The stock price of Kuaishou (01024) has increased by 14% in the past six trading days, marking a moment of value reassessment.

date
24/09/2024
avatar
GMT Eight
After the end of the investor day event in 2024, Kuaishou (01024), which released strong value signals to investors, has started a strong upward trend. It is worth noting that since September 16, the first trading day after Kuaishou's 2024 investor day event, the stock price of Kuaishou has risen from HK$38.15 to HK$43.5 at the close on September 24, with an increase of 14% during this period. In just six trading days, Kuaishou's market value has increased by approximately HK$23.2 billion, mainly due to the clear and strong value signals released by the company's management team at the investor day event being recognized by the market, thereby triggering various investors to actively take long positions in the stock. It is understood that at the event, Kuaishou's founder, chairman, and CEO, Cheng Yixiao, and the company's management team collectively appeared to introduce the company's latest business developments and strategic goals to global investors and analysts onsite and online. At the event, Cheng Yixiao revealed his confidence in Kuaishou achieving the goal of surpassing 400 million DAUs (daily active users) in a single quarter in the second half of the year. Data shows that in the second quarter of this year, Kuaishou's DAUs reached 395 million. The executives present at the event introduced that in order to further promote the prosperity of the commercial ecosystem, Kuaishou will further push for user growth, retention, and revenue synergy through a balance of content and commercialization. At the same time, based on diverse business scenarios, Kuaishou will continue to focus on reshaping the platform ecosystem with advanced technology and AI models. Additionally, as a digital platform with a global perspective, Kuaishou will continue to advance towards internationalization by deepening its presence through diversified businesses to achieve high-quality platform development. After receiving the positive signals from Kuaishou's management, the capital market also understood this. For example, frontline investment institutions that attended the event made bullish statements afterwards. International renowned investment banks Jefferies and Goldman Sachs directly gave target prices of HK$70 and HK$67 respectively, with 60.9% and 54% upside potential compared to the current price, indicating that the investment value of Kuaishou has gained recognition from international authoritative investment institutions. Considered as a smart capital indicator, Jefferies believes that Kuaishou still has unlimited potential in diversified monetization models and overseas markets waiting to be unleashed. Furthermore, based on the company's commitment to achieving short-term goals of core business revenue and adjusted net profit margin exceeding 20%, as well as a long-term goal of gross profit margin reaching 60%, the bank rates Kuaishou as a "buy". Similarly, another international bank, Goldman Sachs, believes that Kuaishou has a strong advantage in the field of artificial intelligence strategy, especially in content recommendation, understanding, and generation. In addition, the decrease in server and bandwidth costs will help Kuaishou achieve its goal of increasing the medium to long-term gross profit margin to over 60%. Chinese brokerage firms with a similar background also have a positive outlook on Kuaishou's future. CICC believes that Kuaishou's core business is expected to continue driving revenue growth, while initiatives such as AI empowerment and operational efficiency are expected to enhance the company's profit release capacity. Based on this, China International Capital Corporation rates Kuaishou as "outperforming the market" with a target price of HK$56. Despite concerns in the market, Soochow analysts believe that whether viewed in year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter terms, Kuaishou's user stickiness has been increasing in the recent period. This indicates that the company has not stagnated in growth due to changes in the competitive landscape. Additionally, as Kuaishou's profit margin is still on an upward trajectory, the current valuation of the company has a high safety margin. Therefore, the bank maintains a "buy" rating on Kuaishou. Both domestic and international investment institutions are unanimously bullish on Kuaishou, which may explain why Kuaishou has seen consecutive significant increases in its stock price over the past few trading days, indicating a reversal in its trend. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that in addition to internal factors of Kuaishou, external favorable conditions are also rapidly accumulating, which may inject new momentum into the company's future stock price trend. Tianfeng's overseas team believes that compared to overseas markets, Chinese assets currently offer higher cost-effectiveness, especially based on expectations of gradual recovery and anticipation of improving fundamentals. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks have attractive valuations and high risk-return ratios. In conclusion, with the Federal Reserve officially entering an interest rate cut cycle, Kuaishou, favored by a number of top investment institutions, may attract more attention from international capital. At this timing, with sufficient internal growth momentum and attractive valuations, Kuaishou is indeed worth investors' attention.

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