Sinolink: The US presidential election has limited influence on oil prices, maintaining a bearish outlook on the fundamentals.

Sinolink released a research report stating that, based on supply and demand fundamentals, the medium-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish. The Trump administration has brought both potential bullish and bearish factors, with the potential bullish factors being more uncertain and with a lower probability of occurrence, but once they happen, the impact will be greater. Before the Trump administration takes policies unfavorable to oil supply, it is still recommended to focus on the supply and demand fundamentals, and to assess their impact only after the probability of related events occurring significantly increases. This week's market: On November 8, 2024, the Brent futures price (continuous) was $73.87 per barrel, rising by $0.77 per barrel during the week. The WTI futures price (continuous) closed at $70.38 per barrel, rising by $0.89 per barrel during the week. Supply side: Neutral in the next 1-2 months, leaning bearish for over 3 months. The probability of OPEC+ increasing production from January 2025 remains very high, and delaying the production increase by a month will not reverse the expectation of a significant increase in OPEC+ supply in 2025. Demand side: Bearish in the next 1-2 months, neutral thereafter. Domestic crude oil imports and processing volumes continue to decline year-on-year, leading to passive inventory accumulation and suppressing future domestic crude oil import demand. Stimulus policies in 2025 may stimulate domestic crude oil demand, with a low probability of further decreases based on 2024. Geopolitics: Bearish this week, neutral thereafter. There have been no significant news from the Middle East recently, and there is still room for risk premiums to fall. The future situation in the Middle East may still be turbulent, leading to oil price fluctuations. Natural Gas Gas price outlook: There may be long opportunities in December 2024 and February 2025, with TTF opportunities better than HH, while the rest of the time tends to be neutral. Due to unusually warm temperatures in Europe and the United States in December 2023 and February 2024, there is a greater probability of year-on-year temperature decline in December 2024 and February 2025. An important potential bearish factor for gas prices currently is the possibility of the US restarting production at any time, which may significantly suppress gas prices, especially in the US. The contract for Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe in 2025 has not yet been renewed, so there is a greater chance of gas price increases in Europe compared to the US. This week's market: On November 8, 2024, TTF was $13.25/MMBtu, up $0.89/MMBtu from the previous week. JKM was $14/MMBtu, up $1/MMBtu from the previous week. HH was $2.67/MMBtu, up $0.01/MMBtu from the previous week. Supply side: Bearish in the next 1-2 months, US supply is looser than in Europe. Although US natural gas production briefly decreased this week due to weather conditions, looking at production in the previous 2 months, US producers may restart production at any time, with an incremental capacity of up to 100 million cubic meters per day. For Europe, there is a potential shortfall of around 40 million cubic meters per day in 2025 if Russian pipeline gas flow is cut off. Demand side: Bullish until March 2025. Due to unusually warm temperatures in Europe and the United States in December 2023 and February 2024, there is a greater probability of year-on-year temperature decline in December 2024 and February 2025. Coal This week's market: On November 8, 2024, the closing price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 847 yuan per ton, down by 1 yuan per ton from the previous week. Supply side: In September 2024, national raw coal production was 414 million tons, an increase of 4.40% year-on-year. Demand side: In the week ending October 31, 2024, the daily consumption of coal at key power plants was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 6.48% year-on-year.