Overnight US stocks | Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Gold prices hit record highs again. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose by 4.9%.
24/09/2024
GMT Eight
On Monday, the three major indices rose, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new closing highs again. Several Federal Reserve officials on Monday did not rule out the possibility of continuing to cut interest rates significantly, pointing out that current rates continue to weigh heavily on the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve's Kashkari implied support for another 50 basis point rate cut this year, while Chicago Fed President Evans said rates need to be significantly lowered.
[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose 61.29 points, or 0.15%, to 42124.65; the Nasdaq rose 25.95 points, or 0.14%, to 17974.27; the S&P 500 rose 16.02 points, or 0.28%, to 5718.57. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 4.9%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rose 3.3%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) fell nearly 1%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.3%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose 2%.
[European Stocks] Germany's DAX30 rose 114.59 points, or 0.61%, to 18845.45; UK's FTSE 100 rose 29.20 points, or 0.35%, to 8259.19; France's CAC40 rose 7.82 points, or 0.10%, to 7508.08; Europe's Stoxx 50 rose 14.31 points, or 0.29%, to 4885.85; Spain's IBEX35 rose 53.25 points, or 0.45%, to 11806.55; Italy's FTSE MIB Index fell 76.25 points, or 0.23%, to 33686.00.
[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.53%, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.42%, and Vietnam's VN30 Index fell 0.37%.
[Gold] Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2634.90 per ounce, surpassing last Friday's record high. Gold has continued to rise since the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last week. The precious metal had already hit records earlier this year.
[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell slightly to $63124.9 per coin. U.S. presidential candidate He Jinli finally mentioned cryptocurrency last Sunday. He said she would "encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets, while protecting consumers and investors."
[Crude Oil] The price of WTI crude oil futures in the U.S. fell 0.9% on Monday. Disappointing business activity in the Eurozone has heightened concerns about weak energy demand. The November delivery of WTI futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 63 cents, or 0.9%, to $70.37 per barrel. Economic data released today indicates that dominant service sector activity in the Eurozone remains stable, while manufacturing decline accelerates, suggesting a surprisingly sharp contraction in commercial activities in September.
[Metals] London metals rose, with zinc up 0.56%, copper up 0.53%, and nickel up 0.46%.
[Macro News]
U.S. business activity in September stabilized, with inflation pressures rising. S&P Global, Inc.'s PMI data for September shows that business activity in the U.S. remained stable, but average prices for goods and services rose at the fastest pace in six months, possibly indicating a warming inflation in the coming months. September's PMI data is consistent with data released this month, including retail sales, indicating a strong growth momentum in the U.S. economy in the third quarter. However, the uncertainty of the November 5th presidential election is affecting business confidence. The service sector continues to expand steadily, but manufacturing falls to a 15-month low. The average prices for goods and services rose at the fastest pace since March, signaling the first acceleration of sales price inflation in four months. The rising costs (mainly driven by rising service costs related to wage increases) are considered to be the cause of this growth. On the surface, this may indicate that price pressures are building up again, but more and more evidence suggests that inflation is cooling down.
Chicago Fed Chair: Lower interest rates are needed to achieve an "easy landing" for the economy. Interest rates need to continue to fall. Chicago Fed Chair Evans said at a meeting on Monday that in order to achieve an "easy landing" for the economy, interest rates need to continue to fall. Despite significant declines in inflation, the labor market is becoming soft, and even after the Fed cut the target rate by 50 basis points last week, rates are still close to their highest levels in 20 years. Evans, who has been Chicago Fed chair since January 2023, will have voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next year. Evans said at the annual meeting of the National Association of State Treasury Officials in Chicago, "What I have seen over the past two years is a significant decline in inflation, but it has not triggered an economic recession, which is unprecedented in the United States even globally." He added, "Now the unemployment rate has slowly risen to 4.2%, and many people think that this is a fundamentally stable full employment level, which is also the state we hope the unemployment rate will maintain." Evans pointed out that if monthly inflation data continues at the current pace, the inflation rate will meet the Fed's 2% annual target in a year. He also mentioned that real-time economic activity indicators show strong GDP growth in the third quarter.
Fed's Kashkari: A 50 basis point rate cut was the right decision. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that the Fed's decision to lower rates by half a percentage point last week was the right one. Previously, the Fed had kept rates at record highs for over a year, but last week it lowered the target range by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. However, the rate cut decision was not unanimously agreed upon, with Fed Governor Bowman leaning towards a 25 basis point cut. In an article, Kashkari mentioned that the Fed's main policy tool - the overnight federal funds rate - was said to be at near "twenty-year high levels, stating that "the risk...The balance has shifted from high inflation to the further risk of a softer labor market, indicating that the federal funds rate should be lowered. However, even so, the overall stance of policy remains tight. Kashkari is not one of the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve this year, but until recently, he was still considered a more hawkish member of the Federal Reserve policy makers.A major strike at U.S. ports is imminent, and disruptions in the supply chain during the pandemic may reoccur. Just as U.S. policymakers shift their focus from controlling inflation to boosting the job market, the economy faces turmoil that may lead to a resurgence of supply chain disruptions and consumer dissatisfaction from the pandemic era. This imminent impact comes as a contentious election is just weeks away. Approximately 45,000 dockworkers at major ports along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico are threatening to strike on October 1st. With negotiations at a standstill since June, industry officials now see a strike as inevitable, and ocean freight companies and port operators have begun notifying customers and implementing contingency plans. Over half of the containerized cargo entering and exiting the U.S. passes through the trade gates affected by the strike. According to estimates, a week-long strike could result in economic losses as high as $7.5 billion. Analysts warn that the congestion at ports reducing capacity and driving up freight costs could have a ripple effect globally.
Top trader at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: U.S. stocks are still in a bull market, but the margin for error is quite small, and the risk/reward is not very appealing. Tony Pasquariello, a top trader at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., pointed out that in the past forty years, there have been five instances where a Fed rate cut did not lead to an economic recession, and on average, the S&P 500 index rose by 17% in the 12 months following the first rate cut. However, in the current rate cut cycle, with U.S. GDP growth hovering around a strong 3% and the Dow and S&P indices reclaiming historic highs, the current stock market, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, poses a "not very appealing" risk/reward, and the "margin for error is quite small." He still believes that the U.S. stock market is in a bull market, and the future trend is still upward, but the risk/reward has significantly decreased, and the path will be unstable. However, the strategy of buying into the market during significant pullbacks over the past two years is still effective.
Individual stock news
Boeing Company (BA.US) proposes to increase wages by 30% over four years to end the mechanic strike. Boeing Company on Monday significantly increased the contract offer to the mechanic union to end a strike that could harm the company's interests. Boeing Company's chief negotiator, Fitzsimmons, said the new offer was submitted around 9 am local time. "We hope it addresses concerns on both sides and we hope they can vote on it soon." The new proposal includes a 30% wage increase over four years, higher than the 25% offer rejected by the mechanics. This includes an immediate 12% raise, with a 6% raise each year for the remaining three years. The annual bonus that was canceled in the previous offer has also been reinstated, adding a variable additional income, usually around 4% annually. Boeing Company's new proposal also doubles the signing bonus, so each mechanic will receive a $6,000 bonus after signing. Boeing Company is currently up more than 2.2%.
Bank of America Corp (BAC.US) plans to open over 165 new branches by the end of 2026. Bank of America Corp announced on Monday that it plans to open over 165 new branches in the U.S. by the end of 2026. The bank has redesigned its branch locations to emphasize face-to-face sales of products such as mortgages and investments, rather than conventional teller transactions. Bank of America Corp stated in a statement that this year's expansion plans will include the opening of 40 new branches. The company said it currently operates in 38 states, except for the District of Columbia, and plans to expand to 41 states by 2026.
The potential acquisition of Intel Corporation (INTC.US) by QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM.US) may raise concerns about anti-trust and factory outsourcing. Analysts stated that a potential deal to acquire Intel Corporation may accelerate QUALCOMM Incorporated's diversification, but it will also bring a loss-making semiconductor manufacturing division to the smartphone chip maker, which may struggle to turn it around or sell it. The acquisition will also face strict global anti-trust scrutiny, as it would combine two significant chip companies to create the largest deal in the industry's history, forming a dominant player in the smartphone, PC, and server markets.