Guosen: Optimize holidays to effectively increase domestic demand, pay attention to the related travel industry chain and local consumption.
13/11/2024
GMT Eight
Guosen released a research report stating that the extension of the Spring Festival holiday is beneficial for people to make reasonable arrangements for family visits and travel. Referring to the multiple-stage "returning home + tourism" itinerary during the 2024 Spring Festival that prolonged the peak travel period. At the same time, optimizing holidays helps working people to conveniently plan their time off, thereby driving medium and long-distance trips and flexible off-peak travel. Overall, the new holiday plan actively responds to the public's call for optimizing holiday arrangements and reflects the country's focus on boosting domestic consumption, which is expected to positively impact the related travel industry chain and local consumption.
Items:
1. On November 12, 2024, the State Council issued a decision to amend the "National Holiday and Memorial Day Holiday Regulations," increasing the number of days off for all citizens by 2 days starting from 2025, with 1 additional day for the Spring Festival and Labor Day each. It allows for a reasonable arrangement of unified holiday and rest days, combined with the implementation of paid annual leave policies, effectively creating longer holidays. In general, except for certain special circumstances, the statutory holidays before and after the holidays generally do not exceed 6 consecutive working days.
2. The General Office of the State Council issued a notice on the arrangement of certain holidays in 2025, with 1 day off for New Year's Day, 8 days off for the Spring Festival, 2 days off for additional holidays, 3 days off for Qingming Festival and Dragon Boat Festival over the weekends, 5 days off for Labor Day, 1 day off for additional holiday, and 8 days off for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with 2 days off for additional holidays.
Guosen's main points are as follows:
The holiday system in China has been gradually optimized in response to changes in the economic and social environment, with statutory holidays increasing to 13 days starting from 2025.
China has implemented the two-day weekend system since 1995, the "Golden Week" system since 1999, changed May 1 to a short holiday in 2008 while adding short holidays for Qingming, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid-Autumn Festival, increasing the total number of days off from 10 to 11. In 2014, the Spring Festival "Golden Week" was extended from New Year's Eve to the first day of the festival. In addition, holidays are no longer adjusted in the middle of the week on Wednesdays; instead, adjustments are made on Tuesdays and Thursdays. The May 1 holiday was extended from 3 days to 5 days through the adjustment system in 2020. Starting in 2025, the statutory holidays will increase to 13 days, with the addition of New Year's Eve as a day off and reducing the May 1 holiday by 1 day. It is also indicated that, except for certain special circumstances, the statutory holidays generally do not exceed 6 consecutive working days before and after the holidays.
The optimization of holidays landing in the peak season of holiday consumption in 2023 has practical significance for boosting domestic demand.
Due to changes in external environments, family consumption is increasingly focused on parent-child leisure activities, while individuals use holidays for leisure travel to seek mental relaxation. In 2023, the number of travelers during holidays after May 1 exceeded the levels of the same period in 2019, with holiday trips accounting for 33% of the total trips throughout the year, significantly higher than the around 27% in 2019. The trend of "peak season getting peakier" is expected to continue. After 17 years, the extended statutory holidays have practical significance in the current consumption environment and can also be seen as a manifestation of the country's focus on the service industry as a key driver for boosting domestic demand, which helps enhance market expectations for further policies to stimulate domestic demand.
The extended Spring Festival holiday is expected to consolidate the multi-stage travel mode, while the reduction in the May 1 holiday is beneficial for working people to conveniently plan long-distance trips by combining holidays.
In the past, the Spring Festival holiday lasted 7 days, with the possibility of 8 days if New Year's Eve fell on a Friday (like in 2024); starting from 2025, the Spring Festival holiday will be extended to 8 days, with 9 days if New Year's Eve falls on a Friday (like in 2027). The extension of the Spring Festival holiday is beneficial for people to make reasonable arrangements for family visits and travel. Referring to the multiple-stage "returning home + tourism" itinerary during the 2024 Spring Festival that prolonged the peak travel period. At the same time, optimizing holidays helps working people to conveniently plan their time off, thereby driving medium and long-distance trips and flexible off-peak travel.
Investment recommendations:
Taking both certainty and cyclical factors into consideration, it is recommended in the short term to invest in TRIP.COM-S(09961), MEITUAN-W(03690), YUM CHINA(09987), HAIDILAO(06862), Changbai Mountain Tourism(603099.SH), Emei Shan Tourism(000888.SZ), TONGCHENGTRAVEL(00780), HWORLD-S(01179), BTG Hotels(600258.SH), etc.
Risk warning: Systemic risks such as macroeconomic, political, and policy risks, consumer recovery falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, underperformance of major new asset projects, etc.