Be alert to profit taking pressure! US stocks at historic highs may face a pullback.
Citigroup indicates that bullish positions on the S&P 500 index reached a three-year high last week, profit-taking may limit stock market investment returns in the short term.
The strategy team of Wall Street's Citigroup Inc recently released a report stating that as investors begin to take profits, the massive selling pressure brought about by this intense selling may force the US stock market to temporarily lose momentum in the epic rally following the US presidential election.
Led by Chris Montalta, the Citigroup strategy team stated that investors in the US stock market increased their bullish bets last week, pushing the bullish exposure on the S&P 500 index to the highest level in three years. Historical levels of long positions in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index and the US small-cap benchmark index, the Russell 2000 index, also reflect an "extremely bullish investor sentiment."
"The profits of the S&P and Russell indexes have increased, which may lead to profit-taking in the near term, limiting further gains," wrote Montalta's Citigroup strategy team in a report released on November 11th.
As of Monday's stock market close, the major benchmark index of the US stock market, the S&P 500 index, hit a new all-time high. The main rationale behind this was that investors in the US stock market optimistically believed that the "America First" and "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) policy tones led by President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to return to the White House, would long-term boost liquidity and fundamental expectations throughout the entire US stock market. The so-called "Trump trade" also boosted the long-term underperforming small-cap stocks in the US stock market, whose fundamentals may be strongly boosted by his administration's US trade protectionism stance.
The S&P 500 index rose 2.5% to 5929.04 points as of last Wednesday's close, marking the best post-presidential election day performance in history. As of Monday's close, the S&P 500 index stood firmly at the 6000 point mark, reaching a historical high of 6017.31 points during trading before closing at 6001.35 points.
However, Wall Street's major banks generally hold a strong bullish attitude towards the US stock market until the end of 2024 and into the mid-term of 2025. Many analysts on Wall Street continue to be bullish on the US stock market, with some even predicting it could reach as high as 6600 points. Following the announcement of the US presidential election results, Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that the S&P 500 index would reach 6300 points within 12 months. This Wall Street financial giant's view on the US stock market has not changed with Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States, and it is expected that strong profit growth will support market gains until 2025.
Another Wall Street investment firm, Evercore ISI, even gave a more optimistic prediction, stating that by the mid-term of 2025 (June next year), the S&P 500 index would rise to 6600 points, saying: "Trump decisively and undisputedly elected as US President, and the Republicans may win big in both houses of Congress, this is not anyone's basic forecast." Evercore ISI also stated that the prospect of deregulation supports the US stock market, saying, "We believe prosperity is right ahead; President-Elect Trump will quickly take positive economic growth policy measures, and the stock market will also rise quickly."
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