Ningde Zeng Yuqun: Musk doesn't understand batteries, "zero carbon" grid will be 10 times bigger than electric car battery business.

Recently, the founder and chairman of battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), Zeng Yuqun, stated in an interview with Reuters that Elon Musk's bet on the 4680 cylindrical battery "will fail, and will never succeed." Currently, Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA.US) autonomous driving technology still faces significant uncertainties in terms of safety. Zeng Yuqun stated, "Musk may think it will take five years, but if you believe him when he says two years, then you're in big trouble." Zeng Yuqun anticipates that Contemporary Amperex Technology's development and management of "zero-carbon" grids could be "ten times bigger" than supplying batteries for electric vehicles. In September, Zeng Yuqun also pointed out the three major challenges facing the European battery manufacturing industry: design, process flow, and equipment shortages. This makes it impossible for Europe and America to produce good batteries. Zeng Yuqun: Musk doesn't know how to make batteries Tesla, Inc. has chosen to rely on cameras and artificial intelligence for its autonomous driving technology in order to reduce costs and achieve high sales volumes. This strategy differs from that of many competitors, who tend to use multiple redundant technologies on autonomous vehicles to ensure higher safety levels, and use them for taxi or delivery services. During the interview, Zeng Yuqun clearly expressed his doubts about Tesla, Inc.'s use of the 4680 cylindrical battery. He believes that Musk's bet on cylindrical batteries (i.e. 4680) "will fail, and will never succeed." He had a heated debate with Musk in Beijing in April. "We had a very intense debate. He fell silent because he doesn't know how to make batteries. This is about electrochemistry, and he excels in chips, software, hardware, and mechanics." The 4680 battery, with its dimensions of 46mm in diameter and 80mm in height, represents Tesla, Inc.'s next generation battery technology. The core highlights of this battery technology include large cells, a full tab design, and dry battery technology aimed at increasing energy density, fast charging advantages, and safety, while reducing battery costs. Zeng Yuqun stated that Contemporary Amperex Technology's goal is to reshape itself as a green energy provider and significantly reduce the cost of developing electric vehicles, thereby disrupting and driving the growth of the automotive industry's economic model. Zeng Yuqun expects that the development and management of the "zero-carbon" grid business could be "ten times bigger" than supplying batteries for electric vehicles. The "zero-carbon" grid system includes CECEP Solar Energy, wind energy, energy storage, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems. In 2023, Contemporary Amperex Technology's power battery system revenue reached 285.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20.57% year-on-year - if Zeng Yuqun can achieve his "ten times" vision, Contemporary Amperex Technology's "zero-carbon grid" business scale could exceed 3 trillion yuan. He stated that Contemporary Amperex Technology's goal is to build large independent energy systems capable of powering a large data center or even a city. Musk's research and development time estimates too aggressive Zeng Yuqun also revealed that Musk often gives unrealistic estimates of development time, such as claiming to achieve a technology within two years that should realistically take five years. "I asked him why, and he told me he wants to push people." Musk recently promised to launch fully autonomous Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by 2025, and plans to release an autonomous "Cybercab" model without a steering wheel and pedals in 2026. Although Tesla, Inc.'s technology roadmap and strategic goals have attracted a lot of investor attention, Musk's consistently "aggressive" promises may make investors skeptical of the realization of these promises. Especially in the context of Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving technology development taking several years and not yet fully mature. Zeng Yuqun stated: "He may think it will take five years, but if you believe him when he says two years, then you're in big trouble." This article is reproduced from "Wall Street View", GMTEight Editor: Chen Xiaoyi.