CINNO Research: The domestic consumer television market is showing a positive trend in the short term. It is expected that most panel prices will stabilize after a period of decline.

CINNO Research chief analyst Zhou Hua stated that the "trade-in for new" subsidy combined with the "Double Eleven" platform discounts have stimulated the domestic consumer TV market in the short term. Although panel factories reduced production capacity in October, the supply remains relatively tight, leading to a narrowing of LCD TV panel price declines and a stabilization of prices for some medium and small-sized panels. As the foreign traditional holidays approach in November, short-term demand is expected to remain strong, with most panel prices stabilizing or even increasing. CINNO Research believes that as we enter October and November, the stocking period for terminal brand customers has largely ended. The "Double Eleven" promotion is in full swing, with most e-commerce platforms experiencing excellent sales in the first half of the promotion. Additionally, promotions during the traditional foreign holidays in the fourth quarter are expected to drive short-term growth in overseas market demand. The national "trade-in for new" subsidy policy is starting to show results, with retail sales of energy-efficient home appliances achieving double-digit growth year-on-year, further boosting confidence in the domestic TV market. The short-term increase in market demand has led to a continuing narrowing of price declines for LCD TV panels in October, with prices for medium and small-sized panels stabilizing first. Due to better-than-expected orders, major panel factories have reduced production control measures to cope with demand. On the supply side of panels, according to CINNO Research data, the average capacity utilization rate of domestic LCD high-generation lines in October 2024 is expected to decrease to around 72%. The average capacity utilization rates for G8.5 and G10.5/11 high-generation production lines have decreased the most, by about 13 percentage points from the previous month, while the G8.6 high-generation line has decreased by about 2 percentage points. This is mainly due to a surge in orders in September, leading to major panel factories shortening their planned two-week production control shutdown in early October to one week, focusing control efforts on domestic leading panel factories' G8.5 and G10.5/11 high-generation lines. Considering that the fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for foreign holidays, and with market demand continuing to rise due to domestic subsidy policies and events like "Double Twelve," the average utilization rate of high-generation lines is expected to slightly increase in November. In terms of demand, central banks in the US, China, Europe, and elsewhere have successively cut interest rates in September and October, further stimulating consumer spending and boosting market confidence. The global macroeconomic outlook is more optimistic compared to the same period last year. With the end of October approaching, the combination of promotions during the "Double Eleven" sales event and the effectiveness of the national "trade-in for new" subsidy policy has led to a resurgence in consumer demand. The effects of the trade-in policy are evident, with data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing a 3.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods in September, with a 20.5% increase in sales of energy-efficient home appliances. This may help drive the renewal and upgrade of products from top-tier brands in the TV market, increasing the market share of high-end products. In addition, following the "Double Eleven" event, traditional foreign holidays like "Black Friday," Thanksgiving, and Christmas will continue to stimulate periodic demand growth, supporting the stability and rebound of LCD TV panel prices in the fourth quarter. CINNO Research states that in this year's "Double Eleven" event, major brands have adopted different promotion strategies to compete in the market. For example, TCL is focusing on the Mini LED TV market, with a flagship series product seeing a price drop of 3,000 yuan; Hisense is promoting large-sized, high-performance, and cost-effective products, with some 85" TVs priced as low as around 4,000 yuan. From the sales strategies of these two major brands, it can be seen that low-price promotions are more effective in stimulating consumer purchasing desire and driving the recovery of the TV market. In addition, large-sized TVs and technologically innovative products are becoming increasingly mainstream and focused in the TV market. In November 2024, as the demand cycle for the TV market rebounds, CINNO Research predicts that aside from 85" panels, prices for most other panel sizes will stabilize. Due to relatively loose supply of 85" panels compared to other sizes, prices are expected to continue to decrease by 2 to 301 US dollars this month, with prices for this size possibly bottoming out by the end of the year.