OPEC has become a "bears of the oil market"! Decreased oil demand expectations for four consecutive months.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on Tuesday a downward revision of the global oil demand growth rate for 2024, as well as a decrease in the organization's expectations for global crude oil demand next year, with a particular emphasis on the weakening demand from China, India, and other key regions. This latest downward revision by OPEC marks the fourth consecutive time the organization has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth rates for this year and next. With OPEC's continuous downward revisions of overall oil demand expectations, including both crude oil and various oil products processed from crude oil, OPEC has completely abandoned the bullish forecast it has held for global oil demand since earlier this year. The dim outlook for global oil demand highlights the challenges facing the "OPEC+" group of oil-producing countries, which includes all members of OPEC plus important oil-producing countries such as Russia. Earlier this month, amid a backdrop of continuous sharp drops in international benchmark oil prices for Brent crude futures, OPEC+ postponed its plans to increase oil production starting from December, as market expectations suggested. In the oil demand monthly report released on Tuesday, OPEC stated that it expects global oil demand to increase by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, lower than the 1.93 million barrels per day growth rate predicted last month. The organization also adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth rates in 2025 from 1.64 million barrels per day to 1.54 million barrels per day. It is worth noting that since July 2023 when the forecast for global oil demand growth rates in 2024 was first formulated, OPEC had maintained its expectations unchanged until August when it started lowering growth rate forecasts in its monthly reports, resulting in four consecutive downward revisions by the time the November report was released. Due to significant easing of tension in the Middle East, signs of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil supply, and recent significant downward revisions in oil demand expectations by OPEC and the IEA, Brent crude futures prices have fallen by over 18% since July. Prices have recently hovered near their lows for the year, indicating that even with the Fed's announcement of an interest rate cut cycle, market funds remain pessimistic about global oil demand growth for the remainder of this year and next year. In October, the International Energy Agency (IEA), another authoritative organization in the energy sector, released a more pessimistic demand forecast report than OPEC. The IEA predicted a significant "supply surplus" situation in the global oil market in the new year of 2025. "Currently, international oil supply continues to flow, and without major supply interruptions, the market will face a significant supply surplus in the new year." Furthermore, the IEA further lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year in its report, attributing the core reasoning to a potential softening of demand in major oil-consuming countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea. The IEA will release its latest oil demand forecast data on Thursday. These large organizations, representing the most authoritative views in the oil market, have all abandoned their strong bullish forecasts for oil demand that they have held since earlier this year, finally realizing that global fuel consumption is sharply decelerating and are leaning towards acknowledging the recent dominant Wall Street pessimistic expectation of an oil "supply surplus". In its latest monthly report, OPEC stated that the main reason for the downgrade in 2024 was a significant downward revision in the organization's oil demand expectations for China. OPEC lowered its growth forecast for China from 580,000 barrels per day to 450,000 barrels per day and stated that diesel consumption in September showed a year-on-year decline for seven consecutive months. "Due to continued weakness in manufacturing activities, combined with the ongoing deployment of fuel trucks powered by liquefied natural gas, diesel demand has been under pressure due to the slowdown in the construction industry," OPEC stated in reference to China's market demand. Following the release of this downward revision in oil demand in OPEC's monthly report, the rise in Brent crude futures prices significantly narrowed, with prices currently below $73 per barrel. Unlike major Wall Street banks as well as OPEC and the IEA, there is a significant divergence in energy consulting firms' forecasts for the intensity of oil demand growth in 2024, partly due to the huge differences in their expectations for Chinese demand and the pace of the world's transition to clean fuels. Research reports recently released by major Wall Street banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both indicate that as early as the end of 2024 or early 2025, the entire oil market may shift from a slightly tense supply-demand balance to a potential trend of oversupply. Goldman Sachs even predicts that Brent crude trading prices may fall to a stage low of $61 per barrel.