Hong Kong Trade Development Council's latest report: Exporters remain optimistic about business prospects, future growth is expected.

On September 24, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council announced the export confidence index for the third quarter, showing that Hong Kong exporters remain optimistic about business prospects, indicating that Hong Kong's exports will continue to grow at a moderate pace in the short term. Specifically, the overall current situation index rose by 1 point to 52.6, reflecting strong sales and new order performance, price increases, and increased procurement activities. Among the three related classification indices, the trade value index rose by 2.5 points to 56.2, the procurement index rose by 3.3 points to 57.3, and although the sales and new order index fell slightly by 1.8 points, it still held steady at 55.7 in the expansion range. From the third quarter index, it can be seen that while the confidence of Hong Kong exporters has slightly declined compared to the second quarter, overall they are still optimistic. Most of the classification indices fall in the expansion range, indicating that exporters generally expect business to continue to grow. The overall expectation index dropped by 2.9 points to 51.4, but still remains in the expansion range. The decrease in the index is mainly attributed to the decline in the trade value expectation index by 8.5 points to 51.7, reflecting traders' expectation of a moderate increase. However, the sales and new order expectation index is 54.6, while the procurement expectation index is 55.4, indicating that traders are still optimistic about the outlook for sales and new orders, and will continue to increase procurement activities. Therefore, overall export expectations for Hong Kong will continue to grow moderately. In the third quarter of 2024, costs are clearly still the main factor weakening exporters' confidence. Although both the current situation index and the expectation index for costs have improved, they are still hovering around the level of 35, indicating that exporters continue to face significant cost pressures. The current situation index for all industries improved this quarter. Looking ahead, clothing exporters are the most optimistic (61.2), followed by the toy industry (58.7) and jewelry industry (56.4). Vivian Fung, Director of Research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, stated that despite the continued uncertainty in the international geopolitical situation affecting trade prospects, Hong Kong exporters remain resilient. In fact, the majority of respondents stated that they have not been affected by the latest round of trade restrictions and tariff increases, and any impact has been very minor.