Industrial Research: Overseas Tariff Policy Strengthened, Photovoltaic Export Landscape May Change

Industrial Research released a research report, stating that the Canadian Ministry of Finance announced the consideration of imposing tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products, with limited actual impact on the domestic export market; the US Section 301 tariffs may have a certain impact on the export of silicon materials and silicon wafers, while also expected to stimulate equipment exports. In terms of prices, this month's demand has not shown a clear improvement yet, with silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules all experiencing varying degrees of price declines. In terms of operating rates, the operating rates of various links in August remained at 50%-60%, with small changes compared to the previous month, and it is expected that companies will still focus on clearing inventory in September. Companies have frequently terminated financing plans, with domestic photovoltaic expansion projects investments stagnated, and companies turning to overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Policy and events: The Canadian Ministry of Finance announced the consideration of imposing tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic products, but the actual impact on the domestic export market is limited; the US Section 301 tariffs may have a certain impact on the export of silicon materials and silicon wafers, but also expected to stimulate equipment exports. Prices and operating rates remain at the bottom, with no clear improvement. In terms of prices, this month's demand has not shown a clear improvement yet, with silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules all experiencing varying degrees of price declines. There have been price increases for silicon wafers within the month, but downstream acceptance of price increases is low, making it difficult to sustain the upward trend, and gross profit margins and prices are expected to remain at the bottom. In terms of operating rates, the operating rates of various links in August remained at 50%-60%, with small changes compared to the previous month, and it is expected that companies will still focus on clearing inventory in September. In the silicon material sector, except for the top two companies that have an operating rate of over 80%, the operating rates of other companies are basically below 60%; in the silicon wafer and module sectors, individual companies have started adjusting strategies, with significant changes in operating rates. PV EPC prices remain stable, with the integration issue still prominent. In terms of domestic PV EPC bidding, in August 2024, according to incomplete statistics, the bidding capacity of PV EPC projects was approximately 18GW, a slight decrease of 2% compared to the previous month. In terms of prices, the average price for centralized EPC is about 2.77 yuan/W, an 8% increase compared to last month, while the price for distributed EPC is 3.13 yuan/W, an 8% decrease from the previous month. In terms of domestic PV utilization, in July 2024, the national PV utilization rate was 97.6%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, with regions such as Hubei, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Yunnan experiencing a decrease of over 2 percentage points, and the issue of PV integration needs to be continually monitored. Companies have frequently terminated financing plans. Regarding private placements, as of September 20, 2024, 11 listed companies (with the purpose of expanding PV projects) have ongoing private placement plans, with a total expected financing amount of approximately 22.2 billion yuan, covering main materials, auxiliary materials, raw materials, equipment, etc. In the past month, Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation announced the suspension of a 1 billion yuan private placement plan, Suzhou Good-ark Electronics announced an 880 million yuan private placement plan after terminating a convertible bond, and Arctech Solar Holding updated the progress of the private placement plan. Regarding convertible bonds, as of September 20, 2024, a total of 3 listed companies (with the purpose of expanding PV projects) have ongoing convertible bond issuance plans, with a total issuance scale exceeding 8.5 billion yuan. Within the past month, Suzhou Good-ark Electronics terminated an 1.1 billion yuan convertible bond plan. Domestic project investments stagnating, companies turning to overseas markets. According to incomplete statistics, in August 2024, there were 6 expansion projects signed, with 3 domestic and 3 overseas projects. Domestic signed projects tend to focus on next-generation battery technologies, with a lower probability of short-term implementation, and influenced by overseas policies, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have attracted a portion of domestic and foreign enterprises.