Gold futures fell to $2600, but analysts still believe there is long-term demand for safe haven assets.
13/11/2024
GMT Eight
The gold futures prices continued to decline, marking the fourth trading day of decrease in the past five trading days, as commodities priced in US dollars continued to be under pressure following Trump's victory. Analysts stated that the rise in US treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar (with the US dollar index reaching a more than four-month high) have dampened investors' interest in non-interest bearing gold.
XS.com analyst Samer Haswon wrote: "As gold prices fall, concerns arise that with Trump returning to the White House, interest rates will rise for a longer period of time and policies that may stimulate inflation and corporate growth will be implemented, reflected in the continuous increase in US treasury yields."
The near-month gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 0.4% to $2600 per ounce, the lowest settlement price since September 19th. However, the near-month silver futures prices rose by 0.5% to $30.686 per ounce, mainly due to silver, as a precious metal with not only safe-haven properties but also a closer connection to economic prospects.
Since the election on November 5th, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has declined by 10%, almost twice the decline of the commodity base, with large mining companies including Newmont Mining (NEM.US) and Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD.US) falling by 9.6% and 9.8% respectively, and mid-cap companies like Hecla Mining (HL.US) and Sandstorm Gold (SAND.US) falling by 13.3% and 14.5% respectively.
However, in the long term, strategists like Bill Peterson from JPMorgan believe that the decline in gold prices is "a setback rather than a major change," even though the decline in gold prices "contradicts our and the market's general expectations." Peterson wrote: "Overall, we remain bullish on gold, considering it as a good hedge tool for the early stages of the new government, and continue to expect gold prices to rise to an average of $2850 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 25 years."
Capital.com analyst Daniela Sabin Hathorn stated that the sentiment towards gold has turned bearish, but investors still have many concerns, pointing out that political and military conflicts as well as weak European consumer demand will support gold prices. Hathorn added that Trump's presidency could further escalate international relations, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.