching a good level of 19% from January to October this year, reflecting a strong growth momentum of new energy commercial vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy in trucks reached 11% in 2024, and in buses it reached 54%, both showing significant increases compared to the same period. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in light trucks and minibusses has increased significantly. 4. Analysis of changes in the commercial vehicle market The structure of trucks and buses in the commercial vehicle market is relatively stable. Light trucks perform well within the truck segment, while heavy trucks continue to show weak trends after a deep adjustment last year, with the effect of the scrappage renewal policy not being prominent. In the bus segment, light buses continue to show strong performance, with electrification leading to the replacement of minibuses by light buses as the market's main force. Medium and large buses remain stable, with the trend of fuel-powered medium and large buses being consistent. 5. Analysis of energy structure in commercial vehicles The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in commercial vehicles is relatively low overall, with plug-in hybrids having little market share and pure electric vehicles performing better. This year, demand for fuel vehicles in large buses has seen a significant rebound, indicating a return to the era after subsidies for fuel vehicles. The sales of hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles are driven by subsidies, with only high subsidies for large buses, but the overall performance of hydrogen-powered vehicles is average. The electrification of commercial vehicles is performing well, with products utilizing extended range technologies being explored but without significant sales yet. 6. Analysis of changes in the competitive structure of commercial vehicles The sales of commercial vehicles are mainly supported by light truck companies, with Foton and Wuling being the main players in the commercial vehicle market, performing strongly in the light truck and bus markets respectively. 7. Analysis of regional market structure for medium and heavy trucks Overall, medium and heavy trucks have a higher market share in the Northwest, Central Yangtze River region, and Southwest markets. New energy heavy trucks have shown good penetration rates in the central Yellow River and Southwest regions, with the penetration rate in the South China region increasing rapidly. The best-performing companies in the domestic medium and heavy truck market should be FAW Jiefang Group, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Dongfeng Motor, etc., with overall performance of heavy trucks relatively stable. Some second-tier manufacturers like Xugong have seen an increase in the penetration rate of electric trucks. 8. Analysis of regional market structure for light trucks The market for light trucks is mainly concentrated in the East-North China and Southwest regions, with the performance of light trucks in the Northwest region gradually improving. The main market for new energy light trucks is still in the East-South China and East China markets, with relatively strong performance, while the municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai are showing signs of recovery. The main manufacturers of domestic light trucksStill, enterprises such as Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM Wuling, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd., Sinotruk Jinan Truck, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation are leading the market. In particular, recently, Wuling, Chang'an, and other small micro-trucks have gradually risen to the market with relatively excellent performance in the small light truck segment.The main companies for new energy light trucks are GEELY AUTO, especially GEELY AUTO has performed extremely well in the new energy light truck sector in the past two years. 9. Regional market structure of light passenger vehicles The sales regions in the domestic light passenger vehicle market are mainly the economically developed regions in East China and South China. The market share in North China and Southwest China is also relatively high. The demand for new energy light passenger vehicles is mainly concentrated in developed regions, with South China showing a strong performance in new energy vehicles. Due to restrictions on license plates, the sales of fuel-powered light passenger vehicles in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai have declined. The main manufacturers of light trucks are SAIC-GM-Wuling, Jiangling Motors Corporation, SAIC Maxus, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Beiqi Foton, and Geely Commercial Vehicle, among others. Emerging forces like Geely Commercial Vehicle and Guizhou Changjiang have shown strong performance in the new energy light truck sector. Recently, Wuling has finally introduced electric light trucks, which are very competitive. 10. Regional market structure of large passenger vehicles The market for large and medium-sized passenger vehicles has shown strong performance recently, with significant fluctuations in market demand between regions. The market for large and medium-sized passenger vehicles in the Eastern region, particularly East China, has been good recently. Overall, the market performance in the Central and Western regions is decent. The regions with a higher penetration rate of new energy large and medium-sized vehicles are mainly East China, Central China along the Yangtze River, South China, and Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, with other regions showing average performance. The main manufacturers of large and medium-sized passenger vehicles are still Yutong, Golden Dragon, and other companies with relatively outstanding performance, especially in traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Companies like Beiqi Foton have also shown relatively good performance. The high penetration rate of new energy large and medium-sized vehicles is mainly in second-tier companies. The performance of Shanghai Sunwin's passenger vehicles in October this year was very good. The main companies are all actively developing new energy vehicles, while their traditional fuel-powered vehicle market remains strong.