Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Trump's victory is short for oil prices. Aviation sector benefits from falling oil prices (attached concept stocks)

Trump will win the U.S. election, the dollar will soar, and oil prices will fall in early European trading. The strong dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, usually reducing demand. Dutch international analysts said in a statement, "In the medium to long term, due to trade and foreign policy reasons, a Trump victory may be more unfavorable for oil." Oil prices are also being pressured by signals of weak U.S. demand, with data from the American Petroleum Institute showing that U.S. crude inventories increased more than expected. Hedge funds BlueBay and Phoenix turned their attention to crude oil, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. banking sector on Wednesday. Trump's support for the oil industry, including loosening environmental regulations, could lead to a fall in oil prices. "Trump's policies could increase U.S. supply," said Sam Berridge, portfolio manager for Strategic Natural Resources Fund in Perth, Australia. The fund is part of Perennial Value Management, with assets of 7 billion Australian dollars. Citi predicted on Wednesday that a second term for President Trump could put downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude prices expected to average $60 per barrel until 2025, mainly due to potential trade tariffs and increased oil supply. Citi pointed out that Trump's impact could prompt OPEC+ to accelerate production cuts, while possibly easing geopolitical tensions and releasing some offshore oil back into the market. Citi said Trump could provide potential tax incentives through investments in oil exploration and production, and reverse measures such as increasing royalties on the Biden government to support the oil industry. The ex-factory price of domestic aviation kerosene in October fell to 5,637 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 13.3% from the average ex-factory price of aviation kerosene in the first three quarters of 2024. According to the 2024 half-year report of Air China Limited, a 5% increase/decrease in average fuel prices in the first half of 2024 will lead to an increase/decrease of 1.357 billion yuan in fuel costs for the company. Institutions point out that aviation, as a typical pro-cyclical commodity, market style, and external variables such as oil prices and exchange rates may catalyze the sector's stock price. At the same time, the slowing trend in industry supply growth is expected to continue, and we believe that the improvement in supply and demand in civil aviation will be further realized. Civil aviation related companies include: Air China Limited (00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (01055), etc.