Wall Street veteran: "Animal spirit" will help propel the S&P 500 index to 10,000 points by 2030.
12/11/2024
GMT Eight
Wall Street veteran and President of Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni, stated that the "animal spirit" released by President-elect Trump's economic policies will drive the S&P 500 index to 10,000 by the end of this decade. This prediction implies a 66% surge in the S&P 500 index by 2030.
In a client report on Monday, Ed Yardeni said that he expects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,100 by the end of 2024, 7,000 by the end of 2025, 8,000 by the end of 2026, and 10,000 by the end of 2030.
Yardeni said, "We are just seeing a more business-friendly government taking office, which will undoubtedly bring tax cuts. Not only for companies, but also for individuals, various tax reduction schemes have been discussed. In addition, there are many measures to relax regulations." He also stated that the market is showing early signs of the "animal spirit" starting to take effect.
Yardeni's above prediction is based on the belief that Trump's economic agenda, especially cutting corporate tax rates, will bring greater profits to American companies. He stated that if conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and conflicts in the Middle East are resolved, the stock market is expected to further rise.
However, Yardeni added, "While we do not expect another bear market by the end of this decade, there will undoubtedly be some adjustments along the way." He expressed concerns about overly optimistic sentiment, but even so, consumer and business optimism are likely to improve, following the pattern when Trump was elected in 2016, the "animal spirit" returned.
Another optimist about the future of the US stock market is Julian Emanuel, an analyst at the independent investment bank Evercore ISI. The analyst believes that the bull market in US stocks is still in its early stages, and during Trump's upcoming presidency, the stock market will accelerate.
Julian Emanuel stated that the S&P 500 index will reach 6,600 by the end of June next year, as measures taken by Trump to relax institutional regulations may help boost company profits. He pointed out that data shows bull markets on average rise by 152% over 50 months, while the current market has only risen by 65% in the past 25 months, indicating the bull market is "still in its infancy." Additionally, Evercore's strategy team analyzed data and found that a one-party sweep government is actually most beneficial to US stocks.