Fangzheng Securities: The inflection point of 25-year movie content supply is coming, and box office is expected to warm up.

Fangzheng Securities released a research report stating that due to the shortage of high-quality movies, the box office for the year 2024 is expected to have a low base, leading to increased market attention on the 2025 movie market and strong expectations for a turnaround in movie supply and a return to growth in box office for 2025. According to calculations, if the number of moviegoers in 2025 decreases by 10% compared to 2023, and the average ticket price remains the same as in 2023, then the box office for 2025 is expected to return to nearly 50 billion yuan, with a potential increase of about 20% compared to 2024. In terms of investment, in the short term, it is recommended to focus on targets catalyzed by strong expectations for movie release schedules; in the medium term, focus on targets that benefit from rich content reserves and a rebound in annual box office sales, including Wanda Film Holding, Hengdian Entertainment, Shanghai Film, Bona Film Group, Beijing Enlight Media, MAOYAN ENT, ALI PICTURES, Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation, and Omnijoi Media Corporation. Risks include fewer high-quality domestic movies than expected, declining audience willingness and demand for movies, and stricter regulations on movie-related inspections and supervision in China.