Index Research Institute: Expectations for the real estate market and confidence among home buyers have shown signs of recovery. Real estate market activity significantly rebounded in October.

The China Index Institute issued a document stating that under the promotion of a package of policies, the real estate market expectations and buyers' confidence have been restored, and the real estate market activity significantly rebounded in October. In the short term, considering the lag in transaction data, it is expected that the transaction activity will continue into the first half of November. Currently, the volume and price in core cities have shown initial signs of stabilizing after the decline. If further supportive policies are introduced and the previous policy effects are consolidated, core cities may achieve stabilization after the decline. In October, various ministries of the central government continued to introduce policies to promote the "stabilization and recovery" of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed "comprehensive policy measures to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market due to continued weakness in the property market"; the Ministry of Finance proposed special bond support for the recovery of unused land and existing inventory properties; the Ministry of Housing and Construction and four other ministries introduced a policy "combination punch" to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, proposing "four cancellations, four reductions, two increases". At the same time, the central bank's interest rate cut was implemented, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs being cut by 25 basis points. Since the end of September, with the support of the "package" policies, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in key cities in October has significantly increased, and prices have also shown signs of stabilization. In October, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities narrowed Data source: China Real Estate Index System CREIS Market monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ According to the China Real Estate Index System's price index for one hundred cities, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand housing in one hundred cities decreased month-on-month by 0.60%, a narrowing of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%. In October, the average price of second-hand housing in the top ten cities fell by 0.33% month-on-month, a narrowing of 0.47 percentage points from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%. Specifically, except for Hangzhou, where the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices was basically flat compared to the previous month, the rest of the top ten cities saw a narrowing of the decline. Shanghai and Shenzhen saw significant narrowing, both exceeding 0.7 percentage points, Beijing, Wuhan, and Chongqing decreased by 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points, and Guangzhou and Tianjin by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points. Beijing: The number of second-hand housing transactions reached a new high since April last year, and the month-on-month price decline narrowed significantly Data source: China Real Estate Index System CREIS Market monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ In terms of transactions, in October, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions reached 17,367 units, a month-on-month increase of 30.8%, a year-on-year increase of 63.0%, reaching a new high since April last year; the cumulative transactions in January-October increased by 4.2% compared to the same period last year. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing decreased by 0.29% month-on-month, a narrowing of 0.64 percentage points from the previous month. Since the end of September, with favorable policies in the property market frequently introduced, market confidence has been restored, the willingness of buyers to buy homes has significantly improved, and the property market has shown strong performance in October. Shanghai: Second-hand housing transactions exceeded 20,000 units, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth Data source: China Real Estate Index System CREIS Market monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ In terms of transactions, under the push of the "Shanghai Seven Regulations" in September, in October, Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions reached 21,779 units, a month-on-month increase of 56.2%, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, and a cumulative transaction volume in January-October increased by 10.0% compared to the same period last year. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand housing in Shanghai decreased by 0.10% month-on-month, a narrowing of 0.70 percentage points from the previous month. Guangzhou: New policies boost market confidence recovery, and the month-on-month price decline continues to narrow Data source: China Real Estate Index System CREIS Market monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ In October, the price of second-hand housing in Guangzhou decreased by 0.26% month-on-month, a narrowing of 0.28 percentage points from the previous month. At the end of September, Guangzhou comprehensively canceled the housing purchase restriction policy, making it the first-tier city with the largest support in this round of policy. Driven by the new policy, the market activity of second-hand housing in Guangzhou significantly increased in October, and the price decline of second-hand housing continued to narrow. With the continuous restoration of market confidence, it is expected that the heat of the second-hand housing market in Guangzhou will continue in November.S (Click to View)Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ Shenzhen: The number of second-hand housing transactions doubled year-on-year, reaching a new high since April 2021 Chart: Comparison of the number of second-hand residential transactions and the price trend month-on-month in Shenzhen from July 2020 to October 2024 Data source: CRIS Center for Real Estate Information System (click to view) Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ In October, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen was 6,118, an increase of 91.7% month-on-month and 120.5% year-on-year, reaching a new high since April 2021; the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 50.6%. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen fell by 0.05% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.78 percentage points from the previous month. Since the implementation of the "9.29" new policy, the market has continued to heat up, with a substantial increase in the number of second-hand housing transactions and a continuous recovery in market confidence. It is expected that the new policy will continue to be effective in the short term, and the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is expected to remain active in November. Chart: Average listing prices and year-on-year comparison of second-hand residential properties in various districts of Shenzhen in October 2024 Data source: CRIS Center for Real Estate Information System (click to view) Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/ Table: Typical new housing projects in Shenzhen in October 2024 Data source: CRIS Center for Real Estate Information System (click to view) Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/