CITIC SEC: mRNA tumor vaccines may open up a market worth billions, expected to become the first commercial year in 2025.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that 2025 is expected to become the inaugural year for the commercialization of mRNA tumor vaccines. With superior and more stable efficacy in reducing recurrence and distant metastasis, it is predicted that mRNA tumor vaccines will become the next blockbuster product in the mRNA vaccine field and quickly open up the market. The mRNA tumor vaccine industry has high technological barriers and will pioneer a market worth billions. It is estimated that by 2035, the global and domestic mRNA tumor vaccine market sizes will reach 21 billion U.S. dollars and 10 billion yuan, respectively. By summarizing two investment themes, it is recommended to focus on: 1) vaccine manufacturers with leading mRNA technology platforms, commercial development experience, and cooperation foundations; 2) leading suppliers of upstream mRNA vaccine raw materials. mRNA tumor vaccines - a new generation of tumor immunotherapy. The increasing number of tumor patients is driving the continuous expansion of the anti-tumor drug market. According to Frost & Sullivan's official website, it is expected that by 2030, the global and domestic anti-tumor drug market sizes will reach 484.5 billion U.S. dollars and 651.3 billion yuan, with corresponding 2025-2030 CAGR of 9.6% and 10.2%, respectively. Different from traditional tumor treatment, mRNA tumor vaccines, as a new type of tumor immunotherapy, directly deliver tumor antigen signals, activating both cellular immunity and humoral immunity at the same time, establishing a long-lasting and stable protective mechanism. Currently, Moderna's tumor vaccine mRNA-4157 has entered Phase III clinical trials, with the company expecting its pipeline targeting melanoma to achieve commercialization as early as 2025. CITIC SEC believes that mRNA tumor vaccines, with superior and more stable efficacy in reducing recurrence and distant metastasis, are poised to become the next blockbuster product in the mRNA vaccine field and rapidly penetrate the market. mRNA tumor vaccines will pioneer a market worth billions. 1) Vaccine production structure adjustment, vaccine design as an important production link: CITIC SEC believes that the development of tumor vaccines differs from that of COVID-19 vaccines in that vaccine design will account for the majority of costs; 2) Tumor vaccines have high technological barriers: The main technological barriers of mRNA tumor vaccines include tumor neoantigen prediction, nucleic acid modification, and delivery systems, with tumor neoantigen prediction being a key factor currently hindering the progress of mRNA tumor vaccine research and development; 3) Pioneering a market worth billions: CITIC SEC predicts that by 2030, the global and domestic mRNA tumor vaccine market sizes will reach 14.5 billion U.S. dollars and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, and by 2035, they will reach 21 billion U.S. dollars and 10 billion yuan, respectively. Learning from others: Overseas mRNA vaccine leaders actively layout tumor pipelines. 1) Possess a comprehensive mRNA technology platform, with core technology independently developed: Establish a full-process platform from design to production, with key technologies patented, and leveraging the power of AI; 2) Have extensive commercial development experience, with tumor vaccine landing imminent: Moderna and BioNTech companies only took one year from the development of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to emergency approval and market launch, with the sales revenue of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines reaching around 58 billion U.S. dollars in 2021. The progress of personalized tumor vaccine development exceeds expectations, and according to GMTEight, Moderna's CEO expects that mRNA-4157 may achieve commercialization as early as 2025; 3) Seek cooperation for mutual development, leveraging the synergies of partners: BioNTech and Genentech cooperate to build a personalized vaccine development platform, while Moderna collaborates with Merck to conduct research on personalized vaccine combination therapy. Emerging: The development of domestic mRNA tumor vaccines is promising. 1) Domestic tumor vaccine development is in its early stages: Currently, multiple pipelines are in Phase I clinical trials or have obtained clinical trial approval; 2) The development potential of domestic mRNA tumor vaccines cannot be ignored: Domestic mRNA vaccine leaders have overcome key technological barriers, with Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products investing in Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology acquiring SinoVaccine Biosciences to establish an mRNA vaccine pipeline, Walvax Biotechnology's mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and COVID-19 variant vaccine obtaining emergency approvals in Indonesia and domestically, and CanSino Biologics Inc. providing mRNA vaccine CDMO services for AstraZeneca, etc.; 3) Seeking strategic cooperation is the way to accelerate the research and development of mRNA tumor vaccines: Benchmarking against overseas competitors, domestic mRNA vaccine manufacturers need to break through by collaborating, especially in technology and product aspects. Risk factors: - Research and development progress falling short of expectations; - Sales and promotion falling short of expectations; - Vaccine design and production time may not meet patient demands; - Domestic mRNA vaccine platform construction falling short of expectations; - Risks of policy changes exceeding expectations; - Efficacy falling short of expectations.