The US stock market "exploded" overnight, with Wall Street all bullish. The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6600 points next year.

date
07/11/2024
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GMT Eight
On Wednesday, after Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, U.S. stock markets surged significantly, with all three major indexes hitting historic highs. Looking ahead, many Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks, with some even predicting a high of 6600 points. Following the announcement of the U.S. election results, Goldman Sachs reiterated its prediction that the S&P 500 index would reach 6300 points within the next 12 months. The bank's view on U.S. stocks has not changed with Trump's election as the 47th President of the United States, expecting strong profit growth to support market gains by 2025. Goldman Sachs has maintained its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 index, setting the target at 6300 points. The bank stated that strong profit performance will support this growth, and predicted that the market will continue to rise until 2025. Goldman's optimistic view is supported by a forecast of an 11% increase in earnings per share next year. Goldman also mentioned the potential surge after the election, emphasizing that lower political uncertainty will have a beneficial impact on the market, similar to past presidential election years. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, said: "Reduced political uncertainty will be a key driver for the stock market in the near term, which typically leads to strong year-end returns in election years. With the resolution of election uncertainty, recent economic growth data and the Fed's ongoing rate cuts, support the healthy short-term prospects of the U.S. stock market. We believe that investors and corporate executives will now focus on four questions related to the U.S. stock market: (1) post-election performance of the S&P 500 index; (2) positions of stock investors; (3) market rotations, including those related to trade and tax policies; (4) prospects for mergers and IPO activities." Goldman observed that historically, the S&P 500 index has returned around 4% between the election day in November and the end of the year. If this trend continues, by the end of 2024, the index could reach nearly 6015 points, equivalent to a forward P/E ratio of 22 times. Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise, Anthony Saglimbene, expressed a similar view, stating that corporate fundamentals are strong and profits are expected to grow in the coming quarters, with the stock prices reflecting a healthy environment. The strategist added: "Stocks have maintained very healthy gains so far this year, and all 11 industries are expected to achieve profit growth by 2025. Over time, normalized inflation levels should continue to ease the pressure on consumers and businesses. It is worth noting that lower rates may help increase support for lending activities, commercial investments, and improve affordability for high-priced consumer goods such as homes and cars. The U.S. is in growth mode, with consumers and businesses spending. Therefore, the growth trend in the U.S. remains enviable." Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, stated in a report: "The market hates uncertainty, and now that the election is officially over, the stock market is surging today. Optimism about tax cuts, continued dovish stance by the Fed, and possibly better economic conditions are part of the reason, but the reality is, the economy has been fairly robust all year, so it's not really new. Our view is that U.S. stocks will return to a regular bull market." Yung-Yu Ma, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Wealth Management, said: "Favorable macro drivers still dominate, with the prospect of a Republican sweep and tax cuts increasing market enthusiasm. In the coming weeks, more details on tariff policies or persistent rise in long-term U.S. bond yields may temper this sentiment, but we have been saying for the past two years that the environment is favorable for risk-taking, and it continues to be so now." Evercore ISI even provided a more optimistic forecast, stating that by mid-2025, the S&P 500 index will rise to 6600 points, and that Trump's "decisive and uncontested" election as the U.S. president, along with the potential for a Republican landslide, is "not anyone's baseline prediction." Evercore also emphasized the prospect of regulatory relaxation as a support for the stock market. Jacob Manoukian, Head of U.S. Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, also pointed out regulatory favorable factors. The bank said: "The market response to the election results has been strong, with a significant rise in the U.S. stock market. Small-cap stocks and regional banks have particularly benefited from investor confidence in pro-cyclical policies and the potential relaxation of regulations. This reflects a broader optimism about the resilience and growth prospects of the U.S. economy, as these industries are prepared to take advantage of increased M&A opportunities and a favorable regulatory environment." Barclays Cross-Asset Research team stated: "Following a decisive presidential election, our first view on financial markets is that there is still room for a rebound in the U.S. dollar, U.S. long-term interest rates have more quickly reflected the election results, the possibility of a year-end rally in the U.S. stock market is high, while European stocks, although they have already reflected tariff risks, may continue to lag behind." Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, summarized: "Capital is rarely destroyed; usually, it just moves around. Capital is simply flowing within the global financial system, seeking the most popular and efficient places on a relative (as opposed to absolute) basis. This is the main reason why the U.S. stock market outperforms other global stocks, and why, despite relatively high federal deficits, the U.S. dollar remains the primary world reserve currency. This is not to say that U.S. companies are the best, or that the U.S. governmental system is the best structure. On the contrary, both are better than most liquidity alternatives."

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