Cui Dongshu: China's automobile imports in January-August 2024 decreased by 2% to 480,000 units.

On September 24th, Cui Dongshu wrote that the import volume of cars in China has been steadily declining at an average annual rate of about 8% since 2017, reaching only 800,000 units by 2023. In the period from January to August 2024, car imports amounted to 480,000 units, a 2% decrease compared to the previous year. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of international brands' localization, car imports have been consistently low in recent years, with three years of negative growth from January to August. In August 2024, there were 76,000 imported cars, a 2% increase year-on-year, and an 8% increase from July, which is a rare high growth for August. The increase in imported cars from countries such as Japan and the United States in August was significant. In August 2024, the highest imports came from Japan with 29,425 vehicles, followed by Germany with 18,873 vehicles, Slovakia with 10,089 vehicles, the United States with 8,340 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 3,219 vehicles, Sweden with 1,943 vehicles, Austria with 1,584 vehicles, Hungary with 1,160 vehicles, Mexico with 410 vehicles, and Belgium with 371 vehicles. The countries that saw the largest increase in imports compared to August of the previous year were Japan with 6,086 vehicles, Slovakia with 5,382 vehicles, Hungary with 1,006 vehicles, Belgium with 99 vehicles, and South Africa with 42 vehicles. From January to August 2024, the highest importers were Japan with 147,058 vehicles, Germany with 128,764 vehicles, the United States with 77,087 vehicles, Slovakia with 44,296 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 31,943 vehicles, Sweden with 14,658 vehicles, Austria with 8,667 vehicles, Hungary with 6,182 vehicles, Mexico with 4,220 vehicles, and South Korea with 3,974 vehicles. The countries with the highest increase in imports this year were Japan with 29,989 vehicles, Hungary with 3,590 vehicles, the Netherlands with 1,132 vehicles, and Belgium with 484 vehicles. In 2023, the export of passenger cars from the EU with engine capacities of 2.5 liters and above to China reached 196,000 units, worth 17.9 billion US dollars, a 3% increase compared to the previous year. From January to August 2024, the export of passenger cars with engine capacities of 2.5 liters and above from the EU to China reached 10.2 billion US dollars, a 13% decrease, with August amounting to 1.8 billion US dollars, a 23% increase. With the continuous growth of the Chinese automotive industry and the transformation to electrification changing the market demand structure, the demand for fuel vehicles is continuously declining, leading to a noticeable decrease in the import of fuel vehicles. As international relations continue to become more complex, it is necessary to establish more complex import models in advance to maintain a reasonable scale of imported cars. I. General trend of imported cars in China 1. Characteristic of car import growth After reaching a peak of 1.43 million imported cars in 2014, the import of cars has been declining since 2016-2017, with a slight stabilization and improvement in import growth. Since 2018, it has been continuously declining. In 2023, there was a sharp reduction in imports, with only 800,000 units imported for the whole year, a 10% decrease year-on-year. Currently, the monthly import volume for 2024 is maintained at around 50,000 units, with significant pressure on continued contraction. In August 2024, 76,000 cars were imported, a 2% increase year-on-year, and an 8% increase from July, which is a rare high growth for August; from January to August, there were 480,000 imported cars, a 2% decrease year-on-year. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of international brands' localization, car imports have been consistently low in recent years, with three years of negative growth from January to August. If fluctuations are smoothed out, it will be seven consecutive years of negative growth. The market for imported cars stabilized in 2021, with a total import volume of 930,000 units for the year, remaining steady year-on-year. In 2022, the import volume of cars reached 880,000 units, a 5% decrease year-on-year, which was a significant drop compared to 2020. In 2023, the import of 800,000 cars decreased by 10%. Recently, the international automotive production has rebounded, and there is still great potential for increasing the import volume of cars to drive consumer growth throughout the year. 2. Monthly trend of whole car imports Imported passenger cars have returned to normal trends after the pandemic. Looking at the monthly trends, imports have shown signs of recovery growth in recent years, closely following the trend of domestic cars. In 2024, there is a normal seasonal trend, with imports in January-April weaker than in the same period of 2023, a recovery in May, and good performance from June to August. It is uncertain whether there will be a continuous upward trend in the latter part of 2024, similar to what was seen after August 2023, as many dealers are waiting to reduce their stock before new taxes are implemented. 3. Characteristic of the structure of imported cars The imported car markets in 2017-2019 were relatively stable. In 2023, the import of whole cars reached 800,000 units, a significant decline compared to 2022. In 2024, the decline in the import of passenger cars slowed down, compared to the previous year, with traditional truck imports performing averagely. This year, passenger cars account for 98% of the structure of imported cars, with 200,000 imported sedans in January-August, accounting for 43%, and 159,000 imported four-wheel drive SUVs, accounting for 34%, while unnamed new energy vehicles imported 13,900 units, accounting for 3.44%. The performance of imported commercial vehicles in 2024 is moderate, especially with a significant increase in truck imports at the beginning of the year, but little strength in tractors and mid-duty trucks from May to August. 4. Characteristic of the structure of imported new energy vehicles In recent years, imported new energy passenger cars have shown continuous high growth, but there was a sharp decline in 2024. In August, the import of pure electric passenger cars dropped by 76% to 588 units, and the import of plug-in hybrids decreased by 63% to 935 units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 4.3%; from January to August, the import of pure electric passenger cars decreased by 29% to 13,985 units, while plug-in hybrids decreased by 40% to 8,608 units, showing weak performance in the import of new energy passenger cars. The traditional fuel import market for passenger cars has experienced a significant decline, with diesel trucks experiencing a slight increase, while the proportion of gasoline trucks has decreased, which is related to the demand for tractor trucks. The import performance of high-end gasoline pickup trucks in 2024 has been slow. Recently, the market for new energy passenger cars has shown relatively strong performance, with the import market for pure electric vehicles also performing relatively well. This year, the import share of new energy passenger cars reached 5%, with a slight decrease in pure electric vehicles compared to the previous year, and passenger cars remaining the absolute mainstay. The proportion of gasoline trucks in commercial vehicles is still relatively high, but diesel trucks are performing well. 5. Characteristic of imported car displacement structure The import of passenger cars is concentrated in gasoline cars with a displacement of less than 2 liters, showing good growth in the high-end segment for the time being. The import of passenger cars is mostly concentrated in gasoline cars with a displacement of less than 2 liters, accounting for 51% of the total import volume of passenger cars. The previously strong import trend of mid-range cars with a displacement of 2.5-3 liters has decreased, while the proportion of cars with a displacement of 2-2.5 liters has increased significantly, and those with a displacement of over 3 liters have recently shown strength. The market is becoming more high-end.The trend is not strong. Large displacement cars with engine capacity of 4 liters and above have temporarily risen from June to August, and risk aversion factors are more evident.2. Market structure of imported cars 1. Characteristics of imports by country The core countries for the import of passenger cars in China are still Japan, Germany, and the United States, with recent strong performance in imports from Hungary and a slight decline in imports from Slovakia. 2. Characteristics of import regions Imported cars are mainly from enterprises in Beijing, which has a strong advantage in headquarters economy. The import of cars in Jilin has decreased, indicating a higher number of imported new energy vehicles. The scale of imported cars in Beijing is the largest, while the performance of imported cars in Jilin is relatively good. 3. Monthly trend of imported vehicles In August, there was a good increase in imports of cars from Japan and Slovakia. In August 2024, the highest imports were from Japan with 29,425 units, Germany with 18,873 units, Slovakia with 10,089 units, the United States with 8,340 units, the United Kingdom with 3,219 units, Sweden with 1,943 units, Austria with 1,584 units, Hungary with 1,160 units, Mexico with 410 units, and Belgium with 371 units. The largest year-on-year increase in August compared to the previous year was from Japan with 6,086 units, Slovakia with 5,382 units, Hungary with 1,006 units, Belgium with 99 units, and South Africa with 42 units. From January to August 2024, the highest imports were from Japan with 147,058 units, Germany with 128,764 units, the United States with 77,087 units, Slovakia with 44,296 units, the United Kingdom with 31,943 units, Sweden with 14,658 units, Austria with 8,667 units, Hungary with 6,182 units, Mexico with 4,220 units, and South Korea with 3,974 units. The largest year-on-year increase in imports this year came from Japan with 29,989 units, Hungary with 3,590 units, the Netherlands with 1,132 units, and Belgium with 484 units. 4. Characteristics of imported new energy vehicles Before 2019, the import quantity of new energy vehicles was relatively large, but in 2021, the impact of domestic Tesla production caused a significant decline in pure electric vehicles. In 2021, the downturn in pure electric vehicles was significant due to the impact of domestic Tesla production, but the development of new energy vehicles in 2022-2023 was good, leading to more enterprises importing new energy vehicles. In 2024, the import of pure electric vehicles from Germany slowed down, plug-in hybrids from the United States showed strong performance, and overall the trend of hybrid vehicles from Japanese brands was strong. 3. Market structure of EU high-displacement imported cars 1. Composition of European exports of vehicles to China European exports of passenger vehicles to China are mainly gasoline vehicles, with over 40% being high-displacement vehicles above 2.5 liters, which have a strong market trend. 2. European passenger vehicles with displacements above 2.5 liters In 2023, European passenger vehicles with displacements above 2.5 liters reached export volumes of 196,000 units to China, an 11% increase year-on-year, and from January to August 2024, it reached 106,000 units with a 15% decrease, of which 18,000 units were in August, a 21% increase. 3. Import value of high-displacement vehicles from Europe In 2023, European passenger vehicles with displacements above 2.5 liters reached exports to China of 196,000 units and $17.9 billion, a 3% increase in value year-on-year, and from January to August 2024, it reached $10.2 billion, a 13% decrease, with $1.8 billion in August, a 23% increase year-on-year. 4. Market sales structure of vehicles 1. Overall sales of imported cars At present, the performance of imported car sales is slightly weaker, falling behind the trend of luxury car sales in the domestic market. In 2021, imported car sales reached 940,000 units, a 6% decrease compared to 2020. In 2022, imported car sales reached 840,000 units, a significant 10% decrease from 2021, and relatively weaker than the performance of domestically produced cars. In 2023, sales finally resumed a positive growth trend, reaching 910,000 units, an 8% increase. From January to August 2024, the compulsory insurance data for imported cars was 500,000 units, a 15% decrease year-on-year. Due to the promotion of a low base, the retail sales of imported cars were generally normal in the first eight months of this year, but the future pressure remains high. The trend of imported car sales has sharply declined, reaching a scale of 50,000 recently, a rare sales figure for a normal year. 2. Characteristics of imported car brands In recent years, sales of super luxury imported cars have continued to grow, but there was a 12% decline since 2023, accelerating in the first eight months of 2024. The overall weakness in super luxury cars reflects a temporary slowdown in the purchasing power of ultra-high-end consumer groups, or a shift to domestically produced high-end cars. Currently, the demand for imported cars is mainly supported by the demand for luxury cars. The proportion of imported luxury cars has greatly increased, with Lexus's imported retail sales surging by 12% and performing well. BMW, Audi, and Land Rover have shown relatively strong performance, while Porsche's recent performance is relatively weak. Joint venture brand imported cars have rapidly declined, with brands such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and Subaru experiencing significant contractions in imported cars. 3. Regional changes in imported super luxury car brands Overall, the demand in the imported car market is weak, with greater market pressure on imported luxury cars in traditional affluent areas such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hangzhou. 4. Regional changes in luxury cars The demand for luxury cars is generally weak, with greater market pressure on luxury cars in traditional affluent areas such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, etc.