Hong Kong stock concept tracking | National Day "Golden Week" countdown! The number of travelers is expected to reach a new high. Focus on investment opportunities in the travel industry chain (with concept stocks)

As the National Day "Golden Week" enters the countdown, tourist travel is about to peak. Data released by several tourist platforms recently shows that long-distance trips have become the mainstream for National Day holiday bookings, with outbound trips showing remarkable growth. The number of bookings for outbound flights and hotels has significantly exceeded the same period last year. China Galaxy Securities believes that if the weather improves during the National Day holiday, the pent-up demand for travel is expected to be released. Combined with the low base from last year, there is expected to be an increase in comparison and year-on-year. According to the report "2024 National Day Tourism Forecast" released by Ctrip Group, over 60% of tourists during the National Day holiday will go on long-distance trips, with only 20% going on short-distance trips. Data from Tongcheng shows that as of now, the percentage of domestic long-distance trips is 52% and the percentage of outbound trips is 28%. On Ctrip's platform, visa applications for National Day travel have increased by 70% compared to last year. Rural and county tourism remains a hotspot for National Day travel this year. According to Ctrip's predictions, for domestic travel during the National Day holiday this year, tourists from first and second-tier cities will visit county towns for leisure travel and reunion trips, driving an increase of over 60% in rural tourism orders and a 20% increase in county tourism orders. According to data from some online travel platforms, during this year's National Day holiday, destinations such as Wulong in Chongqing, Nujiang in Yunnan, Meishan in Sichuan, Tacheng in Xinjiang, and Zigong in Sichuan have seen a leading increase in booking volume nationwide. These destinations, with the advantages of "beautiful scenery and low prices," are becoming more and more popular choices for tourists. In addition to traveling far and experiencing something unique, quality and diversity have become particularly important factors for consumers during this year's National Day holiday. Fliggy data shows that despite this year's National Day holiday being one day shorter than last year's Mid-Autumn National Day holiday, the current average consumer spending has still increased by about 6% compared to last year. Furthermore, with the increase in international flights and the decrease in air ticket prices, outbound and inbound travel are experiencing a "bidirectional rush." From a destination perspective, Ctrip's data shows a 60% increase in inbound travel orders during the National Day holiday, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, and others becoming the top ten popular cities for the National Day holiday. Outbound travel is also booming, with a 70% increase in visa applications for National Day travel compared to the same period last year. Qunar's big data shows that this year's National Day holiday international air ticket bookings have doubled compared to the same period last year, and currently, National Day outbound flight bookings cover 1597 cities in 144 countries. Regarding air tickets, flight management App data on September 24 shows that domestic airfare for the 2024 National Day holiday (economy class) has decreased by 23% compared to 2023, decreased by 8% compared to 2019, and increased by 35% compared to the Mid-Autumn holiday. Regarding popular domestic destinations, based on the flight search data, the top 10 most popular domestic destinations during the 2024 National Day holiday are Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha, and Kunming. As for international flights, the average price of international/Hong Kong and Macau air tickets for the National Day holiday has decreased by 30.43% compared to 2023, decreased by 12.86% compared to 2019, and increased by 16.24% compared to the 2024 Mid-Autumn holiday. Puyin International stated that the demand for Mid-Autumn travel is steadily increasing, and inbound and outbound tourism are recovering rapidly, with a trend of increasing volume and decreasing prices possibly continuing. The National Day holiday is expected to see a release of long-distance travel demand. Although there is uncertainty in consumption, the bank has observed strong resilience in overall tourism travel, with demand for experiential consumption such as concerts, music festivals, cultural tourism remaining strong, which is positive for OTA and the domestic hotel industry. Shenwan Hongyuan Group pointed out that there has been a significant increase in bookings for major transportation, and it is expected that the number of people traveling during the National Day holiday this year will reach a new high as long as extreme weather does not affect it. Airfare and hotel prices have returned to rational levels, primarily due to the replenishing of supply compared to last year. There has been a significant downshift in the source of long-distance outbound tourists, with customers from lower-tier cities becoming a new growth point. Related concept stocks: OTA platforms: TRIP.COM-S (09961): In the second half of September, Goldman Sachs released a research report maintaining a "buy" rating on TRIP.COM-S (09961) with a target price of 517 Hong Kong dollars. Due to the relatively broad domestic consumption and more elastic tourist demand, Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of a 16% compound annual growth rate for Ctrip Group from 2024 to 2027. TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780): TONGCHENGTRAVEL previously announced its performance, achieving revenue of 4.25 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, reaching a historical high in single-quarter revenue scale; adjusted net profit was 660 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%; the company's performance growth rate is higher than the industry average. HSBC stated that TONGCHENGTRAVEL's second-quarter performance slightly exceeded expectations due to improved core OTA profits, and a higher commission rate helped offset the impact of slowing GMV growth. Hotel sector: SHANGRI-LA ASIA (00069): At the end of August, CICC released a research report maintaining a "outperform the industry" rating on SHANGRI-LA ASIA (00069), considering factors such as the opening of new projects and the recruitment of employees leading to increased costs, leading to a 14% and 15% decrease in EBITDA (including joint ventures) for 2024 and 2025, respectively, to 812 million and 843 million USD. Based on the downward shift in industry valuation, the target price was reduced by 16% to 6.3 Hong Kong dollars. The company's 1H24 performance was slightly below the bank's expectations. HWORLD-S (01179): The group announced its interim performance for 2024, with total revenue of approximately 11.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.15%; net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited was 1.726 billion yuan; basic earnings per share was 0.55 yuan. In the second quarter, the group achieved total revenue of 6.148 billion yuan, an 11.18% year-on-year increase; net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited was 1.067 billion yuan, a 5.12% year-on-year increase; basic earnings per share was 0.34 yuan. Scenic spot sector: FOSUN TOURISM (01992): Recently announced its 2024 interim performance, with revenue of approximately 9.415 billion yuan, a 5.8% year-on-year increase; gross profit of approximately 3.2065 billion yuan, a 4.22% year-on-year increase.The profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders is about 322 million yuan, adjusted net profit is about 333 million yuan, and earnings per share is 0.26 yuan.CHINA TRAVEL HK (00308): Recently, CHINA TRAVEL HK released its interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2024. The group achieved a revenue of HK$2.137 billion, an increase of 3.99% year-on-year. Shareholders' attributable profit was HK$63.23 million, a decrease of 71.8% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 1.14 HK cents. The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 1.5 HK cents per share.