Crude oil futures prices stop falling as Trump nominates Secretary of State or imposes stricter sanctions on Iran.
14/11/2024
GMT Eight
Crude oil futures rose slightly on Wednesday, driven by short covering after crude oil futures fell to near two-week lows the day before, but gains were limited as the US dollar reached a seven-month high. After OPEC+ lowered global demand growth expectations, oil prices continued their earlier weakness, extending the previous day's decline.
New York Mercantile Exchange December crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $68.43 per barrel, while Brent crude January futures rose 0.5% to $72.28 per barrel. The December NYMEX natural gas futures contract rose 2.6% to $2.983 per million British thermal units.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said that traders are assessing potential bullish and bearish trends after Trump won the US election. Morgan Stanley said that the implementation of a comprehensive tariff plan might harm global economic growth, thus reducing oil demand, but the maximum pressure on Iran's recovery would hit oil supply, making the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on December 1 a major focus.
The investment bank expects the OPEC+ production agreement to remain basically unchanged, but predicts that by 2025, the market will still have a significant surplus. Morgan Stanley said: "Currently, we estimate that inventory levels are low enough to keep Brent crude at a relatively low spot premium level and support a low of $70 per barrel. However, as inventories increase by 2025, this could lead to a price decline."
The Iranian Oil Minister said the Iranian government has formulated a plan to maintain oil production and exports and is ready to counter any oil restrictions that the US might take.
Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty said that Trump's choice of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State could be favorable for oil as his hawkish stance on Iran might mean stricter enforcement of sanctions, potentially reducing 1.3 million barrels per day from global supply.