Guolian: GEELY AUTO's (00175) new car plan is progressing smoothly, given a "buy" rating.

Guolian released a research report stating that, given GEELY AUTO (00175) has obvious growth advantages and leading advantages in the product cycle of its vehicle models, it has been given a "buy" rating. Benefiting from a good new car cycle, GEELY AUTO is expected to see a double increase in sales volume and market share. The bank predicts that the company's total sales volume (including Geely and Lynk & Co) for 2024-2026 will be 2.143 / 2.782 / 3.280 million vehicles, with operating income of 239.03 / 325.52 / 395.69 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.41 / 12.74 / 16.47 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.63 / 1.26 / 1.64 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 45.8%. The main points of Guolian are as follows: Galaxy E5 and Xingyuan debut, expanding the Galaxy brand's market coverage In August and October 2024, Galaxy E5 and Xingyuan were launched, targeting the A-level SUV and A0-level sedan markets, with prices ranging from 109,800 to 145,800 yuan and 69,800 to 98,800 yuan, respectively, widening the brand's price range. Galaxy E5, with its product strength, achieved sales of 12,230 units in its first month on the market. Xingyuan, also with the potential for a popular model, is expected to lead the sales in its specific market segment. The bank predicts that by the end of 2024, the Galaxy brand will launch the Starship 7, targeting the B-level SUV hybrid market, further completing the vehicle model matrix and driving brand sales growth. Galaxy is expected to achieve sales of 296,000 / 760,000 units in 2024/2025, representing growth of 254.3% / 156.9%. Jikexie 7X and Jikexie MIX debut, accelerating the expansion of the vehicle model matrix Starting in 2023, the Jikexie brand's new car release schedule has accelerated, with the 009 / Jikexie X / Jikexie 007 successively launched, increasing sales from 72,000 units in 2022 to 119,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 65.0%. In 2024, Jikexie is expected to release Jikexie 7X and Jikexie MIX, targeting the B-level SUV and B-level MPV markets, with Jikexie 7X priced at 229,900 to 269,900 yuan, which has a competitive advantage compared to similar models like Model Y and BYD Company Limited Tang. In 2025, new vehicles such as off-roaders, C\D-level SUVs are still numerous, and the energy form may expand to the plug-in hybrid market. Jikexie is expected to achieve sales of 217,000 / 445,000 units in 2024/2025, with growth of 82.8% / 105.1% respectively. Lynk & Co's new energy transformation is on track, pure electric models are expected to expand the market In 2023, Lynk & Co launched its first native new energy architecture CMA-Evo platform, officially starting its new energy transformation. Based on the CMA-Evo platform, Lynk & Co released the Lynk & Co 08 and Lynk & Co 07 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, helping to increase sales of Lynk & Co new energy vehicles. From January to August 2024, Lynk & Co's new energy sales reached 96,000 units, up 449.6% year-on-year, accounting for 56.7%. In September 2024, Lynk & Co Z10 was launched, targeting the C-level pure electric sedan market, and in October, Lynk & Co Z20 debuted in Europe, targeting the A-level pure electric SUV market, and is expected to become a key model for GEELY AUTO to open up the global market. Lynk & Co's new energy vehicles are expected to achieve sales of 167,000 / 287,000 units in 2024/2025, with growth of 158.6% / 72.2% respectively.