Cui Dongshu: In August, China's automobile exports reached 610,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39%, mainly due to the improvement of international market competitiveness.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Cui Dongshu, stated in an article that in August 2024, China's automobile exports reached 610,000 units, a 39% increase compared to August 2023 and a 10% increase from the previous month, with a good trend compared to the previous month. From January to August, China's automobile exports totaled 4.09 million units, with a 27% increase in exports. The main driving force this year continues to be the improvement in China's product competitiveness, slight growth in European and American markets, and the complete replacement of international brands in the Russian market under the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increase in export competitiveness of Chinese fuel vehicles. The main driving force this year continues to be the improvement in China's product competitiveness, slight growth in the Central and South American markets, and the complete replacement of international brands in the Russian market under the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increase in export competitiveness of Chinese fuel vehicles. From January to August 2024, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.31 million units, a 25% increase compared to the previous year, accounting for 98% of the total export volume of new energy vehicles. In August 2024, the export volume of new energy vehicles reached 180,000 units, a 20.9% year-on-year increase, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.397 million units, a 24.9% increase. In August 2024, the top 10 countries for China's automobile exports were: Russia with 130,948 units, Mexico with 52,640 units, the UAE with 28,576 units, Saudi Arabia with 21,836 units, Belgium with 19,752 units, the Philippines with 14,609 units, the United States with 14,064 units, Italy with 14,005 units, Malaysia with 13,224 units, and the United Kingdom with 12,670 units. The top five countries with export growth in August were Russia with 50,872 units, Mexico with 18,185 units, the UAE with 16,171 units, Belgium with 13,610 units, and Saudi Arabia with 8,116 units. From January to August 2024, the top 10 countries for total vehicle exports were: Russia with 705,514 units, Mexico with 323,540 units, the UAE with 203,048 units, Brazil with 192,254 units, Belgium with 182,504 units, Saudi Arabia with 161,261 units, the UK with 137,925 units, Australia with 118,888 units, the Philippines with 104,402 units, and Turkey with 95,650 units. The top five countries with export growth from January to August were Russia with 161,695 units, Brazil with 136,511 units, the UAE with 105,043 units, Mexico with 65,306 units, and Kyrgyzstan with 37,516 units. The top 5 countries contributed 62% to the export growth, with Russia making a significant contribution. In January-August 2024, markets such as Australia, Thailand, Ecuador, and France saw a significant decline, while the Central Asian and Russian markets showed relatively strong performance, and Brazil and Russia became core markets for export growth. In 2023, countries with relatively high export growth included Russia, Central Asia, North America, and Asia, with recent strong performance in Russia, Mexico, and Brazil. Overall, the global pandemic has played a role in promoting China's automobile exports, and the increase in overseas conflicts and the improvement in China's car cost-effectiveness have also led to an increase in exports to various countries. In August 2024, the top 10 countries for the exports of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's vehicles were: Belgium with 18,089 units, Mexico with 12,458 units, Thailand with 11,101 units, Canada with 9,399 units, the Philippines with 9,350 units, India with 9,306 units, Indonesia with 7,534 units, Germany with 7,411 units, Slovenia with 6,077 units, and Israel with 5,820 units. The top five countries with export growth in August compared to August 2023 were Belgium with 13,816 units, Mexico with 10,928 units, Slovenia with 4,651 units, Indonesia with 4,201 units, and Turkey with 3,573 units. In January to August 2024, the top 10 countries for total exports of new energy vehicles were: Belgium with 170,876 units, Brazil with 136,112 units, the UK with 88,933 units, Thailand with 81,546 units, the Philippines with 69,987 units, Mexico with 61,647 units, India with 53,738 units, Australia with 51,843 units, the UAE with 47,716 units, and Germany with 41,105 units. The top five countries with export growth of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles from January to August were Brazil with 106,171 units, Mexico with 53,792 units, the UAE with 27,870 units, Indonesia with 27,674 units, and Belgium with 26,145 units, with these countries contributing to 98% of the export growth, with Brazil making a significant contribution. The driving force behind export growth is external help, high quality, hard work, and geopolitical changes. First, external help is evident in the resilience of China's automobile industry supply chain. Secondly, high quality is reflected in the increased contribution of new energy exports. Thirdly, hard work is seen in the efforts of domestic brands' enterprises. Fourthly, geopolitical changes are driving the comprehensive development of China's exports. The export of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles is showing a trend of high-quality development in developed countries, mainly exporting to Western Europe and Southeast Asia markets. Over the past two years, countries in Western and Southern Europe such as Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, and the UK have continued to be export highlights, although there was a slight decline in August. This year, exports to countries in the Americas such as Brazil have strengthened. Domestic brands such as SAIC passenger cars and BYD Company Limited's new energy models have demonstrated strong performance. Although the export of new energy vehicles to Europe slowed down in August, it is expected to rebound as Europe gradually adapts to the impact of the subsidy cuts. I. Overall Trends in China's Automobile Exports 1. Historical trends in automobile exports After experiencing a plateau period of millions of units for many years, China's automobile exports finally began to break through in 2021. Following a sharp decline during the global economic downturn from 2013 to 2016, export growth stabilized and improved from 2017 to 2020, with annual export volume maintained at around 1 million units. In 2020, exports reached 1.08 million units, a 13% year-on-year decrease, followed by a period of high growth. Due to the impact of the global pandemic and the production of Tesla domestically, China's automobile exports achieved significant growth from 2021 to 2023.Breakthroughs in both sales volume and unit price. In 2023, China's automobile exports reached 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth of 54% in exports. From January to August 2024, China's automobile exports reached 4.09 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%. As long as there is a stable market environment internationally, there is still enormous room for the development of China's automobile exports in the future.In 2020, the total sales for the entire year reached 1.085 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. In 2021, the export market sales reached 2.187 million units, an increase of 102% compared to the previous year. In 2022, the export market sales reached 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, mainly due to the shortage of overseas supply and a significant increase in the export competitiveness of Chinese car companies. In 2023, China's automobile exports reached 5.22 million units, with a continued strong growth in export speed of 54%, demonstrating strong performance compared to the gradual recovery of domestic car sales. In the past two years, Chinas export growth has been significant amid the international pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In August 2024, China's automobile exports reached 610,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39% compared to August 2023, and a month-on-month increase of 10%. The trend in August was strong compared to the previous month; from January to August, China's automobile exports reached 4.09 million units, with a growth rate of 27%. The main driving force this year remains the improvement in China's product competitiveness, as well as a slight increase in the European and American markets and the comprehensive replacement of international brands in the Russian market under the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increase in export competitiveness brought about by the improvement in China's fuel vehicle exports. 2. Monthly Trend of Vehicle Exports From a monthly trend perspective, exports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, with highs in the summer and contrasting trends with domestic markets. In 2022, the automotive market saw a strong start but exports declined month by month from February to April due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic, followed by a continuous rise from May to December. In 2023, exports continued to be strong, maintaining the volume of the fourth quarter of 2022, demonstrating a significant increase in the world competitiveness of China's automotive industry. From January to August 2024, China's automobile exports were basically in line with previous years' monthly trends. The growth rate in the first quarter slowed compared to the super high growth rate in the previous three years, with a rebound in growth in April and May, a weak June, and export growth recovering from August onwards. Exports in the first two months of the year increased by only 20%, while from March to May, the growth was over 30%, indicating a strong trend in automobile exports in the recent complex external environment. 3. Characteristics of Vehicle Export Structure Before 2020, exports were maintained at a million level. In 2021, the export of complete vehicles (including chassis) reached 2.19 million units, with a growth rate of 102%, which was considered good performance. The better-performing export categories in 2021-2022 were four-wheel drive SUVs and other passenger cars. In 2023, automobile exports exhibited comprehensive strength, with strong performance in fuel vehicles, and passenger cars as the main force of exports, with a growth rate of 65%, especially the good performance of four-wheel drive SUVs and compact cars. In 2024, the demand growth in the Russian market slowed down, but passenger car exports showed strong resilience. Truck, bus, and special vehicle exports showed signs of weakness, with a 40% increase in passenger car exports in August showing stability in trends. Customs truck exports increased by 9%, relatively low compared to the sluggish domestic truck market. Recent truck exports have been more diverse, with better performance in medium and heavy truck exports. In terms of structure, the proportion of passenger car exports has been increasing, while the proportion of truck and bus exports has decreased significantly. The performance of several main passenger car models has been relatively consistent, with a decline in the export of small passenger cars. As of August 2024, passenger cars with less than 9 seats accounted for the highest proportion at 32%, reaching 35% in August. Light truck growth has shown good performance in truck exports, while tractor exports have declined. Large and medium-sized buses have achieved growth, while light buses have shown weaker growth. 4. Characteristics of Export Power Structure In 2024, the export growth rate of passenger cars rebounded, with a better trend in August compared to the first half of the year. In August 2024, the export of pure electric passenger cars decreased, while plug-in hybrids and hybrid vehicles showed strong performance. Gasoline passenger cars performed strongly in the first eight months of the year. Truck and bus exports were sluggish this year, but the trend in gasoline trucks and light buses was strong, indicating a shift in growth momentum. II. Automotive Export Market Pattern 1. Regional Characteristics of Export Manufacturers In August, Shanghai was replaced by Anhui as the national leader in vehicle exports. The importance of Shanghai in China's exports is very clear, with 950,000 units exported from Shanghai in 2023. This is mainly due to the relatively strong performance of local companies in Shanghai, especially SAIC passenger cars and Tesla, both of which have relatively strong export volumes, with SAIC General Motors' exports showing stable performance. However, Shanghai's recent export volumes have been unusually low, dropping to 530,000 units in the first eight months of 2024, a 14% decrease, but with a 36% increase in August. Anhui's exports have shown relatively strong performance, primarily due to Chery's strong export performance. Shaanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu have seen a significant increase in the contribution of automobile exports. 2. Regional Trends Analysis of Export Areas From January to August 2024, exports of pure electric vehicles to Oceania and Europe slowed significantly, but pure electric exports to other regions remained strong. The Red Sea crisis had little impact on Chinese exports, while EU policies led to a slight reduction in exports to Belgium by Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation, with the growth in August being a result of the exploration of markets in Africa, South America, and the Middle East. In terms of sales volume, exports from 2017 to 2023 showed a gradual upward trend, mainly due to contributions from Europe. In 2024, the EU's share decreased, with an increase in exports to Central and South America and North America. New energy vehicle exports to Japan and South Korea in August accounted for 50%, far exceeding other regions. Recently, the market share of developed markets in Europe and North America has decreased, with developed countries' market performance declining. Exports of new energy vehicles to South America have shown significant fluctuations. Demand for exports in poor and underdeveloped regions is unstable and unsustainable. 3. Analysis of Whole Vehicle Export Trends by Country The average export price in 2021 was $16,000 per vehicle, increasing to $18,000 in 2022, $19,000 in 2023, and remaining at $19,000 this year, almost consistent with the average price last year. Since the major changes in the Russian market, other foreign investments have withdrawn, leading to more exports from China to Russia since 2023. Last year, there were more exports to Belgium, but this year, with the economic downturn in Europe, export performance has been average. Chile, Peru, and other car markets saw a sharp decline in 2023, while markets like Brazil and Turkey have shown some recovery this year, with Brazil having significant fluctuations. Asia remains an important market for Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. The Mexican market has performed well in recent months, not yet affected by tariffs from Europe and the United States. 4. Trends in Monthly Changes in Vehicle Exports In August 2024, the top 10 countries for Chinese automobile exports were Russia with 130,948 units, Mexico with 52,640 units, the United Arab Emirates with 28,576 units, and Saudi Arabia with 21,836 units.Belgium 19752 cars, Philippines 14609 cars, United States 14064 cars, Italy 14005 cars, Malaysia 13224 cars, United Kingdom 12670 cars; The top five countries with the largest increase in car exports from China in August: Russia 50872 cars, Mexico 18185 cars, UAE 16171 cars, Belgium 13610 cars, Saudi Arabia 8116 cars. The top 10 countries in total vehicle exports from January to August 2024: Russia 705514 cars, Mexico 323540 cars, UAE 203048 cars, Brazil 192254 cars, Belgium 182504 cars, Saudi Arabia 161261 cars, United Kingdom 137925 cars, Australia 118888 cars, Philippines 104402 cars, Turkey 95650 cars. The top five countries with the largest increase in car exports from China in January-August: Russia 161695 cars, Brazil 136511 cars, UAE 105043 cars, Mexico 65306 cars, Kyrgyzstan 37516 cars. The contribution of the top 5 countries to the increase is 62%, with Russia contributing significantly to the exports. Market declines were significant in Thailand, Ecuador, France, etc. from January to August 2024; Central Asia and Russia markets showed relatively strong performance, with Brazil and Russia markets becoming core markets for growth.In 2023, the markets with relatively high growth are Russia, Central Asia, North America, and Asia. Recently, Russia, Mexico, and the UAE have all been strong. Overall, the global pandemic has been somewhat beneficial to China's automobile export market, as overseas conflicts and China's improved cost-effectiveness have led to increased exports to various countries. 5. Analysis of Changes in Major Export Countries Over the Years In previous years, the results of automobile exports to overseas markets were not ideal. In 2020, the main countries for automobile exports were Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Chile, with significant fluctuations. In 2022, the main markets for automobile exports were Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Belgium, Australia, the Philippines, and Russia, with many less developed countries. In 2023, the main markets for automobile exports were Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK, with a strong trend in the European and American markets. Recently, relatively developed countries like Australia, Belgium, and the UK have shown improvement. In 2024, there were changes in the structure of automobile exports, with Russia and Mexico remaining the top two, Belgium recovering, a sharp decline in exports to Brazil, and an increase in exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. 6. Analysis of Changes in Exports to Russia In 2022, China exported 160,000 vehicles to Russia. In 2023, China's automobile exports to Russia reached 910,000 vehicles, a 459% year-on-year increase. From January to August 2024, China exported 710,000 vehicles to Russia, a 30% increase. Since 2023, Russia has suddenly become China's largest automobile export market, marking a significant change in Chinese automobile exports after 15 years. In 2008, Chinese domestic brands performed well in the Russian market, but with Russia imposing hefty tariffs on Chinese cars, many Chinese car companies withdrew from Russia that year. Recently, as other countries' car companies have exited Russia, Chinese car companies quickly met Russia's vehicle supply needs in 2023. Currently, Chinese car companies in Russia should be relatively secure, but caution is still required. In 2024, there was a dramatic fluctuation in the export of new energy vehicles to Russia, as Russia adjusts its import regulations based on supply and demand. In 2024, after a sharp increase, the export of tractor-trailers and heavy trucks from China declined, while the export volume of passenger cars increased recently.201 vehicles, 3573 vehicles in Turkey.Top 10 countries for the total export volume of new energy vehicles from January to August 2024: Belgium 170,876 units, Brazil 136,112 units, UK 88,933 units, Thailand 81,546 units, the Philippines 69,987 units, Mexico 61,647 units, India 53,738 units, Australia 51,843 units, UAE 47,716 units, Germany 41,105 units; The top five countries for the export growth of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's vehicles from January to August are Brazil with 106,171 units, Mexico with 53,792 units, UAE with 27,870 units, Indonesia with 27,674 units, and Belgium with 26,145 units, with the top 5 countries contributing 98% of the growth, with Brazil contributing significantly. Belgium, the UK, Brazil, and Thailand are the major directions for export in 2024, while recent markets like the Netherlands, UK, and France have shown weak export performance. Non-EU European countries, Mexico, Thailand, and Turkey have shown strong performance. 5. Analysis of the changes in the export of pure electric passenger cars in 2024 In 2022, the EU accounted for 46% of the exports of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles, with a recent decline in the proportion of pure electric exports to Europe and Central and South America. Recent exports of pure electric vehicles to Southeast Asia have been consistently strong. 6. Analysis of the changes in the export of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in 2024 Demand for plug-in hybrids in the former Soviet Union region is growing rapidly, while the demand for Chinese plug-in hybrid models in the EU region has drastically decreased. Demand in Brazil has weakened recently. Classification of passenger car exports trends 1. Export of passenger cars by displacement The main range of passenger car exports is in the 1-liter to 1.5-liter range, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's independent passenger car products. Recently, exports of 1.5-2-liter models have grown rapidly, indicating a greater demand for China's high-end models in countries like Russia. The product differentiation of electric vehicle models, with a significant improvement in the export of high-end electric vehicles, and good growth in the export of entry-level plug-in hybrids. 2. Characteristics of the export structure of passenger cars China's fuel passenger car exports from January to August 2024 were strong to Russia, the UAE, Brazil, the US, Turkey, etc. The main declining markets in 2024 were Australia, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, etc. China's pure electric passenger car exports from January to August 2024 mainly increased to Brazil, Belgium, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. The declining markets were Spain, Thailand, the Netherlands, Australia, Slovenia, etc. The increase in plug-in hybrids was mainly in Brazil, Mexico, and Central Asia, with the declined markets in Belgium, France, Israel, Japan, etc. Trends in truck exports 1. Truck exports The growth rate of the truck market exports has not been strong in recent years, with the market share of truck exports in the automotive export market showing a continuous slight decline. Truck exports mainly include strong demand for petrol and diesel trucks below 5 tons, and overall strong demand for diesel heavy trucks above 20 tons. 2. Characteristics of truck export market changes The top performing markets overall for truck exports have remained stable. The main export markets in 2024, such as Mexico, Algeria, Russia, etc. performed well. Markets like Turkey have shown a decline in truck exports, although the decline is small. The overall performance of the top markets in the new energy pure electric truck export market has remained stable, with large exports to Mexico, South Korea, Thailand, etc., but they are not mainstream products overall. The export market for new energy trucks to Europe has performed poorly, with sustained declines. Trends in bus exports 1. Bus exports There has been a certain decline in global bus demand in recent years, leading to a continuous decline in China's bus exports from 64,000 units in 2019 to 37,000 units in 2021. Since 2023, global demand has recovered, and China's bus exports have grown to 71,000 units in 2023. From January to August 2024, it reached 50,000 units, a 10% increase. The performance of pure electric bus exports in 2024 has declined by 10%, with a significant increase in fuel bus exports, as our bus exports are mainly to developing countries. 2. Characteristics of changes in the bus export market China's bus export markets are mainly dispersed, with a focus on underdeveloped countries, making the market complex and difficult to sustainably expand exports in an orderly manner. This year, there has been a large demand in Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Southeast Asian countries, with strong demand for buses in countries like Saudi Arabia, Peru, Vietnam, Russia, Mexico, etc. The markets with increased exports this year include Saudi Arabia, Nicaragua, Kuwait, etc., while the declining markets are developing countries like South Africa with a significant decrease. The new energy bus export market is relatively small, with significant data fluctuations, and weak performance in key regions such as Thailand. The export buses to Nepal, South Korea, and Japan are stronger. Overseas demand for the electrification of Chinese buses is not very high.