CMSC: PICC Property and Casualty Insurance (02328) premium growth is stable and improving, with the impact of major disasters relatively manageable.

Intelligence Finance App learned that, according to the research report released by CMSC, in August, both the vehicle insurance and non-vehicle insurance premiums of PICC P&C (02328) maintained a stable and positive trend. After the "Mojie" typhoon landed in Hainan in September, by noon on September 8th, the estimated loss amount of the company exceeded 500 million yuan, with the main reported cases involving vehicle insurance, home insurance, agricultural insurance, etc. After the "Bebijia" typhoon landed in Shanghai, the company has also completed multiple claims payments. Overall, it is expected that the impact of natural disasters on the comprehensive cost ratio of Q3 is relatively controllable. CMSC emphasized that as a leading company in the property insurance industry, the company has stable ROE and high dividend yield, making it a good long-term investment value. The main points of CMSC are as follows: Overall premium growth rate remains stable and positive. The company achieved total premium income of 382.151 billion yuan from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Among them, the premium income of the vehicle insurance business reached 186.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while the premium income of the non-vehicle insurance business reached 195.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. In terms of a single month, the company achieved a premium income of 37.375 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, with the premium income of vehicle insurance increasing by 4.4% year-on-year and that of non-vehicle insurance increasing by 12.2% year-on-year. The growth rate of vehicle insurance premiums continues to improve. In August, the monthly premium income of the company for vehicle insurance increased by 4.4% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points month-on-month. The continuous improvement in growth rate is mainly due to the narrowing of the decline in new car sales and average premium per vehicle (in August, compared to the same period last year, domestic narrow passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.8%, as opposed to the previous -2.7%). With the further strengthening of the vehicle scrappage policy and the gradual introduction of local policies for replacing old cars with new ones, consumer cautiousness has further eased, and overall market enthusiasm for cars has increased, with the expected further acceleration of the growth rate of vehicle insurance premiums in the second half of the year. Non-vehicle insurance premiums continue to grow at double digits. In August, the monthly non-vehicle insurance premiums of the company grew by 12.2% year-on-year, down 5.2 percentage points month-on-month. In detail, health insurance (4.776 billion yuan, up 30.7% year-on-year) and liability insurance (2.787 billion yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year) continued to grow significantly, while agricultural insurance (2.532 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year) and commercial property insurance (1.109 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year) continued to decline, mainly due to the impact of short-term business rhythms. Investment recommendation: In August, the vehicle insurance and non-vehicle insurance premiums of the company maintained a stable and positive trend. After the "Mojie" typhoon landed in Hainan in September, by noon on September 8th, the estimated loss amount of the company exceeded 500 million yuan, with the main reported cases involving vehicle insurance, home insurance, agricultural insurance, etc.; after the "Bebijia" typhoon landed in Shanghai, the company has also completed multiple claims payments. Overall, it is expected that the impact of natural disasters on the comprehensive cost ratio of Q3 is relatively controllable. We always emphasize that as a leading company in the property insurance industry, the company has stable ROE and high dividend yield, making it a good long-term investment value. Risk warning: Increased market competition, changes in regulatory policies, unexpected natural disasters, economic recovery falling short of expectations, and sluggish automotive consumption.