Cui Dongshu: Terminal sales of the car market in October showed a strong sales trend, with new energy vehicles making a significant contribution to the increase in consumption.

On November 12, Cui Dongshu released an analysis of the trends and competition performance of the automotive sub-segment market in October. Recently, the government has arranged 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special national bond funds to strongly support the trade-in of old products for new ones, increase the subsidy standard for scrappage and renewal of automobiles. The intensity of such policies is historically rare and has had a good impact on boosting the fourth quarter. Currently, various provinces and cities have successively implemented and implemented policies for automobile replacement subsidies, and have launched certain car purchase and consumption promotion policies based on the funds allocated by the state. The subsidy amount for single vehicles in some regions is considerable. During the "National Day" holiday in October, the heat of the passenger car market has significantly increased. Although there has been a slight decline after the holiday, the overall automotive market continues to maintain a positive trend of recovery. The effects of local trade-in policies on the market are gradually emerging, and the scrappage renewal policy continues to be stable and strong, resulting in a significant boost to the growth of the automotive market. The terminal sales volume in October showed a trend of strong sales, with significant contribution to consumption increase from new energy vehicles. 1. Differentiation of trends in the automotive passenger and commercial markets in 2024 In recent years, the differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles has been obvious. This year, the market has been influenced by policies and the Chinese New Year. Passenger car sales from January to October have shown relatively good growth. The commercial vehicle market only began to recover after the Chinese New Year, and the trend from January to October was relatively weak. 2. Strong start for the automotive market in 2024 From January to October 2024, the cumulative total sales of automobiles reached 24.62 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.9%. In October, the total sales of automobiles reached 3.0506 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a month-on-month increase of 8.4%. The automotive market in 2023 started slow and ended strong, with obvious signs of overdrawing towards the end. Sales in February this year showed a significant decline, but the rebound in October was significant, with the market slowly recovering from the impact of price wars. The cumula...Trend in production and sales of Tung-Drive passenger vehicle enterprisesIn 2023, the sales of traditional narrow passenger cars were 16.66 million units, which remained basically stable compared to the same period in 2022. From January to October 2024, the sales of traditional narrow passenger cars were 11.89 million units, a decrease of 12% compared to the same period last year, with a 13% year-on-year decrease in October. The largest decline was in the third quarter, with improvement in October. The continuous decline in conventional passenger cars in the previous period brought significant market pressure. Recently, the trend of traditional cars has shown signs of recovery, but the price impact of the sharp decline in new energy vehicles will continue to be reflected. It is hoped that traditional cars can also stabilize and resume growth. The dominance of joint venture enterprises in conventional power passenger cars is gradually changing, with Chery, Geely, and the top three joint ventures still relatively strong in the market. FAW Volkswagen is the absolute leader in joint ventures, while the advantages of independent brands in traditional fuel vehicles are not obvious, and the technical reserves of joint venture enterprises in fuel vehicles are still strong. 7. Trends in commercial vehicle production and sales The overall trend in the commercial vehicle market is relatively low, with a 30% year-on-year decrease in 2022, showing an extremely low growth rate for several years. In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of commercial vehicles (broadly defined) reached 4.2977 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18.6%. From January to October 2024, the total sales of commercial vehicles (broadly defined) reached 3.3953 million units, a cumulative decrease of 3%. In October, the total sales of commercial vehicles (broadly defined) were 323,900 units, a 17.2% year-on-year decrease, and a 6.1% increase from the previous month. The start of 2024 was mainly driven by strong sales in January, followed by stable performance from March to June, with weak growth for commercial vehicles from July to October. The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are Beiqi Foton, Dongfeng Motor, Chongqing Changan Automobile, SAIC-GM Wuling, and Sinotruk Jinan Truck, with Changan and FAW showing relatively strong performance, while Jiangling's performance is relatively stable. 8. Trends in micro and mini vehicles In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of micro and mini vehicles reached 882,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.3%. From January to October 2024, the total sales of micro and mini vehicles were 577,800 units, a cumulative decrease of 18.7%. In October, the total sales of micro and mini vehicles were 44,400 units, a 53% year-on-year decrease and a 10.8% increase from the previous month. From January to October 2024, the total sales of micro vans were 204,800 units, with a cumulative decrease of 4.4%. In October, the total sales of micro vans were 25,900 units, a 1.8% year-on-year decrease and a 20.6% increase from the previous month. From January to October 2024, the total sales of micro trucks were 373,000 units, with a cumulative decrease of 24.9%. In October, the total sales of micro trucks were 18,500 units, a 72.8% year-on-year decrease and a 0.5% decrease from the previous month. In 2023, SAIC-GM Wuling showed a relatively strong trend, especially in the months of August to December, with a strong performance in 2024, followed by a strong performance from March to May. In October 2024, most manufacturers saw a rebound in sales compared to the previous month, with SAIC-GM Wuling performance showing an improvement since September, but mainly in the electrification of passenger vehicles. 9. Trends in light trucks In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of trucks reached 2.9273 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.8%. From January to October 2024, the total sales of trucks were 2.4125 million units, a cumulative decrease of 0.3%. In October, the total sales of trucks were 236,400 units, a 7% year-on-year decrease, and a 5.8% increase from the previous month. From January to October 2024, the total sales of light trucks were 1.5559 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 0.9%. In October, the total sales of light trucks were 161,300 units, a 1.6% year-on-year decrease, and a 2.5% increase from the previous month. The previous high growth in truck sales was mainly due to the elimination of China III diesel trucks, with significant replacement purchases due to strong measures to eliminate China III vehicles in various regions. With a new round of trade-ins, there is still potential for market growth. In 2024, the trends of the main light truck manufacturers are more differentiated, with GEELY AUTO showing a sharp increase compared to October of the previous year. Chongqing Changan Automobile and Xinyuan Auto have upgraded from strong micro truck companies to strong light truck companies. 10. Trends in medium and heavy trucks In 2019, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 1.3136 million units, with a cumulative decrease of 0.9%. In 2020, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 1.778 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 35%. In 2021, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 1.572 million units, with a cumulative decrease of 12%. In 2022, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 767,500 units, with a cumulative decrease of 51%. In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of medium and heavy trucks reached 1.0181 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 32.7%. From January to October 2024, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 856,700 units, a cumulative decrease of 2.6%. In October, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks were 75,100 units, a 16.7% year-on-year decrease, and a 13.7% increase from the previous month. The previous high growth in heavy truck sales was mainly driven by e-commerce logistics driving the growth of road transportation demand, along with rapid growth in financial loans. Under the influence of the epidemic, residents' consumption, the trend of e-commerce, and the further strengthened logistics transportation, as well as the comprehensive factors of scrapping and renewing China III vehicles and investment-driven demand. Due to the excessive penetration of automobile finance, problems have gradually emerged, and there is considerable consumption pressure in the car market. In 2024, the main trends are more differentiated, with FAW and Dongfeng heavy trucks in a post-Chinese New Year adjustment period. This year, FAW and Shaanqi had a strong start, but the leading heavy truck manufacturers such as FAW and Dongfeng still need to further strengthen product competition and market development, while second-tier heavy truck manufacturers still face significant gaps compared to the main players. 11. Trends in light buses In 2023, the total manufacturer sales of buses reached 488,100 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19.6%. From January to October 2024, the total sales of buses reached 405,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.1%. In October, the total sales of buses were 43,100 units, a 1.5% year-on-year increase, and a 3.3% increase from the previous month.From January to October in the 24th year, the cumulative sales of light commercial vehicles were 316,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 0.6%; in October, the sales of light commercial vehicles were 32,400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and an increase of 2.2% from the previous month.October's leading light commercial vehicle is Jiangling, and other light commercial vehicle companies have also performed relatively well compared to previous months. In the recent light commercial vehicle market, second-tier manufacturers are rising. In the past two years, Chang'an has shown a strong trend, followed by SAIC Maxus and Jiangling. SAIC Maxus has performed very well in exports. Sales trends of medium and large-sized bus companies: In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of medium and large-sized buses by manufacturers was 91,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.9%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales volume of medium and large-sized buses was 88,300 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 25.4%. In October, the sales volume of medium and large-sized buses was 10,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 57% and a month-on-month increase of 6.9%. In the past two years, medium and large-sized buses have shown strong performance, with high year-on-year growth mainly due to the subsidy competition for new energy buses, which is also driven by local government initiatives. With the subsidies tapering off in recent years, the decline in medium and large-sized buses has been significant. However, local governments are currently facing financial constraints, and although the performance of public transportation models in 2024 has increased, it is still mediocre. In 2024, the large bus market continues to rely on chaos dominated by new energy buses, with the clear overdraft of buses as policies are withdrawn. The medium and large-sized bus market in 2024 continues to fluctuate at low levels.