US Treasury bond short positions continue to rise, October CPI data in the United States becomes a focus of attention.

Traders are heavily betting on further sell-offs in the US bond market, as they anticipate that policies promised by Trump will bring back inflation and keep federal fund rates at high levels. Data released on Tuesday showed that open interest contracts for two-year US bond futures rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, indicating traders are building bearish positions before the release of inflation data for October on Wednesday. As bearish bets expand, US bonds are facing sell-offs. On Tuesday, US bond yields rose by more than 10 basis points across the board, with the two-year and five-year bond yields rebounding to their highest levels since July. Citigroup strategist David Bieber said, "We see investors chasing price action. This is a market positioning itself properly for the election results. However, there is generally insufficient investment in bearish positions in the US bond market." As bond investors and Federal Reserve watchers assess the direction of US interest rates, inflation has once again become a focal point of their attention. The market expects a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in US CPI for October, higher than the 2.4% increase in September; core CPI is expected to increase by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with September and continuing its sticky performance. The uncertainty of future US policy directions and recent inconsistent economic data have led to significant divergence in market expectations for the December Federal Reserve decision. Traders currently expect a slightly higher than 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated on Tuesday that he will focus on the upcoming inflation data to determine whether a rate cut in December is appropriate. He noted that given that housing inflation is above average, it may take one to two years for inflation to reach its target. However, he added that the cooling of housing prices is "encouraging." Scott Johnson, Deputy Director of Global Models at Bloomberg Economics, suggested that Wednesday's release of US CPI data could weaken expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed, and higher-than-expected inflation data could push up forecasts for the two-year US bond yield by 2025.