Northeast: Market sentiment is the key factor, whether seasonal or non-current determinants.

Northeast released a research report stating that the median increase, average increase, and distribution of winning percentages in the market before the National Day holiday showed weakening trends, while the market tended to strengthen after the holiday; as the National Day holiday approached, the probability of a decline increased. The core of the seasonal characteristics of the National Day lies in: first, the uncertainty caused by the longer National Day holiday leads to risk avoidance operations, resulting in a decrease in overall trading volume; second, the short-term economic fluctuations caused by travel and real estate demands during the National Day period. Defensive styles such as coal and petrochemicals dominated before the National Day, while growth styles such as electronics and pharmaceuticals took over after the holiday. Northeast believes that market sentiment is the key factor, rather than seasonal or non-current determinants. The market tends to be weak before the National Day, while the probability of strengthening after the National Day is higher. Before the National Day holiday, the market's median increase, average increase, and winning percentage distribution all showed a weakening trend. Taking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as an example, only the median values of T-20 from 2005 to 2023 and 2010 to 2023 were positive at 0.64% and 0.51%, respectively; the rest of the time periods had negative changes. The market often strengthens after the National Day, with only T+10 from 2016 to 2023 having a negative average of -0.40%, while the other time periods saw increases. As the National Day holiday approaches, the probability of a decline increases. The closer to the National Day, the higher the probability of a decline, with T-10

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